SOUTH ASIAN CLIMATE NEWS

to this issue. New contributions are welcome. Please send in yours by March, 2004 to make it to the next issue of this newsletter. Please note the change in email address to slmohn@sltnet.lk .
Lareef Zubair,
Editor.

Meteorology in Maldives

(Compiled by Lareef Zubair based on conversations with Mr. Abdulla Algeen, Deputy Director of Meteorology at Male and Mr. Abdul Muhusin Ramiz, Senior Meteorological Forecaster at Hulule. )

Maldives is a group of atolls in the Indian Oceanwith a north-south elongation roughly along 73^oE spanning the latitude from around 1^o S to 7^o N. There are 1,192 Islands grouped into 26 natural atolls. Around 200 Islands are inhabited and 87 Islands are exclusively tourist resorts. The total area of Maldives is 300 sq km with a coastline of 644 km. The terrain is almost flat with the highest point of 2.4 m above sea level. The population of Maldives is 2,70,000. Tourism accounts for 33.1% of GDP and more than 75% of the Maldives' foreign exchange earnings. Fishing and agriculture account 18% of GDP.

Given the low-lying nature of the terrain, climate, sea-level rise and coral bleaching are of profound interest to the Maldives which are getting due attention.

The meteorological office was established in early 1940's and was under various branches of the government such as the Wireless Offices, Customs, Prime Minister's Office and the Airport Office. A Department of Meteorology was formed in 1980. At present, Mr. Abdul Muhusin, serves as the director and Mr. Abdulla Algeen, the deputy director. The deputy minister of MPHRE, Dr. Abdullahi Majeed, is also the Executive Director of the Met office. The department has five stations in the Maldives, (Khadudhor, 1.88°N, 73.5°E; Kaadedhohoo, about 1°N, 73.5°E; Gan, 0.68°N, 73.53°E, 5-17 local = 0-12 UT), two are 24-hour operations (Hulule, 4.19°N, 73.53°E, and Hanimaadhor, 6.71°N, 73.15°E). There are five other islands which have rainfall observations.

Sea level observations and solar radiation observations are being maintained by the Department of Meteorology based on collaborative projects.

The head office of the Department which houses the administrative and the climate branches is located in Male. The National Meteorological Centre and the link for communication with the Global Tele-communication System and satellites are at the Hulule Island. The National weather forecasts are issued here. Recently a website has been established at http://www.meteorology.gov.mv/. Users can also obtain weather forecasts by calling or by text-message.

2. Editorial -Five years in existence!

This network and newsletter was started in late 1998 by Lareef Zubair.

As I pointed out in the first issue in January 1999: "At the SLAAS meeting that was held in December 1998, I had the opportunity to discuss the needs of researchers into climate and oceanography in Sri Lanka with some members who attended. Mr. K.R. Abayasinghe of the Department of Meteorology, Dr. W.L. Sumathipala of the Open University, Dr. Chandana Jayaratne of the University of Colombo and Dr. Kanthi Yapa of University of Ruhuna agreed that it would be worthwhile to maintain some sort of network. The reasons are that there is no forum in Sri Lanka that brings those with such interests together. We are often not aware of the work of one another; meetings related to climate take place without our knowledge and in many cases we do not know each other. Perhaps we shall be able to seek help from one another or even organize an annual meeting. Perhaps such a network can contribute to the development of the field. I am not sure as to what sort of network would be appropriate and sustainable. Perhaps all this can become clear once we set up a channel of communication among ourselves."

Five years have gone and the modest goal that we set of bringing out quarterly issues has been largely accomplished. The mailing goes out to over 1000 subscribers by post and email. We have been able to bring to a wider audience a number of activities affecting Sri Lanka such as the INDOEX program, IPCC, meetings in Colombo, the visit of the Director-General of the Indian Meteorological Department, the land takeover of the Department of Meteorology, various opportunities for meetings, grants and collaboration. In time, this is a task that should be undertaken by a learned society. In addition, the coverage has been expanded to encompass the South Asian Region and the work of several institutions in the South Asian Region hase been highlighted.

