The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) issues monthly summaries about the current state of ENSO, and the consensus of models that forecast ENSO developments for the coming 6 or more months. 

ENSO conditions are currently near-neutral. Ocean temperatures in the far eastern equatorial Pacific are below average, while temperatures in the east-central and central Pacific are neutral to above average. The latest observations and forecasts no longer indicate a significant preference for development of La Niña conditions over the next few months. A continuation of neutral conditions appears most likely through the remainder of 2003.

The momentum in the eastern Pacific to a La Niña has stalled and indeed even regressed to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation characteristics. However, there still remain La Niña type warm anomalies especially in the equatorial western Pacific Ocean. The Arabian Sea particularly towards the equator remains unseasonably warmer along with the Red Seas and the Mediterranean seas. These sea surface patterns were influential in the pattern of increased rainfall in the Central Asian regions, in the Western Indian Ocean and in South-Eastern China and rainfall deficits in the Indian subcontinent and the Indonesian archipelago. The preponderantly warm seas also contributed to the occasional heat waves in the Indian subcontinent that caused several deaths.

The flooding in South-East China affected 100 million people and led to 589 deaths and economic losses estimated at $5 billion. In the Central Asian region of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the increased snow melt and enhanced rainfall led to flooding, landslides and damage to fruit cultivation. Drought prevailed in Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Indian states including Rajasthan and Karnataka leading to crop and livestock losses and outbreaks of disease such as Monkey fever.

In Sri Lanka the overall tendency was towards drier than normal conditions, however, a severe but localized flood led to a death toll of 260 and affected 250,000 persons. The flood was caused by orographic rainfall due to intense winds caused by a cyclone that tracked its way 700 km to the east in the Bay of Bengal. This episode of a flood amidst a drought seems paradoxical at first. It illustrates the nuances in spatial and temporal scale in the relationship of weather events to seasonal climatic anomalies that can befuddle users of climate information.

The predictions for the remainder of summer monsoon in the Indian subcontinent are for a slightly wetter tendency. Following the record deficit rainfall last summer in India, this shall be welcome. On the other hand, Indonesia shows strong dry tendency for Sumatra and a wet tendency for the islands in the West of the archipelago particularly in Borneo, Irian Jaya and Papua New Guinea. The predictions for the upcoming season generally show a warm tendency except for slight cooling in the Indonesian islands. One must take some caution with these predictions since the Indian Ocean sea surface predictions (that are used as boundary conditions for global climate models) are not as skillful as that for the Pacific Ocean.

Notwithstanding the heavy flooding in the South-West corner of Sri Lanka (including parts of Sabragamuwa and the Southern Province), the overall tendency during the last season has been to drier than normal conditions. The predictions from IRI for the coming season (October to December, 2003) point to a slightly wetter tendency.

The IRI assessments of precipitation from October to December for Sri Lankan region shows a tendency towards slightly wetter conditions from normal in the period from October to December. These predictions are based on poorly estimated Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. It is reported by Frontier Research Centre for Global Change that the Indian Ocean Dipole mode is under development. If this dipole mode persists through the end of the year, then this is known to cause a wetter tendency for the Sri Lankan region. The IRI temperature predictions show a slight tendency to cooler conditions from October to December. Attention is thus warranted on the developing conditions in the next months before the next Maha (Rabi in India) season.