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--______________________________________________________________ ActivitiesThe details of the activities to be undertaken are given below. a) Collect past rainfall and temperature data for agro-climatic regions covering coconut and tea growing areas from the Meteorology Department in Sri Lanka and establish suitable data bases for easy analysis. b) Collect, relating to the two sub-sectors (coconut and tea), past information such as annual production in different agro-ecological zones, people employed and their earnings, revenue from export and local sales, changes in land use under the two crops and their causes such as degradation of soil quality and abandonment due to pressure for other activities, such as housing and industries. Most of these are documented in various organizations, and where there are gaps, sample field surveys will be undertaken.
d) Correlate the crop production with variations in temperature and rainfall for each agro-climate region, and establish empirical formulae. g) Determine the cropping calendar for coconut based on rain spells in each rainy period on location basis for the above temperature and precipitation scenarios. h) Project changes in the productivity of coconut and tea under the future climate scenarios for each agro-climatic region, as well as under no climate change. i) Estimate the resulting impact on social factors such as loss of employment to the work-force and national economy. j) Establish a network with scientists in other countries in the South Asia Region where coconut and tea are grown for dissemination and sharing of findings and information. k) Prepare a set of recommendations for policy makers on appropriate adaptive measures such as introduction of irrigation, fertilizer changes, introducing new crop cultivation calendars, and development of drought resistant varieties. l) Conduct awareness programmes for planters and other stakeholders on the above recommendations. Several types of models are available to study assessment of impacts of adaptation to climate change. General Circulation Models are used for determining climate scenarios for different regions; crop models to understand the effects of such changes in climate on crop productivity, hydrology models to understand the impacts of water resources on plant growth, and economic models at farm or regional level that deal with effect of agricultural production on various issues such as profits, employment, and trade in general (Aggarwal and Karla, 1999). The following crop-weather models have been used by scientists at the Tea Research Institute, Sri Lanka to study the effect of weather on tea production. • Cuppa Tea Model In addition, new models as recommended by Consultants to be contracted under the project will be used in carrying out the assessment studies. Arrangements have already been made to obtain the services of the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) at Ahmadabad, India where expertise is available in the application of Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) in various sectors. Provision has been made in the project budget to purchase a suitable IAM as recommended by the IIM. A programme has been drawn up by the IIM to train the Sri Lankan scientists engaged in the project on assessment modeling, particularly on the application of IAMs under a separate contract. Provision has also been made to include several scientists from India as well in the training workshop. [ To top ] Main Tasks Year 1 a) Collect and analyze climatic data Year II
n) Assess impacts on production and socio-economic factors. [ To top ]
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