Our thanks are due to the subscribers, the contributors so far - Dr. P.A.J. Ratnasiri, Dr. Kanthi Yapa, Dr. W.L. Sumathipala, Dr. Nimal Gamage, Prof. C.M. Maduma Bandara, Mr. K. R. Abeysinghe, Prof. Manfred Domroes, Prof. T.D.M.A. Samuel, Prof. Oliver Illeperuma, Mr. Lalith Chandrapala, Prof. M. Sivapalan, Dr. S.V. Singh and Dr. Chandana Jayaratne.

My particular thanks are also to those who helped with the laborious task of formatting, copying and mailing initially namely Alexsandra Somasundera, Ajith Gunaratne, S. Ramanayake, Suganda Somasundera and Jayampathy Ratnayake. Lately, we have the assistance of Zeenas Yahiya supported by M.R.A. Siraj, Heli Bulathsinhala, C. Wickremasinghe, Kusalika Ariyaratne, Upamala Tennakoon, D. Jayasundera, Irugal Bandara and Janaki Chandimala.

The field of climate is rather important for the people of Sri Lanka and it is incumbent on those who are knowledgeable to promote it. This newsletter is a modest attempt to do so as a network. We hope that this is a stimulus for the development of the field in Sri Lanka and South Asia.

3. El Nino has dissipated: IRI, 15 January 2004

The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) issues monthly summaries about the current state of ENSO, and the consensus of models that forecast ENSO developments for the coming 6 or more months.

Overall conditions in the tropical Pacific are mostly above average, although not strong enough to qualify as El Nino conditions. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, while chances of El Nino are slightly above their average, it is most likely that near-neutral conditions will continue through the first half of 2004.

4. Climate Update for Asia

While near normal conditions persisted from October to December in the Eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, anomalous warm pools persisted in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean, in the oceans around Japan and in the Central tropical Indian Ocean. All of this contributed to both deficit and above normal large-scale anomalies of precipitation across South and South-East Asia.

There was anomalously heavy precipitation across South-East China, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippinesand in the Eastern Indian states of Bihar and West Bengal. Floods and Landslides are being reported from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Southern Kazakhstan. Rainfall deficits were observed over Maldives, Sri Lanka, Northern Laos, Thailand, parts of Southern China and North-Western Iran.

In the last week of December deaths from a cold wave were reported across the region at the northern littoral of the Bay of Bengal. However, near normal temperatures were reported at a monthly scale.

Seasonal climate predictions issued in January, point to a tendency towards a warmer climate in most of South-East and South Asia from February to July. A tendency towards cold anomalies is predicted for Mongolia from February to April. A tendency towards above-normal precipitation is predicted over Uzbekistan, Western Afghanistan and over Taiwan. A tendency towards precipitation deficits is predicted over South and South-East Asian regions of Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Laos, Cambodia, Burma, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Indian states of West Bengal, North-East States, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The impacts of precipitation deficits in Sri Lankaduring the last season are likely to be compounded during the upcoming season.

5. Climate Update for Sri Lanka

For Sri Lanka region from January to April the IRI assessments of precipitation show a tendency towards dry conditions from normal and assessments for temperature show a tendency towards warmer conditions than normal. IRI predictions are based on six Global Climate Models developed in various meteorological centers in the world. The projections from these individual GCM's are combined after weighting for the historical accuracy of each model for each season and each region. Note that for Sri Lanka the projections for rainfall are more reliable for the next three months (February to April) rather than the three months thereafter.

The predictions of tendency towards warmer-than-normal and drier-than-normal tendency are alarming, considering the drought conditions prevailing in Sri Lanka.

6. Update on Met. Department Land Take Over

The action of this network over the take over of the land still goes on. The campaign has managed to publicize the disregard of environmental data in Sri Lanka and has brought strong statements by NASTEC, SLAAS, EFL and several climate scientists with significant coverage in the press. In addition, the Ombudsman has investigated the matter and inquiries have been requested by both the President's Office and Prime Minister's Office. This campaign should prevent the further acquisition of the remaining part of the Observatory and has sensitized all concerned regarding the pivotal nature of environmental data. An article on the land take over was published by TIEMPO from the University of East Anglia in September 2003 -, which is a newsmagazine that is widely distributed in the Climate Change Community. A follow up article on the campaign was published in the Island and the Daily Mirror in Sri Lanka.

