ENSO Prediction Papers
[See Prediction Sites and Climate Diagnostic Links at end of bibliography]
Adams, R.M., K.J. Bryant, B.A. McCarl, D.M. Legler, J. O'Brien, A. Solow, 1995: The value of improved ENSO forecasts: an example from U.S. agriculture. Contemporary Economic Policy, 13, 10-19.
Agrawala, S., K. Broad, and D.H. Guston, 2001: Integrating climate forecasts and societal decision making: Challenges to an emergent boundary organization. Science, Technology, and Human Values, 26, 454-477.
Allen, M., 1999: Do-it-yourself climate prediction. Nature, 401, 642.
American Meteorological Society, 2001: AMS statement: Seasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 82, 705–708.
American Meteorological Society, 2003: Policy discussions at the AMS policy forum on improving responses to climate predictions. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 84, 1697–1702
A., 2003: Targeting climate forecasts for agricultural applications in sub-Saharan
Anderson, J, H. van den Dool, A. Barnston, W. Chen, W. Stern, and J. Ploshay, 1999: Present-Day Capabilities of Numerical and Statistical Models for Atmospheric Extratropical Seasonal Simulation and Prediction. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 80, 1350-1361.
Atger, F., 1999: The Skill of Ensemble Prediction Systems. Mon Wea. Rev., 127, 1941–1953.
Ballabrera-Poy, J., A. J. Busalacchi, and R. Murtugudde, 2001: Application of a reduced-order Kalman filter to initialize a coupled atmosphere–ocean model: impact on the prediction of El Niño. J. Climate, 14, 1720–1737.
Ballabrera-Poy, J.; R.Murtugudde and A. J.Busalacchi, 2002: On the potential impact of sea surface salinity observations on ENSO predictions. J. Geophys. Res
Balmaseda, M.A., D.L.T. Anderson, and M.K. Davey, 1994: ENSO prediction using a dynamical ocean model coupled to statistical atmospheres. Tellus, 46A, 497-511.
Balmaseda, M.A., D.L.T. Anderson, and M.K. Davey, 1994: Seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill. Ocean Modeling, 104, 1-6 + Figures and Hadley Centre Report # CRTN 51.
Balmaseda, M.A., M.K. Davey, and D.L.T. Anderson, 1995: Decadal and seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill. J. Climate, 8, 2705-2715.
Barreiro, M. and P.Chang, 2004: A linear tendency correction technique for improving seasonal prediction of SST. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, doi:10.1029/2004GL021148, 2004
Barnett, T.P., and K. Hasselmann, 1979: Techniques of linear prediction, with applicatioons to oceanic and atmospheric fields in the tropical Pacific. Reviews of Geophys. and Space Phys., 17, 949-968.
Barnett, T.P., 1984: Statistical relations between ocean/atmosphere fluctuations in the tropical Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 11, 1043-1058.
Barnett, T.P., 1984: Prediction of the El Niño of 1982-83. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1403-1407.
Barnett, T.P., N. Graham, M. Cane, S. Zebiak, S. Dolan, J. O'Brien, and D. Legler, 1988: On the prediction of the El Niño of 1986-1987. Science, 241, 192-196.
Barnett, T.P., M. Latif, N. Graham, M. Flügel, S. Pazan, and W. White, 1992: ENSO and ENSO related predictability. Part I: Prediction of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature with a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 6, 1545-1566.
Barnett, T.P., L. Bengtsson, K. Arpe, M. Flugel, N. Graham, J. Ritchie, E. Roeckner, U. Schlese, U. Schulzweida, and M. Tyree, 1994: Forecasting global ENSO-related climate anomalies. Tellus, 46A, 398-418.
Barnett, T.P., and M Tyree, 1995: Climate hindcast skill and model resolution.
Barnston, A.G., and C.F. Ropelewski, 1992: Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis. J. Climate, 5, 1316-1345.
