Climate Prediction -> Forecast Bibliography


ENSO Prediction Papers

 

[See Prediction Sites and Climate Diagnostic Links at end of bibliography]

 

Adams, R.M., K.J. Bryant, B.A. McCarl, D.M. Legler, J. O'Brien, A. Solow, 1995: The value of improved ENSO forecasts: an example from U.S. agriculture. Contemporary Economic Policy, 13, 10-19.

 

Agrawala, S., K. Broad, and D.H. Guston, 2001: Integrating climate forecasts and societal decision making: Challenges to an emergent boundary organization. Science, Technology, and Human Values, 26, 454-477.

 

Allen, M., 1999: Do-it-yourself climate prediction. Nature, 401, 642.

 

American Meteorological Society, 2001: AMS statement: Seasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction.  Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 82, 705–708.

 

American Meteorological Society, 2003: Policy discussions at the AMS policy forum on improving responses to climate predictions. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 84, 1697–1702

 

Amisah-Arthur, A., 2003: Targeting climate forecasts for agricultural applications in sub-Saharan Africa: Situating farmers in user space. Climate Change, 58, 73-92.

 

Anderson, J.L., and W.F. Stern, 1996: Evaluating the potential predictive utility of ensemble forecasts. J. Climate, 9, 260-269.

 

Anderson, J.L., and J.J. Ploshay, 2000: Impact of initial conditions on seasonal simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 126, 2241-2264.

 

Anderson, J, H. van den Dool, A. Barnston, W. Chen,  W. Stern, and J. Ploshay, 1999: Present-Day Capabilities of Numerical and Statistical Models for Atmospheric Extratropical Seasonal Simulation and Prediction. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 80, 1350-1361.

 

Atger, F., 1999: The Skill of Ensemble Prediction Systems. Mon Wea. Rev., 127, 1941–1953.

 

Ballabrera-Poy, J.,  A. J. Busalacchi, and R. Murtugudde, 2001: Application of a reduced-order Kalman filter to initialize a coupled atmosphere–ocean model: impact on the prediction of El Niño. J. Climate, 14, 1720–1737.

 

Ballabrera-Poy, J.; R.Murtugudde and A. J.Busalacchi, 2002: On the potential impact of sea surface salinity observations on ENSO predictions. J. Geophys. Res

DOI 10.1029/2001JC000834.

 

Balmaseda, M.A., D.L.T. Anderson, and M.K. Davey, 1994: ENSO prediction using a dynamical ocean model coupled to statistical atmospheres. Tellus, 46A, 497-511.

 

Balmaseda, M.A., D.L.T. Anderson, and M.K. Davey, 1994: Seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill. Ocean Modeling, 104, 1-6 + Figures and Hadley Centre Report # CRTN 51.

 

Balmaseda, M.A., M.K. Davey, and D.L.T. Anderson, 1995: Decadal and seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill. J. Climate, 8, 2705-2715.

 

Barreiro, M. and P.Chang, 2004: A linear tendency correction technique for improving seasonal prediction of SST. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, doi:10.1029/2004GL021148, 2004

 

Barnett, T.P., and K. Hasselmann, 1979: Techniques of linear prediction, with applicatioons to oceanic and atmospheric fields in the tropical Pacific. Reviews of Geophys. and Space Phys., 17, 949-968.

 

Barnett, T.P., 1984: Statistical relations between ocean/atmosphere fluctuations in the tropical Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 11, 1043-1058.

 

Barnett, T.P., 1984: Prediction of the El Niño of 1982-83. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1403-1407.

 

Barnett, T.P., N. Graham, M. Cane, S. Zebiak, S. Dolan, J. O'Brien, and D. Legler, 1988: On the prediction of the El Niño of 1986-1987. Science, 241, 192-196.

 

Barnett, T.P., M. Latif, N. Graham, M. Flügel, S. Pazan, and W. White, 1992: ENSO and ENSO related predictability. Part I: Prediction of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature with a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 6, 1545-1566.

 

Barnett, T.P., 1994: Monte Carlo climate forecasting. J. Climate, 8, 1005-1022.