7. Weather, Climate Variability, and Climate Change

Lareef Zubair

The air around the earth is a thin envelope, which we call the atmosphere. The density of this envelope of air drops from about 1 kilogram per square kilometer at the earth's surface to about a tenth of that at an altitude of 20 kilometers. Above altitudes of 20 km, it continues to diminish rapidly with distance from the earth.

The sun influences the atmosphere by radiative heat. Because of the way the earth rotates on its axis and the way it rotates around the sun, there are seasonal and diurnal (night and day) variations in the atmosphere. Diurnality and seasonality are important characteristics of the atmosphere.

Defintions

·Weather is the current or ongoing state of the atmosphere and is generally predictable up to 10 days in advance.

·Climate is the long-term average of the weather over many years.

·Climate change is the long-term change in the average state of the climate. It can be predicted, but such predictions are speculative.

· Seasonal climate variability comprises the departures from the average state of the climate due to shifts in ocean or land conditions. It may be predictable up to one year in advance.

Climate change: The scientific consensus is that the climate is changing, both on a global and on a regional scale. Ecological systems have adapted to environmental niches and can be upset. The causes of climate change include disturbance in energy balances due to anthropogenic (caused by humans) pollution such as burning fossil fuel.

Uncertainty and risk are inevitable in dealing with climate change. Human-induced climate change is also accompanied by equity and moral issues: who is causing climate change and who pays for the consequences?

Mitigating of and Adaptation to Climate Change

·Improve understanding of climate and its relationship to our societies and environment

· Improve understanding of climate change, its current and potential effects and the vulnerability of communities to its impact

· Develop strategies to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change.

Following the precautionary principle, formulation of adaptation and mitigation strategies need not wait for perfect scientific evidence of climate change. In 1998, the Science and Environmental Health Network defined the precautionary principle as follows: "When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are not fully established scientifically. In this context the proponent of an activity, rather than the public, should bear the burden of proof."

·Build capacity and develop resiliency on a regional basis

· Adopt no-regrets policies as a first step. These are policies that will generate net social benefits whether or not there is climate change.

Coping with climate variability: The ability to predict climate variations on a seasonal or inter-annual scale presents communities with the opportunity to develop their adaptive capacity. Decision-making is often driven by short-term concerns, and it is thus more feasible to focus on climate variability than on long-term climate change. Developing the capacity and expertise to deal with climate variability also helps prepare communities to deal with the long-run effects of climate change.

Indeed, it is now increasingly becoming accepted that understanding and adapting to short-term climate variability provides a testable means of developing adaptation methods that can be finessed for climate change. Similarly, impact studies for shorter-term variability provides a test bedfor assessing impacts to longer-term changes. In addition, the order of magnitude of season to annual climate variability is several times larger than climate change signals even in Sri Lanka so even to deal with the latter; one needs a handle on the former.

If the suite of tools, training modules, and data setsto deal with climate variability are developed they can be applied to climate change issues after due development. For example, the methodology that is in use for downscaling from Global Climate Model outputs to stations or to a fine grid is similar whether it is for shorter or longer term. There is similarity in linking analysis of agricultural systems to climate. Thus the work of interpreting impacts of climate variability remains relevant although not exclusive to the longer-term issues of climate change.

Pertinently, the demands from decision-makers are usually for information about climate variability in the next few years. For example, the need in the plantation sector in Sri Lanka is not exclusively for information about climate change but also about climate variability. This point has been made forcefully by officials of the Ministry of Plantations who said that there are immediate drought-related problems that need to be addressed from year to year for management and policy making as a priority. At a workshop on early warning systems for malaria epidemics at Passara, Uva Province, the assembled Regional Malaria Officers insisted that it was important to take care of the season to season and year to year variation.

Summing up: While maintaining pressure to develop mitigation strategies, communities need to prepare to adapt to the effects of climate variability and climate change that cannot be avoided or mitigated. To achieve this goal, policymakers and the general public need to develop a good understanding of climate and the effects of climate change. Immediate projects to cope with climate variability are a rigourous preparation for development of adaptation to climate change.

