SOUTH ASIAN CLIMATE NEWS

Contributions are welcome. Please send in yours by September 2004 to make it to the next issue of this newsletter. Lareef Zubair, Editor, slmohn@sltnet.lk

Figure 1.1:
The cumulative monthly anomaly of rainfall from its average for January-August 2004 is provided. The large scale pattern of deficits towards Indonesia and excess towards East Africa is reminiscent of anomalies during El Nino events. Rainfall in peninsular India, Sri Lanka and India Ocean region is typical for El Nino events.

Two Acres of Colombo Observatory was sold for 1.8 million sterling pounds

The Auditor-General has raised questions about the legitimacy of the land take over of the Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology. In 1987, 2.5 acres of the Colombo Meteorological Observatory was given to the Chinese Embassy and in 2001, 2 acres of land has been provided to the British High Commission for a 1.8 million sterling pounds (Rs. 213,912,000).

The Auditor General queries as to this land was handed over as very clearly meteorological observations are likely to be compromised as per international guidelines such as from WMO. They have also queried (a) the lack of cabinet approval for the sale, (b) whether the funds were actually received by the proper authority, (c) technical certification that meteorological data was not compromised and (d) the lack of documentation regarding any buildings that is planned by the British on this land as it can interfere with the data acquisition.

The Auditor General's Department has faulted this sale for being carried out because of (a) the report of the Director of Meteorology dated 12.12.2000 and on 01.03.2003 that stated that meteorological observations need this expanse of land (c) the letter on 08.08.2000 from the Secretary of the Ministry of Sience and Technology against the sale of this land (d) the opposition of the Meteorological Officers Association and (e) the opposition from a cross section of scientists in Sri Lanka and overseas.

Weak El Nino is probable: IRI, September 2004

The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) issues monthly summaries about the current state of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the consensus of models that forecast ENSO developments for the coming 6 months.

Overall conditions in the tropical Pacific are currently indicative of a weak El Nio. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, it is 50% likely that weak El Nio conditions will prevail through October 2004, slowly decreasing to 40 to 45% likelihood for northern winter 2004-05 and into early 2005.

General Discussion

Weak El Nio conditions developed in the east-central tropical Pacific in late July.with sea surface temperatures of 1 degree C above average along the equator from 170E to 120W. Below average sea surface temperatures continue in the far eastern tropical Pacific. Although ocean conditions indicate El Nio, tropical Pacific atmospheric conditions are not yet those characteristic of El Nio. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, about half predict sea surface temperatures at weak El Nio levels for the remainder of 2004 and into early 2005.Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the chances for El Nio conditions are approximately equal to 50% from August through November 2004, decreasing slowly to 40-45% by the end of the calendar year and into early 2005. The likelihood of neutral conditions is near to slightly above the climatological likelihood (i.e. equal to or greater than 50% probability) through 2004 and early 2005. The probability of development of La Nia conditions is believed to be much less than that of an average year (i.e. less than 25%).

Indian Ocean

IRI Climate Information Digest for August, shows that the cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures seen in June off the coast of Africa from Madagascar to the Arabian Sea warmed in July, while conditions cooled with respect to normal in the central and eastern tropical Indian Ocean.

Climate Update for South Asia

The Indian Summer monsoon is on track to being near or only slightly below normal notwithstanding the El Nino conditions. There has been a prolonged drought in Sri Lanka. The rainfall deficits that started last year has built up a stress for water. Last Maha (October to December) was significantly deficient. Since, there has been reduced rainfall. This is typical for an El Nino episode. Notwithstanding that there has not been an El Nino, there has been El Nino type ocean conditions in the Pacific and warm Indian Ocean surface conditions.

The forecast for the upcoming October-December period shows a wet tendency in Sri Lanka, Maldives, Somalia and Sumatra and and a dry tendency towards Somalia, Mauritius and Indonesia (apart from Sumatra), Laos, Cambodia, Philippines and Somalia. This is in a gross sense is what occurs usually in an El Nino. Note, that these are forecasts of probability shifts in climate rather categorical predictions. Thus for example, for Sri Lanka, the prediction is 40% chance of above normal, 35% chance of normal and 25% chance of below normal.

A tendency towards a warmer October to December 2004 is predicted for India, Indonsia, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Somalia. As with the precipitation forecast, this is a tendency of distributions only not a categorical forecast.

Severe drought leaves 450,000 families destitute

Alladin Hussein in Colombo,
August 13, 2004 from Lanka Academic.

President Chandrika Kumaratunga has summoned the Disaster Management Council to discuss the severe drought situation which has affected several parts of the island.

The drought has left 450,000 families destitute with Anuradhapura and Kurunegala districts being the worst hit. Other areas hit by the drought are Jaffna, Killinochi, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Mannar, Ampara, Puttalam, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota.