 

Barnett, T.P., L. Bengtsson, K. Arpe, M. Flugel, N. Graham, J. Ritchie, E. Roeckner, U. Schlese, U. Schulzweida, and M. Tyree, 1994: Forecasting global ENSO-related climate anomalies. Tellus, 46A, 398-418.

 

Barnett, T.P., and M Tyree, 1995: Climate hindcast skill and model resolution.

 

Barnston, A.G., and C.F. Ropelewski, 1992: Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis. J. Climate, 5, 1316-1345.

 

Barnston, A.G., H.M. van Dool, S.E. Zebiak, T.P. Barnett, M. Ji, D.R. Rodenhuis, M.A. Cane, A. Leetmaa, N.E. Graham, C.R. Ropelewski, V.E. Kousky, E.O. O'Lenic, and R.E. Livesey, 1994: Long-lead seasonal forecasts-where do we stand? Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 75, 2097-2114.

 

Barnston, A. G., 1992: Correspondence among the correlation, RMSE, and Heidke forecast verification measures; refinement of the Heidke score. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 699–709.

 

Barnston, A.G., and R.E. Livezey, 1991: Statistical Prediction of January February Mean Northern Hemisphere Lower Tropospheric Climate From The 11-Year Solar Cycle and The Southern Oscillation For West and East QBO Phases. J.Climate, 4, 249-262.

 

Barnston, A. G., 1994: Linear statistical short-term climate predictive skill in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Climate, 7, 1513–1564.

 

Barnston, A. G., W. Thiao, and V. Kumar,1996: Long-lead forecasts of seasonal precipitation in Africa using CCA. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 506-520.

 

Barnston, A. G., and H. M. van den Dool, 1993: A degeneracy in cross-validated skill in regression-based forecasts. J. Climate, 6, 963–977.

 

Barnston, A.G., M. H. Glantz, and Y. He, 1999: Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997–98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 80, 217-243.

 

Barnston, A.G., A. Leetmaa, V.E. Kousky, R.E. Livezey, E.A. O’Lenic, H. Van den Dool, J. Wagner, and D.A. Unger, 1999: NCEP Forecasts of the El Niño of 1997-98 and its U.S. Impacts, Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 80, 1829-1852.

 

Barnston, A. G., Y.He, and D. A. Unger, 2000: A forecast product that maximizes utility for state–of–the–art seasonal climate prediction.  Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 81, 1271–1280.

 

Barnston, A. G., S. J., Mason, L., Goddard, D. G. Dewitt, and S. E., Zebiak, 2003: Multimodel ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at IRI.  Bull. Am. Met .Soc. 84, 1783-1796.

 

Barnston, A. G., A. Kumar, L. Goddard, M. P.Hoerling, 2005: Improving seasonal prediction practices through attribution of climate variability. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 86, 59-72.

 

Basher, R., 1996: The potential of climate prediction for New Zealand. Water and Atmosphere, 4, 15-19.

 

Battisti, D.S., and E.S. Sarachik, 1995: Understanding and Predicting ENSO. For the US National Report to IUGG: Contributions in Oceanography (1991-1994), Revs. Geophys. (Supp.), 1367-1376. http://earth.agu.org/revgeophys/battis01/battis01.html

 

Bengtsson, L., U. Schlese, E. Roeckner, M. Latif, T.P. Barnett, and N. Graham,1993: A two-tiered approach to climate forecasting. Science, 261, 1026-1029.

 

Bengtsson, L., K. Arpe, E. Roeckner, and U. Schulzweida, 1996: Climate predictability Climate predictability experiments with a general circulation model. Climate Dynamics, 12, 261-278.

 

Bennett, A.F., B.S. Chua, D.E. Harrison, and M.J. McPhaden, 1998: Generalized inversion of tropical atmosphere-ocean data and a coupled model of the tropical Pacific. J. Climate, 11, 1768-1792.

 

Behringer, D.W., M. Ji, and A. Leetmaa, 1998: An improved coupled model for ENSO prediction and implications for ocean initialization. Part I: The ocean data assimilation system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1013-1021.

