Associate Research Scientist
International Research Institute
for Climate Prediction
Seasonal Climate Impacts and Monitoring: The Climate Digest is intended to provide context (eg, what are the normal conditions? what are the recent and current conditions and their impacts?) for the IRI seasonal forecasts. It is published monthly and content is evolving as we learn better the needs of the user communities. We are also beginning to collate this information by region (see Regional Impacts) to provide more synthesis of the current conditions and forecasts. A strategy paper outlines the purpose of the Digest. At any time for more detailed analyses of the climate, refer to the
Dynamical Downscaling: While climate anomalies occur on relatively large spatial scales and can be forced by remote conditions such as oceanic temperatures, their impacts are local and can be influenced by topographic, coastline,
and landuse features (and a myriad of social and political forces) that are unresolved by global forecast models. There are many statistical methods for "downscaling" climate information for regional or local needs. Dynamical downscaling employs climate models which incorporate dynamical and physical processes at resolutions which can begin to include regional topographic and landuse variations. We are studying the possible benefits and limitations of these dynamical models in the context of seasonal prediction.
Study of Rainfall Predictability for Tropical South America Using a Nested Modeling System, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Pan American Climate Climate Studies (PACS), 1998-2001. proposal (papers - coming soon!)
South American Monsoon System The climate of tropical South America is dominated by the continental scale, warm season monsoon, and the vertical barrier of the Andes mountains. Improved understanding of the seasonal evolution of the monsoon, regional circulations such as the Andes low level jet and its affect on moisture transport, and relationships between monsoon rainfall and Atlantic and Pacific basins is essential to improved seasonal prediction in this region. CLIVAR's Variability of American MOnsoon Systems (VAMOS) working group has written a summary report on the South American Monsoon System. A paper has also been submitted to BAMS.
Julia Nogues-Paegle(1), Rong Fu(2), E. Hugo Berbery(3), Winston. C. Chao (4), Tsing-Chang Chen(5), Kerry Cook(6)
, David Enfield(7), Rosana Ferreira(4), Vernon Kousky (8), Brant Liebmann(9), K.ingtse Mo (8), J. David Neelin (10),
Jan Paegle (1), Andrew Robertson (10), Anji Seth (11), Jiayu Zhou (12): 2001, Progress in Pan American CLIVAR Research: Understanding the South American Monsoon, submitted to BAMS. abstract
Predictability of Rainfall Onset In many regions which have distinct and substantial dry seasons, the timing of onset of seasonal rains, as well as its character, are crucial for local agriculture and the management of water. Seasonal forecasts, derived from global atmospheric models and monthly mena data, have focussed initially on average conditions over a three month period. We are studying daily model data to examine the ability of the global models to provide useful information about the timing and character of seasonal rains.
Liebmann, B., et al., The relationship between timing of the rainy season and total seasonal rainfall in GCMs and in observations for tropical South America. Proposal submitted to NOAA/PACS, January 2001.
Seth, A. et al., The predictability of onset and character of warm season rains in tropical South America using a nested modeling system. Proposal submitted to NOAA/PACS, January 2001.
Societal vulnerability as a function of climate risk: More on this soon...
Items of interest
Papers and Abstracts
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last modified on 01/29/2001.