At the meeting it was decided to allocate funds to provide drought relief measures to affected areas. It was also decided to pay attention to the provision of drinking water projects to develop tanks and irrigation schemes. The Army Navy, Air force and Police personnel have been drawn into service to distribute drinking water, the National Water supply and Drainage Board has been requested to waive customary fees charged for the use of its water bowzers. The President directed Disaster Management Council to launch a programme to refurbish tube wells in the affected areas.

Drought in Sri Lanka : Climate Issues

There has been a prolonged drought in Sri Lanka. The rainfall deficits that started last year have built up a stress for water. Last Maha (October to December) was significantly deficient. Since, there has been reduced rainfall over Sri Lanka. The Maha rains in the coming season starting in late September is awaited anxiously. This drought is typical during El Nino phase. Although there has been no El Nino, there has been weak El Nino like conditions in the Pacific Ocean and in the Indian ocean leading to large scale precipitation anomalies across the Indian Ocean. Sri Lanka is situated within this deficit region during this period. This is likely to change in the coming months.

Publication: Lightning Hazards (in Sinhala) by K. R. Abhayasingha, Deputy Director, Department of Meteorology.

This book has answers to 40 questions (given in the annex) we frequently ask about lightning, its hazards and precautions against lightning hazards have been published. The book also contains a glossary and a list of references.

Examples of questions:
9. How does the most hazardous lightning reach?
10. How do you recognize the outbreak or approach of thunderstorms?
11. What are lightning hazards and the precautions to minimize lightning hazards?
13. What are the possible hazards to buildings by lightning and precautions to reduce them?
18. How does a lightning rod provide a safe space for human beings?
19. Do trees provide the safe space for human beings?
22 What first aid should be given to a person struck by lightning?
23 Can we touch a man struck by lightning?
24. Is it possible for lightning to strike a single place several times?
29 What are the common lightning hazards in Sri Lanka?
30 What are the seasons of lightning in Sri Lanka?
31 What are the times of the day with maximum lightning?
32 Are there any areas with significant lightning incidents?
39. What are the reading materials on precautionary steps and technology for reducing lightning hazards?

Purchase the book from your book dealer. To receive copies by registered post or by hand, direct requests to the above address or contact me. Copies can also be purchased at the Meteorological Department Head office, Baudhhaloka Mawatha, Colombo 7. Cheques for the relevant value should be issued in favor of K. R. Abhayasingha.

Price of a copy Rs. 175/=
Bulk Discount
Number of copies Discount (per cent) 1 - 5 10 6 - 10 20 11 - 20 30 More than 20 40 K. R. Abhayasingha
Email: krabey@yahoo.com
Phone: 011-2682041, 0777-287587, 0602-800083

Climate Impacts (Courtesy of IRI climate digest)

Bangladesh,India,Nepal,Pakistan:

The death toll due to monsoon-related rainfall, flooding, and landslides in Pakistan, Nepal, India, and Bangladesh has reached 1,972. Recent reports indicate that nearly 1000 and 700 people have been killed in India and Bangladesh, respectively. Approximately 10% of the deaths in Bangladesh were due to water-borne diseases.

n Bangladesh, officials have estimated that flood damage could total $6.7 billion. The flooding, which submerged nearly half of the capital city, Dhaka, greatly disrupted the $4 billion textile industry, which accounts for nearly 80% of the country's export earnings. Authorities have warned that millions in the region are at high risk of contracting diseases such as dysentery, diarrhea, typhoid, and scabies and that nearly 100,000 people are already ill with these diseases. Approximately 2 million acres of crops have been damaged or destroyed as well. According to the Food and Disaster Management Minister, Bangladesh will need food aid for 20 million people (i.e., 14% of its population) over the next five months. The flooding is expected to last through August and has already been labeled as the worst event since 1998.

Northeastern India, particularly the provinces of Assam and Bihar, has been hit particularly hard by the flooding as well. Over 21 million people have been affected by the flooding in Bihar alone. Much of the area's rice crop was destroyed or damaged by flooding in April. The recent flooding in July destroyed household food stocks and affected household income sources such as livestock rearing and agricultural day labor. At least 500,000 hectares of farmland were submerged during July in Assam and 1.3 million hectares of crops were damaged in Bihar. Nearly 2000 head of livestock were lost in Bihar as well. Sixty percent of India's workforce is dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods and according to the United Nations Resident Coordinator; those living in the flood-affected rural areas will need "substantial assistance just to get back to where they were before the flood". (Financial Express, CNN/AP, AFP)

India Agriculture: Although areas of western India received heavy rains in the early days of August, most of the region remained quite dry throughout the month of July (precipitation percentile map), in contrast to the heavy monsoon rainfall further east. Areas including the states of Haryana, Punjab, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan (DPA) received below-normal precipitation through July. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), from the beginning of June through early August, accumulated precipitation was 50 percent below normal in West Uttar Pradesh, 44 percent below normal in Himachal Pradesh, and 35 percent below normal in Punjab and West Rajasthan. Because of the poor rainfall performance beginning in mid-June, the planting of cereals, pulses, and oilseeds in Andhra Pradesh, and various crops in Rajasthan and areas of Karnataka and Maharashtra was delayed (rediff.com). The central government has announced that it is taking steps to increase grain reserves and provide drinking water to drought-affected areas (BBC).