 

Behringer, D.W., M. Ji, and A. Leetmaa, 1998: An improved coupled model for ENSO prediction and implications for ocean initialization. Part II: The coupled model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1022-1034.

 

Berliner, L. M., C. K. Wikle, and N. Cressie, 2000: Long-Lead Prediction of Pacific SSTs via Bayesian Dynamic Modeling., J. Climate , 13, 3953–3968.

 

Betsill, M.M, M.H. Glantz, and K. Crandall, 1997:  Preparing for El Niño-What role for forecasts. Environment, 39, 7-29.

 

Blumenthal, M.B., 1991: Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 4, 766-784.

 

Blumenthal, M.B., Y. Xue and M.A. Cane, 1992: "Predictability of an ocean/atmosphere model using adjoint model analysis," In Proceeding of the Workshop on Predictability, 13-15 November 1991. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

 

Boer, G.J., 2000: A study of atmosphere-ocean predictability on long time scales. Climate Dynamics, 16, 469-477.

 

Boer, G.J., 2003: Predictability as a function of scale. Atmos.-Ocean, 41, 203–215

 

Boer, G.J., 2004: Long-timescale potential predictability in an ensemble of coupled climate models.

 

Boffetta, G., M. Cencini, M. Falcioni, and A. Vulpiani, 2002: Predicatbility: a way to characterize complexity. Physics Reports, 356, 367-474.

 

Boone, R.B., K. A. Galvin, M. B. Coughenour, J. W. Hudson,  P. J. Weisberg, C. H. Vogel,  and J. E. Ellis, 2004: Ecosystem modeling adds value to a South African climate forecast. Climatic Change, 64, 317-340.

 

Brankovic, C., T.N. Palmer, and L. Ferranti, 1994: Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations. J. Climate, 7, 217-237.

 

Brankovic, C., and T.N. Palmer, 1997: Atmospheric seasonal predictability and estimates of ensemble size. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 859-874.

 

Brankovic, C., and T.N. Palmer, 2000: Seasonal skill and predictability of ECMWF PROVOST ensembles. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 126, 2035-2067.

 

Briggs, W.M., and D.S. Wilks, 1996a: Estimating monthly and seasonal distributions of temperature and precipitation using the new CPC long-range forecasts. J. Climate, 9, 818-828.

 

Briggs, W.M., and D.S. Wilks, 1996b: Extension of the Climate Prediction Center long-lead temperature and precipitation outlooks to general weather statistics. J. Climate, 9, 3496-3504.

 

Broad, K., and S. Agrawala, 2000: The Ethiopian Food Crisis-Uses and limits of climate forecasts. Science, 289, 1693-1694.

 

Broad, K., a. S. P. Pfaff, and m. H. Glantz, 2002: Effective and equitable dissemination of seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts: policy implications from the Peruvian fishery during El Niño 1997–98. Climatic Change 54, 415–438.

 

Brunner, A.D., 2002: El Niño and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air? Rev. of Economics and Statistics, 84, 176-183.

 

Buizer, J.L., J. Foster, and D. Lund, 2000: Global impacts and regional actions: preparing for the 1997-98 El Niño. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 81, 2121-2139.

 

Cai, M., E. Kalnay, and Z. Toth, 2003: Bred vectors of the Zebiak–Cane Model and their potential application to ENSO predictions. J. Climate, 16, 40–56

 

Cane, M.A., and S.E. Zebiak, 1989: Dynamical forecasts of the 1986-1987 ENSO with a coupled model. In Proceeding of the thirteenth annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop. U.S. Department of Commerce, March 1989, 500+xii pp.

 

Cane, M., and S.E. Zebiak, 1987: Prediction of El Niño events using a physical model. In Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability, H. Cattle, ed., Royal Meteorological Society Press, 153-182.

 

Cane, M.A., S.E. Zebiak and S.C. Dolan, 1986: Experimental forecasts of El Niño. Nature, 321, 827-832.

 

Cane, M.A., 1991: Forecasting El Niño with a geophysical model. In Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies, M.H. Glantz, R.W. Katz, and N. Nicholls, eds. Cambridge University Press, 345-369.

