1. Climate Data Analysis
The following tasks are expected
to be carried out:
·
Complete the trend analyses
for all of the stations and for all parameters on monthly, seasonally, decadal
basis.
·
Obtain further training on
SDSM and MAGIC/SCENGEN softwares, which are to be used in scenario development.
·
Commence scenario development
by
o
Using baseline data collected
and analyzed
o
Downloading of NCEP
reanalysis data and GCM outputs
o
Downscaling GCM output to the
Station level or to fine grid
· Perform quality control analysis on variables such as minimum and maximum temperature, humidity, rainfall data.
· Undertake estimation of regional climate change, its seasonal, decadal and possible diurnal variability.
· Arrange for the overseas training of one climate scientist in climate scenario development.
2
Coconut
Sector Data Analysis
The following tasks are expected
to be carried out:
· Completion of collection of data on yield, climate and socio-economic factors.
· Analysis of long-term climate data applicable to coconut growing areas.
· Development of climate change scenarios for coconut growing areas jointly with climate scientists.
· Development and application of crop models to determine the relationship between yield and climate factors.
· Identification of socio-economic impact indicators sensitive to climate change.
· Arrange for the overseas training of one coconut scientist in crop modeling.
The following tasks are expected
to be carried out:
· Continue the collection of historical data on productivity from selected tea estates in different agro-climatic zones
· Continue the literature survey on relationship between climate and tea productivity and crop models.
· Continue the CO2 enrichment experiments and obtain other bio-physical parameters such as chlorophyll content, leaf area and photosynthesis rate, to feed the data into crop models.
· Analysis of data collected from low high and mid-country estates and obtain regression equations for yield and climate parameters.
· Analysis of data and establishment of relationships between environmental factors and productivity of tea using data collected from field experiments.
· Run the two crop models, ECOSYS and CROPSYS to forecast productivity changes due to changes in climate parameters under different agro-ecological zones.
· Arrange for the overseas training of one tea scientist in crop modeling.
· Collect following information from 50 tea estates in all 3 elevations (including the low country sample) minimum of 4 estates from each Agro-Ecological Regions (AER), to cover 12 tea growing AERs.
· Undertake a stakeholder survey to identify social vulnerability and adaptive capacities of different stakeholder groups. Questionnaires have been prepared and yet to be pre-tested.
The main difficulty anticipated is in identifying sources of Integrated Assessment Models applicable to agricultural sector, which is an important component of the study. We are still awaiting a positive response from those who may have this information.
We also plan to send three scientists to India to familiarize themselves in climate scenario development (one) and in crop model development (two). In view of the need to obtain the clearance from Indian higher authorities for such activities, we could foresee some difficulties. It is pertinent to mention that the requested host government endorsement for the proposed training programme planned earlier to be conducted at the Indian Institute of Management at Ahmadabad never came.