Sri Lanka: Most of Sri Lanka has been experiencing drought since the end of 2003. Areas of the North Western and North Central provinces have been affected the most, according to FAO. Water levels in reservoirs and water tanks in these two provinces were reportedly only 21 and 34 percent of capacity, respectively, in late February, toward the end of the Maha season. Production of rain fed crops during the Maha season, which accounts for about 60 percent of annual production, was well below normal in the north and west. Rainfall thus far during the April to September Yala season has been below normal (April-July 2004 precipitation anomaly) in many areas as well, and it is likely that Yala crop production will also be adversely affected. The armed forces and police have been helping to distribute drinking water, and the Disaster Management Council has met to decide how to distribute drought relief funds.

December 28-31, 2004, Post-Graduate Institute of Science, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka.

The primary purpose of the conference is to bring together statisticians from developed and developing countries to present their latest research findings in statistics and to interact and exchange ideas. It is hoped that such a forum will initiate fruitful interaction among all participants and stimulate research. It is expected that this venture will ultimately modernize the educational curricula for Sri Lankan students and will generate new opportunities for researchers. That is the futuristic view the theme for this conference. Further Information at - http://www.pgis.lk

International Conference on Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Changing Environment of the Asian Monsoon Region.

Organized by the United Nations University,
November 17-19, 2004.
Bandaranaike Memorial International Conference Hall, Colombo, Sri Lanka

The objective of this conference is to bring together practitioners and researchers in the water cycle in the Asian monsoon region and to pay particular attention to climatic change such as through the Asian brown cloud and in the use of information technologies. Deadlines for submissions over but participants may register.

Email: WRMinCE@hq.unu.edu
Web: http://www.hq.unu.edu/conf/wrm/

4th International Mechanical Engineering Conference

Venue: Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka.
Dates: 29-31 December 2004
Email: ieb@bangala.net, sadrul@me.buet.ac.bd

Abstracts of no more than 500 words are invited on all topics of mechanical engineering please contact organizers for more details.

More Infromation:
Engr. Shaikh Al Amin
Secretary, Mechanical Engineering Division, Institution of Engineers,
Ramna, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh.
Email: ieb@bangala.net
Fax: 880 29562447
Deadlines: 15 Oct. 2004 Submission of abstract
1 Nov. 2004 Notification of acceptance
1 Dec 2004 Submission of full papers.

WATER PROFESSIONALS DAY SYMPOSIUM 2004 on Water Resources Research in Sri Lanka

The Water Professionals Day will be held at the Auditorium of the Postgraduate Institute of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya on October 01, 2004.

Research papers must contain original findings of the authors. The deadline to receive papers will be September 10, 2004. The authors are requested to send hard and soft copies of the papers in MS Word format. Papers should include an abstract of 300 words, introduction, methodology with materials used (if relevant), findings, discussion, conclusions & recommendations and references. If figures or graphs are included, they should be clear and printed in black & white and the number of figures/ graphs not exceeding four. The total number of pages should not exceed 15 pages. Papers will be selected for presentations after reviewing by an eminent panel of scientists. Papers that are selected for presentation at the symposium will be published in the proceedings which will be released on the day of the symposium.

The full paper and the information form given in this leaflet should be sent to:

Dr. Ranjith Premalal De Silva
Department of Agricultural Engineering
Faculty of Agriculture
University of Peradeniya
Peradeniya
Tel. (Office) : 081-2388923
(Mobile) : 0777-801712
Fax. (Office) : 081-2380125
E-mail : rpdesilva@pdn.ac.lk

Annual Congress of the Sri Lanka Association for the Advancement of Science

60th Annual Session of the Sri Lanka Association for the Advancement of Science will be held from 06th to 10th December 2004, at the SLAAS

Head Office in Colombo - 7.
Deadline for submission of abstracts: June 15, 2004.
Further Information
Telephone +94-11-2691681
Email: slaas@itmin.com
http://www.nsf.ac.lk/slaas/

Asia Oceania Geosciences 2nd Annual Meeting: 5-9 July 2005, Singapore

Scientific Sessions in Solid Earth, Oceans and Atmospheres, Hydrological Science, Solar Terrestrial, Planetary Sciences and Inter Disciplinary. Further Information: Ms Cheng-Hoon Khoo, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, Singapore, Email: kch@meetmatt.net