Barnston, A.G., H.M. van Dool, S.E. Zebiak, T.P. Barnett, M. Ji, D.R. Rodenhuis, M.A. Cane, A. Leetmaa, N.E. Graham, C.R. Ropelewski, V.E. Kousky, E.O. O'Lenic, and R.E. Livesey, 1994: Long-lead seasonal forecasts-where do we stand? Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 75, 2097-2114.
Barnston, A. G., 1992: Correspondence among the correlation, RMSE, and Heidke forecast verification measures; refinement of the Heidke score. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 699–709.
Barnston, A.G., and R.E.
Livezey, 1991: Statistical Prediction of January February Mean Northern Hemisphere
Lower Tropospheric Climate From The 11-Year Solar Cycle and The Southern Oscillation
For West and
Barnston, A. G., 1994: Linear statistical short-term climate predictive skill in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Climate, 7, 1513–1564.
A. G., W. Thiao, and V. Kumar,1996: Long-lead forecasts of seasonal precipitation
Barnston, A. G., and H. M. van den Dool, 1993: A degeneracy in cross-validated skill in regression-based forecasts. J. Climate, 6, 963–977.
Barnston, A.G., M. H. Glantz, and Y. He, 1999: Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997–98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 80, 217-243.
Barnston, A.G., A. Leetmaa, V.E. Kousky, R.E. Livezey, E.A. O’Lenic, H. Van den Dool, J. Wagner, and D.A. Unger, 1999: NCEP Forecasts of the El Niño of 1997-98 and its U.S. Impacts, Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 80, 1829-1852.
Barnston, A. G., Y.He, and D. A. Unger, 2000: A forecast product that maximizes utility for state–of–the–art seasonal climate prediction. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 81, 1271–1280.
Barnston, A. G., S. J., Mason, L., Goddard, D. G. Dewitt, and S. E., Zebiak, 2003: Multimodel ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at IRI. Bull. Am. Met .Soc. 84, 1783-1796.
Barnston, A. G., A. Kumar, L. Goddard, M. P.Hoerling, 2005: Improving seasonal prediction practices through attribution of climate variability. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 86, 59-72.
R., 1996: The potential of climate prediction for
Battisti, D.S., and E.S.
Sarachik, 1995: Understanding and Predicting ENSO. For the
Bengtsson, L., U. Schlese, E. Roeckner, M. Latif, T.P. Barnett, and N. Graham,1993: A two-tiered approach to climate forecasting. Science, 261, 1026-1029.
Bengtsson, L., K. Arpe, E. Roeckner, and U. Schulzweida, 1996: Climate predictability Climate predictability experiments with a general circulation model. Climate Dynamics, 12, 261-278.
Bennett, A.F., B.S. Chua, D.E. Harrison, and M.J. McPhaden, 1998: Generalized inversion of tropical atmosphere-ocean data and a coupled model of the tropical Pacific. J. Climate, 11, 1768-1792.
Behringer, D.W., M. Ji, and A. Leetmaa, 1998: An improved coupled model for ENSO prediction and implications for ocean initialization. Part I: The ocean data assimilation system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1013-1021.
Behringer, D.W., M. Ji, and A. Leetmaa, 1998: An improved coupled model for ENSO prediction and implications for ocean initialization. Part II: The coupled model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1022-1034.
Berliner, L. M., C. K. Wikle, and N. Cressie, 2000: Long-Lead Prediction of Pacific SSTs via Bayesian Dynamic Modeling., J. Climate , 13, 3953–3968.
Betsill, M.M, M.H. Glantz, and K. Crandall, 1997: Preparing for El Niño-What role for forecasts. Environment, 39, 7-29.
Blumenthal, M.B., 1991: Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 4, 766-784.
Blumenthal, M.B., Y. Xue and M.A. Cane, 1992: "Predictability of an ocean/atmosphere model using adjoint model analysis," In Proceeding of the Workshop on Predictability, 13-15 November 1991. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Boer, G.J., 2000: A study of atmosphere-ocean predictability on long time scales. Climate Dynamics, 16, 469-477.