 

Cane, M..A. and E.S. Sarachik, Chairpersons of the Provisional Working Group, 1991: Prospectus for a TOGA Program on seasonal-to-interannual prediction. NOAA Climate and Global change Report No. 4, UCAR publications, 46pp.

 

Cane, M.A., 1993: Tropical Pacific ENSO models: ENSO as a mode of the coupled system in Climate System Modeling, K. Trenberth, ed., Cambridge Univ. Press. pp. 583-614.

 

Cane, M.A., G. Eshel, and R.W. Buckland, 1994: Forecasting Zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature. Nature, 370, 204-205.

 

Cañizares, R., A. Kaplan, M.A. Cane, and D. Chen, 2001: Use of data assimilation via low-order models for the initialization of El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictions. J. Geophys. Res., 106 , 30,947-30,960.

 

Cantelaube, P.,  J.-M. Terres, 2005: Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe. Tellus, 57A, 476-487.

 

Carson, D.J., 1998: Seasonal forecasting. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 124, 1-26.

 

Carton, J.A., and J. Shukla, 1991: Predictability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. J. Marine. Sys., 1, 299-313.

 

Cavalcanti, I.F.A., C.K. Folland, and A.W. Colman, 2002: Note on “Predictability of Northeast Brazil Rainfall and Real-Time Forecast Skill, 1987–98.” J. Climate, 15, 1993-1996.

 

Challinor, A. J.,  J. M. Slingo, T. R. Wheeler, and F. J. Doblas Reyes, 2005: Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles. Tellus, 57A, 498-512.

 

Chang, P, C. Penland, L. Ji, H. Li, and L. Matrosova, 1998: Prediction of Atlantic sea surface temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1197-1200.

 

Chang, Y., S.D. Schubert, and M.J. Suarez, 2000: Boreal winter predictions with the GEOS-2 GCM: The role of boundary forcing and initial conditions. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 126, 2293-2322.

 

Chang, P., R. Saravanan, T. DelSole, and F. Wang, 2004: Predictability of linear coupled systems. Part I: Theoretical analyses. J. Climate 17 1474–1486.

 

Chang, P., R. Saravanan, F. Wang, and L. Ji, 2004: Predictability of linear coupled systems. Part II: An application to a simple model of tropical Atlantic variability. J. Climate, 17, 1487–1503

 

Chaves, R. R., R. S. Ross, and T. N. Krishnamurti, 2005: Weather and seasonal climate prediction for South America using a multi-model superensemble. Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1881-1914.

 

Chen, D., S.E. Zebiak, A.J. Busalacchi, and M.A. Cane, 1995: An improved procedure for El Niño forecasting. Science, 269, 1699-1702.

 

Chen, D., S.E. Zebiak, M.A. Cane, and A.J. Busalacchi, 1997: Initialization and predictability of a coupled ENSO forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 773-788.

 

Chen, D., M.A. Cane, S.E. Zebiak, and A. Kaplan, 1998: The impact of sea level data assimilation on the Lamont model prediction of the 1997/8 El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 2837-2840.

 

Chen, D., M.A. Cane, and S.E. Zebiak, 1998: The impact of NSCAT winds on predicting the 1997/8 El Niño: A case study with the Lamont model. J. Geophys. Res., submitted.

 

Chen, D., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, R.Cañizares, and A. Kaplan, 2000: Bias correction of an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 2585-2588.

 

Chen, D., 2003:A comparison of wind products in the context of ENSO prediction. Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 30 No. 3.  DOI10.1029/2002GL016121

 

Chen, Y-Q., D.S. Battisti, T.N. Palmer, J. Barsugli, and E.S. Sarachik, 1995: A study of the predictability of tropical Pacific SST in a coupled atmosphere/ocean model using singular vector analysis: the role of the annual cycle and the ENSO cycle. Mon Wea. Rev., 125, 831-845.

 

Chen, Y-Q., 1996: Predictability of ENSO: Optimal error growth and forecast skill. Ph.D. thesis, University of Washington, 155pp.

