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Current ENSO Information
ENSO Update17 July 2003
SummaryOverall ENSO conditions are currently near-neutral. Ocean temperatures in the far eastern equatorial Pacific are below average, while temperatures in the east-central and central Pacific are neutral to above average. The latest observations and forecasts no longer indicate a significant preference for development of La Niña conditions over the next few months. A continuation of neutral conditions appears most likely. General DiscussionThe ocean temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that had been below normal during May and June returned to near average by early July. Below normal temperatures continue only in the far eastern tropical Pacific, while average to above average temperatures are currently observed in the east-central and central part of the basin. Overall, near-neutral conditions currently exist in the equatorial Pacific.A large set of dynamical and statistical models have mixed indications regarding what will occur during the remainder of the year. Many of them show near to slightly below average sea surface temperatures, while a few still indicate a development of La Niña conditions. Very few indicate an onset of El Niño conditions. (Note 1). Based on the model forecasts and the current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the chances for La Niña are believed to be only slightly greater than those of an average year. The most likely scenario is for the continuation of neutral conditions. In summary, current observations and model forecasts suggest that ocean conditions will most likely remain near neutral, with an estimated 30% probability of La Niña development during the coming few months. Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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