Information on climate change and climate variability is needed at the local and regional level, and this information must include a comprehensive perspective from multiple sectors, such as health and agriculture. Understanding the vulnerability of the environment and of human society is as critical as understanding climate. Data on projects where climate information was used to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies would provide a particularly important component of the information base.

In improving the collection, analysis, and use of appropriate information, it will be important to support the entry and work of young people particularly in the tropics.

8. 'Phenomenal' temperature rises threaten India

Reproduced from - T V Padma8 January 2004 Source: SciDev.Net

[CHANDIGARH] India is likely to become "phenomenally" hotter and could also become considerably wetter due to global warming, according to initial projections by climate researchers.

Scientists at the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) used two models to forecast the impact of global warming. Both models predict that the country's temperatures will rise significantly until the end of the century. But the two models differ on the effect on monsoon rains.

One global climate model predicts that temperatures in India are likely to rise by 2 to 3 °C by the end of the century if greenhouse gas concentrations increase by 1 per cent each year.

Rupa Kumar Kolli, head of IITM's climatology and hydrometeorology division, who presented the findings at the Indian Science Congress in Chandigarh this week, says the increase could have serious consequences for crop growth and weather patterns, given that India's temperature has risen by only 0.4 to 0.6 °C over the past century.

The other model - a high-resolution regional climate model developed under joint Indo-UK collaboration - also projects a general warming over India. The IITM team has yet to run the regional model up to the end of the century, but an analysis up to 2050 indicates a temperature rise of between 1 and 2 °C, in line with estimates of the global model.

The two models, however, come up with different conclusions about the impact of global warming on India's monsoon rainfall - the most crucial weather element that is the lifeline to the country's agriculture and central to the livelihoods of 70 per cent of the country's population.

The global model predicts a 10 per cent increase in monsoon rainfall over the next century. In contrast the regional model predicts that rainfall will remain at current levels up to 2050.

Both models indicate a weakening of the link between El Niño, the warming of eastern Pacific waters that affects global weather patterns, and the monsoon. Kolli says the weaker link has already been evident in India over the past two decades. "This is now being considered an early signal of possible global warming effect on monsoon variability," he says.

9. 10th Asian Congress of Fluid Mechanics inS ri Lanka (May 2004)

Venue: University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka. Dates: 17-21 May 2004

Email: acfmx@pdn.ac.lk

Website: http://acfmx.pdn.ac.lk/

The Asian Fluid Mechanics Committee (AFMC) was founded in 1980 to advance research in Fluid Mechanics in Asia through interaction and exchange of information between workers in the field of Fluid Mechanics. It has been adopted as a member of the International Union of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics (IUTAM) soon after its founding and grown in scope and range of research activity during the past 22 years. The inaugural Asian Congress of Fluid Mechanics was held in Bangalore in 1980 and subsequent Congresses were in Beijing, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Taejon, Singapore, Chennai, Shenzhen and Isfahan. Since inception, the Congress has firmly established itself as a leading event in the international calendar of fluid mechanics.

Deadlines: 1 Oct. 2003 Submission of paper1 Jan. 2004 Notification of acceptance1 Mar 2004 Advance registration & reservation of accommodation

10. Second International Conference on Climate Impacts Assessment (SICCIA)

June 28-July 2, 2004

Grainau, Germany

http://jisao.washington.edu/PNWimpacts/Workshops/SICCIA/ Using seasonal forecasts to make better decisions. Assessing vulnerability to climate change. Stakeholder-driven research. These are a few of the themes of the SICCIA, which will provide an opportunity to compare approaches to impacts assessment, to advance the state of knowledge of regional assessments, and to support efforts by developing countries to use seasonal forecasts and assess impacts of climate variability and change.

The venue: Eibsee Hotel (www.eibsee-hotel.de) is 100 km from Munich airport by train, and is a 4-star hotel with many amenities. Conference price is reasonable.

Depending on funds, some scholarships will be available to qualified participants from developing countries.

Abstract deadline: March 31,2004. Scholarship deadline: March 31, 2004.