 

Chen, W.Y., and H.M. Van den Dool, 1997: Atmospheric predictability of seasonal, annual, and decadal climate means and the role of the ENSO cycle: A model study. J. Climate, 10, 1236-1254.

 

Chen, W.Y., and H.M. Van den Dool, 1999: Significant change of extratropical natural variability and potential predictability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Tellus, 51A, 790–802

 

Chen, C.-C., B. McCarl and H. Hill, 2002: Agricultural value of enso information under alternative phase definition. Climatic Change 54: 305–325.

 

Chen, D., M. A. Cane, A. Kaplan, S. E. Zebiak & D. Huan, 2004: Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years. Nature, 428, 733-736.

 

Chu, P.-S., and R.W. Katz, 1987: Measures of predictability with applications to the southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1542.

 

Clark, R. and  M. Déque, 2003:  Conditional probability seasonal predictions of precipitation.  Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 129, 179-193.

 

Clarke, A. J. and S. Van Gorder, 2001: ENSO prediction using an ENSO trigger and a proxy for western equatorial Pacific warm pool movement. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 579-582.

 

Clarke, A. J. and S. Van Gorder, 2003: improving El Niño prediction using a space-time integration of Indo-Pacific winds and equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat content. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, doi: 10.1029/2002GL016673.

 

Cohen, J., 2003: Introducing sub-seasonal spatial and temporal resolution to winter climate prediction. Geophys. Res. Lett. Vol. 30 No. 1. DOI 10.1029/2002GL016066

 

Colman, A.W., 1996: Predictions of precipitation from two global circulation models and an empirical technique. Hadley Center Ocean Applications TN # 10.

 

Colman, A.W., P. Beresford, and M.K. Davey, 2002: predictability of extreme precipitation and temperature months using the Met Office seasonal forecasting atmospheric global circulation model. Hadley Center Ocean Applications TN No. 29,

 

Collins, M., D. Frame B. Sinha, and C.Wilson, 2002: How far ahead could we predict El Niño? Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(10), 10.101029/2001GL013919.

 

Collins, M., 2002: Climate predictability on interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem. Climate Dynamics, 19, 671–692.

 

Collins, M. and M. R. Allen, 2002: Assessing the relative roles of initial and boundary conditions in interannual to decadal climate predictability J. Climate, 15, 3104–3109.

 

Crimp, S.J. and S.J. Mason, 199?: The extreme precipitation event of 11 to 16 February 1996 over South Africa. Met. and Atmos. Phys., 70, 29-42.

 

Curtis, S., R.F Adler, G. J. Huffman, and G. Gu, 2004: Westerly wind events and precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean as predictors for El Niño: Climatology and case study for the 2002–2003 El Niño. J. Geophys. Res., 109, 10.1029/2004JD004663

 

Dalcher, A., and E. Kalnay, 1987: Error growth and predictability in operational ECMWF forecasts. Tellus, 39A, 474-491.

 

Davey, M.K., D.L.T. Anderson, and S. Lawrence, 1993: A simulation of variability in ENSO forecast skill. J. Climate, 9, 240-246.

 

Davey, M.K., S. Ineson and M.A. Balmaseda, 1994: Simulation and hindcasts of tropical Pacific Ocean interannual variability. Tellus, 46A, 433-445.

 

Davey, M.K., 1996: A survey of seasonal forecasting. Met. Office Ocean Applications TN #13.

 

Davies, J.R., D.P. Rowell, and C.K. Folland, 1996: North Atlantic and European seasonal predictability using an ensemble of multi-decadal AGCM simulations. Hadley Center CRTN 70.

 

DelSole, T., 2004: Predictability and information theory. Part I: Measures of predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2425-2440.

 

DelSole, T., 2003: Predictability and information theory. Part II: Imperfect forecasts. COLA Technical Report CTR 148, 46pp.

 

Derber, J., and A. Rosati, 1989: A global oceanic data assimilation system. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 19, 1333-1347.

 

Derome, J., H. Lin,  and G. Brunet,  2005: Seasonal forecasting with a simple general circulation model: predictive skill in the AO and PNA.  J. Climate, 18, 597-609.