Boer, G.J., 2003: Predictability as a function of scale. Atmos.-Ocean, 41, 203–215
Boer, G.J., 2004: Long-timescale potential predictability in an ensemble of coupled climate models.
Boffetta, G., M. Cencini, M. Falcioni, and A. Vulpiani, 2002: Predicatbility: a way to characterize complexity. Physics Reports, 356, 367-474.
Boone, R.B., K. A. Galvin, M. B. Coughenour, J. W. Hudson, P. J. Weisberg, C. H. Vogel, and J. E. Ellis, 2004: Ecosystem modeling adds value to a South African climate forecast. Climatic Change, 64, 317-340.
Brankovic, C., T.N. Palmer, and L. Ferranti, 1994: Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations. J. Climate, 7, 217-237.
Brankovic, C., and T.N. Palmer, 1997: Atmospheric seasonal predictability and estimates of ensemble size. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 859-874.
Brankovic, C., and T.N. Palmer, 2000: Seasonal skill and predictability of ECMWF PROVOST ensembles. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 126, 2035-2067.
Briggs, W.M., and D.S. Wilks, 1996a: Estimating monthly and seasonal distributions of temperature and precipitation using the new CPC long-range forecasts. J. Climate, 9, 818-828.
W.M., and D.S. Wilks, 1996b: Extension of the
Broad, K., and S. Agrawala, 2000: The Ethiopian Food Crisis-Uses and limits of climate forecasts. Science, 289, 1693-1694.
Broad, K., a. S. P. Pfaff, and m. H. Glantz, 2002: Effective and equitable dissemination of seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts: policy implications from the Peruvian fishery during El Niño 1997–98. Climatic Change 54, 415–438.
Brunner, A.D., 2002: El Niño and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air? Rev. of Economics and Statistics, 84, 176-183.
Buizer, J.L., J. Foster, and D. Lund, 2000: Global impacts and regional actions: preparing for the 1997-98 El Niño. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 81, 2121-2139.
Cai, M., E. Kalnay, and Z. Toth, 2003: Bred vectors of the Zebiak–Cane Model and their potential application to ENSO predictions. J. Climate, 16, 40–56
Cane, M.A., and S.E. Zebiak, 1989: Dynamical forecasts of the 1986-1987 ENSO with a coupled model. In Proceeding of the thirteenth annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop. U.S. Department of Commerce, March 1989, 500+xii pp.
Cane, M., and S.E. Zebiak, 1987: Prediction of El Niño events using a physical model. In Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability, H. Cattle, ed., Royal Meteorological Society Press, 153-182.
Cane, M.A., S.E. Zebiak and S.C. Dolan, 1986: Experimental forecasts of El Niño. Nature, 321, 827-832.
M.A., 1991: Forecasting El Niño with a geophysical model. In Teleconnections
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M.A., 1993: Tropical Pacific ENSO models: ENSO as a mode of the coupled system
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Cane, M.A., G. Eshel, and R.W. Buckland, 1994: Forecasting Zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature. Nature, 370, 204-205.
Cañizares, R., A. Kaplan, M.A. Cane, and D. Chen, 2001: Use of data assimilation via low-order models for the initialization of El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictions. J. Geophys. Res., 106 , 30,947-30,960.
Cantelaube, P., J.-M. Terres,
2005: Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in
Carson, D.J., 1998: Seasonal forecasting. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 124, 1-26.
I.F.A., C.K. Folland, and A.W. Colman, 2002: Note on “Predictability of
Challinor, A. J., J. M. Slingo, T. R. Wheeler, and F. J. Doblas Reyes, 2005: Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles. Tellus, 57A, 498-512.
