Current ENSO Information

ENSO Update

19 February 2004

Summary

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are near or slightly above average, and overall conditions remain near neutral. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, while chances of El Niño are slightly above their average, it is most likely that near-neutral conditions will continue through the first half of 2004.

General Discussion

Overall conditions in the tropical Pacific continue to be near neutral, although sea surface temperatures remain somewhat above average from the date line westward.
Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, the majority predict near-average to slightly warmer than average sea surface temperatures to continue. (Note 1). Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the chance for development of La Niña conditions is believed to be less than that of an average year (i.e. less than 25%). The chance for El Niño developement is slightly greater than that of an average year from March 2004 through northern summer, but still less than 50%. The chance for neutral conditions remains equal to or greater than that of an average year (equal to or greater than 50%) into mid-2004.

In summary, current observations and model forecasts suggest that ocean conditions will most likely remain near neutral through the first half of 2004.
 

Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.