 

Derr, V.E., and R.J. Slutz, 1994: Prediction of El Niño Events In The Pacific By Means of Neural Networks. AI Applications, 8, 51-63.

 

Dewitte, B., D. Gushchina,; Y. duPenhoat, S. Lakeev, 2002: On the importance of subsurface variability for ENSO simulation and prediction with intermediate coupled models of the Tropical Pacific: A case study for the 1997–1998 El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(14), 10.1029/2001GL014452

 

Díez, E., C. Primo, J. A. García-Moya, J. M. Gutiérrez, and B. Orfila, 2005: Statistical and dynamical downscaling of precipitation over Spain from DEMETER seasonal forecasts. Tellus, 57A, 409-423.

 

Dirmeyer, P.A., M. J., Fennessy, and L. Marx, 2003: Low skill in dynamical prediction of boreal summer climate: grounds for looking beyond sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 16, 995-1002

 

Doblas-Reyes, F.J., M. Deque, and J.-P. Piedelievre, 2000: Multi-model spread and probabilistic seasonal forecasts in PROVOST. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 126, 2069-2087.

 

Doblas-Reyes,  F. J. , R.  Hagedorn, and T. N. Palmer, 2005: The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting II. Calibration and combination. Tellus, 57A, 234-252.

 

Dominiak, S. and P, Terray, 2005: Improvement of ENSO prediction using a linear regression model with a southern Indian Ocean sea surface temperature predictor. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, 18, 10.1029/2005GL023153

 

Dommenget, D., and D. Stammer, 2004: Assessing ENSO simulations and predictions using adjoint ocean state estimation. J. Climate, 17, 4301-4315

 

Dong, B.-W., Sutton, R. T., Jewson, S. P., O'Neill, A., and Slingo, J. M., 2000: Predictable Winter Climate in the North Atlantic Sector During the 1997-1999 ENSO Cycle Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 985-988.

 

Douville, H., and F. Chauvin, 2000: Relevance of soil moisture for seasonal climate predictions: a preliminary study. Climate Dynamics,16,719-736.

 

Droegemeier,  K.K., J. D. Smith, S. Businger, C. Doswell III, J. Doyle, C. Duffy, E. Foufoula-Georgiou, T. Graziano, L. D. James, V. Krajewski, M. LeMone, D. Lettenmaier, C. Mass, R. Pielke Sr., P. Ray, S. Rutledge, J. Schaake, and E. Zipser, 2000: Hydrological Aspects of Weather Prediction and Flood Warnings: Report of the Ninth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 81, 2665–2680.

 

Druyan, L.M., M.Fulakeza, and P.Lonergan, 2002: Dynamic downscaling of seasonal climate predictions over Brazil. J.Climate, 15, 3411-3426.

 

Ebisuzaki, W., 1995: The potential predictability in a 14-year GCM simulation. J. Climate, 8, 2749-2761.

 

Eckert, C., and M. Latif, 1997: Predictability of a Stochastically Forced Hybrid Coupled Model of El Niño. J. Climate, 10, 1488-1504.

 

Epstein, P., 1995: Saving scarce public health resources and saving lives: health sector applications of climate forecasting.

 

Everingham, Y. L., R. C. Muchow, R. C. Stone, D. H. Coomans, 2003: Using southern oscillation index phases to forecast sugarcane yields: a case study for northeastern Australia. Int. J. Climatology, 23, 1211-1218.

Fan, Y., M. R. Allen, D. L. T. Anderson, and M. A. Balmaseda, 2000: How Predictability Depends on the Nature of Uncertainty in Initial Conditions in a Coupled Model of ENSO. J. Climate, 13, 3298–3313.

 

Faragò, T, D. A. Wilhite and M. H. Glantz, 1997: A Forecast Is Just a Forecast: It's Not a Guarantee, Internet J. of African Studies, No 2.,  http://www.esig.ucar.edu/ijas/ijasno2/ijasno2.html

 

Fedderson, H., A. Navarra, and M.N. Ward, 1999: Reduction of model systematic error by statistical correction for dynamical seasonal predictions. J. Climate, 12,1974-1989.