Chang, P, C. Penland, L. Ji, H. Li, and L. Matrosova, 1998: Prediction of Atlantic sea surface temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1197-1200.
Chang, Y., S.D. Schubert, and M.J. Suarez, 2000: Boreal winter predictions with the GEOS-2 GCM: The role of boundary forcing and initial conditions. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 126, 2293-2322.
Chang, P., R. Saravanan, T. DelSole, and F. Wang, 2004: Predictability of linear coupled systems. Part I: Theoretical analyses. J. Climate 17 1474–1486.
Chang, P., R. Saravanan, F. Wang, and L. Ji, 2004: Predictability of linear coupled systems. Part II: An application to a simple model of tropical Atlantic variability. J. Climate, 17, 1487–1503
Chaves, R. R., R. S. Ross, and T. N. Krishnamurti, 2005: Weather and seasonal climate prediction for South America using a multi-model superensemble. Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1881-1914.
Chen, D., S.E. Zebiak, A.J. Busalacchi, and M.A. Cane, 1995: An improved procedure for El Niño forecasting. Science, 269, 1699-1702.
Chen, D., S.E. Zebiak, M.A. Cane, and A.J. Busalacchi, 1997: Initialization and predictability of a coupled ENSO forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 773-788.
Chen, D., M.A. Cane, S.E. Zebiak, and A. Kaplan, 1998: The impact of sea level data assimilation on the Lamont model prediction of the 1997/8 El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 2837-2840.
Chen, D., M.A. Cane, and S.E. Zebiak, 1998: The impact of NSCAT winds on predicting the 1997/8 El Niño: A case study with the Lamont model. J. Geophys. Res., submitted.
Chen, D., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, R.Cañizares, and A. Kaplan, 2000: Bias correction of an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 2585-2588.
Chen, D., 2003:A comparison of wind products in the context of ENSO prediction. Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 30 No. 3. DOI10.1029/2002GL016121
Chen, Y-Q., D.S. Battisti, T.N. Palmer, J. Barsugli, and E.S. Sarachik, 1995: A study of the predictability of tropical Pacific SST in a coupled atmosphere/ocean model using singular vector analysis: the role of the annual cycle and the ENSO cycle. Mon Wea. Rev., 125, 831-845.
Y-Q., 1996: Predictability of ENSO: Optimal error growth and forecast skill.
Chen, W.Y., and H.M. Van den Dool, 1997: Atmospheric predictability of seasonal, annual, and decadal climate means and the role of the ENSO cycle: A model study. J. Climate, 10, 1236-1254.
Chen, W.Y., and H.M. Van den Dool, 1999: Significant change of extratropical natural variability and potential predictability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Tellus, 51A, 790–802
Chen, C.-C., B. McCarl and H. Hill, 2002: Agricultural value of enso information under alternative phase definition. Climatic Change 54: 305–325.
Chen, D., M. A. Cane, A. Kaplan, S. E. Zebiak & D. Huan, 2004: Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years. Nature, 428, 733-736.
Clark, R. and M. Déque, 2003: Conditional probability seasonal predictions of precipitation. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 129, 179-193.
Clarke, A. J. and S. Van Gorder, 2001: ENSO prediction using an ENSO trigger and a proxy for western equatorial Pacific warm pool movement. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 579-582.
Clarke, A. J. and S. Van Gorder, 2003: improving El Niño prediction using a space-time integration of Indo-Pacific winds and equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat content. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, doi: 10.1029/2002GL016673.
Cohen, J., 2003: Introducing sub-seasonal spatial and temporal resolution to winter climate prediction. Geophys. Res. Lett. Vol. 30 No. 1. DOI 10.1029/2002GL016066
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Collins, M., 2002: Climate predictability on interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem. Climate Dynamics, 19, 671–692.
Collins, M. and M. R. Allen, 2002: Assessing the relative roles of initial and boundary conditions in interannual to decadal climate predictability J. Climate, 15, 3104–3109.
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