Current ENSO Information
ENSO Update
21 August 2003
Summary
Overall ENSO conditions are currently near-neutral. Ocean temperatures
in the far eastern equatorial Pacific are below average, while temperatures
in the east-central and central Pacific are neutral to above average.
The latest observations and forecasts indicate a high likelihood that near-neutral
conditions will continue during the remainder of 2003.
General Discussion
The ocean temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that
had been below average during May and early June returned to near average
by July. Below normal temperatures continue only in the very far
eastern tropical Pacific, while average to above average temperatures are
currently observed in the east-central and central part of the basin. Overall,
near-neutral conditions are now observed in the equatorial Pacific.
Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical prediction models, the
majority predict near-average sea surface temperatures, although a very
few suggest development of weak El Niño conditions. (Note
1). Based on the model forecasts and the current observations
of the ocean surface and subsurface, the chances for El Niño or
La Niña are believed to be less than those of an average year (i.e.
less than 25%), and the chances for neutral conditions greater than those
of an average year (i.e. greater than 50%).
In summary, current observations and model forecasts suggest that ocean
conditions will most likely remain near neutral during the remainder of
2003.
Note 1 - Only models that produce a
new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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