Fedderson, H., and U. Andersen, 2005: A method for statistical downscaling of seasonal ensemble predictions. Tellus, 57A, 398-408.

 

Feddersen, H., 2000: Impact of global sea surface temperature on summer and winter temperatures in Europe in a set of seasonal ensemble simulations. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 126, 2089-2109.

 

Fedorov, A.V., S.L. Harper, S.G. Philander, B. Winter, and A. Wittenberg, 2003: How Predictable Is El Niño? Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 84, 911-919.

 

Fennessy, M.J., and J. Shukla, 1999: Impact of initial soil wetness on seasonal prediction. J. Climate: 12, 3167–3180.

 

Fennessy,  M. J., J. Shukla, 2000: Seasonal Prediction over North America with a Regional Model Nested in a Global Model. J. Climate, 13, 2605–2627.

 

Fil, C., and  L. Dubus, 2005: Winter climate regimes over the North Atlantic and European region in ERA40 reanalysis and DEMETER seasonal hindcasts. Tellus, 57A, 290-307.

 

Fischer, M., and M. Latif, and J. Zou, 1994: Assimilation of Sea Level Data into a Primitive Equation Model of the Tropical Pacific. TOGA notes, No. 15, April 1994

 

Fischer, M., and M. Latif, 1995: Assimilation of Temperature and Sea Level Observations into a Primitive Equation Model of the Tropical Pacific. J. Mar. Sys., 6, 31-46.

 

Fischer, M., M. Latif, M. Fluegel, and M. Ji, 1995 : On the Benefit of Sea Level Assimilation in the Tropical Pacific. Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany, Report No. 170. Submitted to Mon. Wea. Rev.

 

Fischer, M., M. Latif, M. Fluegel, and M. Ji, 1997: The impact of data assimilation on ENSO simulations and predictions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 819-829.

 

Fischoff, B.,1994 : What forecasts (seem to) mean. Int. J. Forecasting., 10, 387-403.

 

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PREDICTION SITES

 

Experimental Long Lead Forecast Bulletin

http://www.iges.org/ellfb

 

International Research Institute (IRI) Forecasts

http://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu/climate/forecasts/

  

NOAA/CPC Forecasts

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index_frame.html

 

COLA Forecasts:

http://grads.iges.org/nino/

 

NOAA/GFDL Experimental Forecasts

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~rgg/si_workdir/Forecasts.html

  

NASA INSIPP Forecasts

http://nsipp.gsfc.nasa.gov/exptlpreds/exptl_preds_main.cgi

  

Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/predictions/

 

ECMWF Seasonal Forecasts:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/seasonal/introduction/

 

Lamont ENSO Forecasts:

http://ingrid.ldgo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.ENSOFORECAST/.dataset_documentation.html

 

BMRC NINO3 Forecasts:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/results/CM_Forecasts.htm

 

Forecast Collections:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Seasonal/forecasts.html

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/staff/fzt/CM/page1.html

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

http://wxmaps.org/

 

Hurricane Forecasts:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

 

The Value of Forecasts:

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/biblio/

 

The CLIVAR Working Group on S-to-I Predictions:

http://www.clivar.org/organization/wgsip/index.htm

 

Climate Diagnostic Links

 

1. The Current State of the Tropical Pacific

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/index.html

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/QuickLook.html

 

2. The Current State of the Globe

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/bulletin_old/index.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/global_precip_accum.shtml

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/cid/latest/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/all_index.html

  

3. Predictions of Tropical Pacific

ECMWF: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/plumes/

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast//sst/

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/sst/pac_atl2002.html

 

4. Predictions of US Weather

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/

Streamflow: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/sssf.pl

 

5. Special Areas: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/cid/latest/

Indian Monsoon: http://www.tropmet.res.in/%7Ekolli/MOL/index.html

Drought in Central Asia: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/impact/swasia/index.html

Drought in US: http://www.drought.unl.edu/index.htm

Northwest Water and Snowpack: http://www.ci.seattle.wa.us/light/ctracks.html#rainfall