Current ENSO Information
ENSO Update
20 November 2003
Summary
Overall conditions in the tropical Pacific are currently near-neutral,
with sea surface temperatures near to slightly above average.
Based on the latest observations and forecasts, there is a high
likelihod
that near-neutral conditions will continue through the remainder of
2003
and into the first few months of 2004.
General Discussion
Near-neutral to slightly warmer than average conditions
are
now observed in the
equatorial
Pacific, with ocean temperatures near to or less than one-half degree C
above average in the east-central Pacific. The below average ocean
temperatures that had developed
in the
east-central
and eastern equatorial Pacific between late April and early June
returned to
near
average by July. Currently, near to slightly above average temperatures
occupy much of the
east-central tropical Pacific, and above normal temperatures
extend from near the dateline westward. Near neutral
to slightly warmer than normal temperatures are observed near the South
American coast.
Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast
models, the
majority predict near-average to slightly warmer than average sea
surface temperatures to continue. (Note
1). Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of
the
ocean surface and subsurface, the chance for development of La
Niña conditions is believed to be less than
that of an average
year (i.e. less than 25%). The chance for El Niño developement
is slightly greater than that of an average year between the months of
February and June, but no higher than 40%. The chance for neutral
conditions remains equal to or greater
than that of an average year (equal to or greater than 50%) into early
2004.
In summary, current observations and model forecasts
suggest
that ocean
conditions will most likely remain near neutral during the remainder of
2003 and into early 2004.
Note 1 - Only models
that
produce a
new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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