Current ENSO Information
ENSO Update
16 October 2003
Summary
Overall conditions in the tropical Pacific are currently near-neutral,
with sea surface temperatures near to slightly above average.
Based on the latest observations and forecasts, there is a high
likelihod
that near-neutral conditions will continue through the remainder of
2003
and into the first few months of 2004.
General Discussion
Near-neutral to slightly warmer than average conditions are
now observed in the
equatorial
Pacific. The below average ocean temperatures that developed in the
east-central
and eastern equatorial Pacific during May and early June returned to
near
average by July. Currently, near to slightly above average temperatures
occupy much of the
east-central tropical Pacific, and above normal temperatures
extend from near the dateline westward. Near neutral to slightly below
normal
temperatures continue near the South American coast.
Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast
models, the
majority predict near-average sea surface temperatures to continue,
although
a few models suggest slightly warmer than average conditions. (Note
1). Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of
the
ocean surface and subsurface, the chance for development of La
Niña or El Niño conditions is believed to be less than
that of an average
year, (i.e. less than 25%), and the chance for neutral
conditions greater
than that of an average year (greater than 50%).
In summary, current observations and model forecasts suggest
that ocean
conditions will most likely remain near neutral during the remainder of
2003 and into early 2004.
Note 1 - Only models that
produce a
new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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