Technical ApproachMethodology The general approach for assessing impacts of and adaptation to climate change is to use simulation techniques as described in IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations (Carter et.al., 1994) and in Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Synthesis of Results from the US Country Studies Program (Smith et.al., 1996). The assessment begins with the selection of baseline production data and socio-economic data and their projections for the future that will take place without any climate change. Climate change scenarios will next be developed which will form inputs for the bio-physical and socio-economic models that incorporate climate change. The output of these models will provide an assessment of the impacts of possible climate change. Initially, each activity is analyzed in isolation and the results are then integrated across sectors to determine the overall impacts. The adaptation assessment will be used to evaluate the options that have been identified to mitigate the adverse impacts as projected in the previous steps. The proposed study comprises three stages. The first stage will cover collection of baseline data of climatic parameters and production data on coconut and tea, their analysis and constructing future scenarios for temperature and precipitation changes, and future variations in productivity, unemployment and national revenue. The second stage will cover assessment of impacts, identification and assessment of adaptation measures using crop growth models. These models need initial calibration to suit local conditions and validated for current climate conditions. Thereafter these have to be tested with the climate change scenarios developed. In the third stage, the impacts on the markets and trade due to changes in the productivity and the resulting effects on the planters, the labour force and the economy in general will be assessed. Finally, adaptation strategies will be evaluated that will mitigate the adverse impacts and those which are most cost effective will be popularized among planters. The project will also include training of scientists for undertaking adaptive measures and further research on assessments. Methodology of analyzing data and dissemination of results The hundred years meteorological data such as rainfall, temperature and sunshine etc, will be related to productivity data of tea and coconut using multivariate analysis and their relationships will be established. Based on the results of the above relationships, impact of climate change on productivity will be projected. Sample surveys will be done to bridge any gaps in knowledge with regard to socio economics data Based on the projected productivity effects of climate change on socio economic status of people such as loss of employment and income etc, will be investigated. Impact of change of productivity on national economy will be evaluated. The climate change crop production and socio economics will be incorporated into an integrated assessment model to determine the overall impact. |