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Sri Lanka Projects -> Asia Climate Digest -> July 2003 A look at climate, its impacts and outlook in Asia Updated July 2003 Highlights The momentum in the eastern Pacific to a La Niña has stalled and indeed even regressed to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation characteristics. However, there still remain La Niña type warm anomalies especially in the equatorial western Pacific Ocean. The Arabian Sea particularly towards the equator remains unseasonably warmer along with the Red Seas and the Mediterranean seas. These sea surface patterns were influential in the pattern of increased rainfall in the Central Asian regions, in the Western Indian Ocean and in South-Eastern China and rainfall deficits in the Indian subcontinent and the Indonesian archipelago. The preponderantly warm seas also contributed to the occasional heat waves in the Indian subcontinent that caused several deaths. The flooding in South-East China affected 100 million people and led to 589 deaths and economic losses estimated at $5 billion. In the Central Asian region of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the increased snow melt and enhanced rainfall led to flooding, landslides and damage to fruit cultivation. Drought prevailed in Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Indian states including Rajasthan and Karnataka leading to crop and livestock losses and outbreaks of disease such as Monkey fever. In Sri Lanka the overall tendency was towards drier than normal conditions, however, a severe but localized flood led to a death toll of 260 and affected 250,000 persons. The flood was caused by orographic rainfall due to intense winds caused by a cyclone that tracked its way700 km to the east in the Bay of Bengal. This episode of a flood amidst a drought seems paradoxical at first. It illustrates the nuances in spatial and temporal scale in the relationship of weather events to seasonal climatic anomalies that can befuddle users of climate information. The predictions for the remainder of summer monsoon in the Indian subcontinent are for a slightly wetter tendency. Following the record deficit rainfall last summer in India, this shall be welcome. On the other hand, Indonesia shows strong dry tendency for Sumatra and a wet tendency for the islands in the West of the archipelago particularly in Borneo, Irian Jaya and Papua New Guinea. The predictions for the upcoming season generally show a warm tendency except for slight cooling in the Indonesian islands. One must take some caution with these predictions since the Indian Ocean sea surface predictions (that are used as boundary conditions for global climate models) are not as skillful as that for the Pacific Ocean. Table of Contents
A list of sources for climate impacts information can be found at the end of the Climate Digest impacts page. Hazards
Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan Heavy rains and snow melt triggered flooding and mud and landslides in western Tajikistan and southwestern Kyrgyzstan. Slides near the Tajik capital of Dushanbe caused one death, affected 200 homes, and killed 500 domestic animals. (AFP) A 5 kilometer strip of land between the Ilyak and Kofernihon Rivers flooded when they burst their banks. Over 100 houses lost their kitchen gardens in the flood, placing residents in a vulnerable position and requiring many of them to accept long-term food assistance. (IRIN) Eleven homes were destroyed and 38 people are missing and assumed dead after a landslide moved through the village of Karatarik in Kyrgyzstan. (IRIN)
Sri Lanka May is the month when the heavy Yala season rains start and the southwest of Sri Lanka is expected to become wet. From the 11th to the 19th of May 2003, a tropical storm made its way across the Bay of Bengal with torrential rainfall causing perhaps 300 deaths, the displacement of 200,000 persons, and resulting in heavy damage to the infrastructure, economy and livelihoods of southwestern Sri Lanka. Particularly hard hit were the tea, rice, and rubber industries. According to the head of the Tea Association of Sri Lanka, the output of low-grown tea, which comprises more than half of the country's crop, could drop by 20-30% in the next three months. The impact of the disaster on the Sri Lanka's economic growth has been assessed at 5.5% by the central bank. The flooding was considered the worst to affect the region in 50 years. IRI, OCHA, OCHA , OCHA, Reuters June 2003Bangladesh,India,Nepal Monsoon rains brought seasonal flooding and landslides to the Brahmaputra, Ganges, Meghna, Padma, and Jamuna River basins in eastern Nepal, eastern India, and Bangladesh, resulting in unofficial nationwide death tolls of 30, 203, and 80, respectively, as of 15 July. Many of the deaths in Bangladesh were due to landslides in the southeast. Millions are said to be affected by the slides and flooding in the 15 affected districts in Bangladesh and soil erosion has become a serious concern as well. Nearly 5 million people have been displaced in India, most of whom live in Assam and Bihar, the most seriously affected Indian provinces. Water shortages and water-borne diseases are also causing problems and efforts to fight outbreaks of malaria and Japanese encephalitis are underway. (IFRC, AFP, Reuters, DPA, AFP)
China Heavy rains, which began around June 20 and dropped as much as 400 mm (16 in) of rain in some areas, have brought damaging floods and landslides to portions of southern, central, and eastern China. Approximately 100 million people have been affected and 500,000 homes have been destroyed in 16 provinces by the floods and heavy rain. The Huai River valley, home to 150 million people and one of the major grain producing regions, has been hit the hardest. Nationwide economic losses have been approximated to be 4.8 billion USD, half of which occurred in the Huai River valley. In Anhui Province, one of three provinces in the river valley, 1 million people have been evacuated and water levels have reached record levels in many areas, destroying 2 million hectares of farmland. In an effort to save large cities and industrial towns along the river in Anhui, dam gates were opened and embankments were blown up to divert the flood waters. While the current floods are being compared to those of 1991 and 1998, the most recent nationwide death toll of 589 is a fraction of those of the earlier events, which were measured in the thousands. (IFRC, AFP, IFRC, OCHA, Reuters) The rains proved to be beneficial in the northeast, however, as they provided much needed moisture for emerging crops there. (USDA)
Agriculture
Afghanistan Although water is still a scarce commodity in Afghanistan after years of war and drought, better rainfall since September 2002 is expected to contribute to a record wheat harvest and has reportedly helped water resources in the southern part of the country. USDA is projecting a record wheat harvest this year due to the end of dry conditions in most areas of the country. According to the USDA report, estimated accumulated precipitation this spring was higher than last year's total in all regions except the west. The wetter conditions in the fall of 2002 may have induced farmers to increase the acreage planted, helping to increase production. As of mid-June, the wheat harvest had started and was expected to continue until August. Improved rainfall in recent months has also brought some relief in southern Afghanistan, where farmers and nomadic herders have been affected by the long-term drought. The Gand-i-Dhala reservoir north of Kandahar has reportedly refilled after having gone dry in June 2000. (AFP) India The IFRC has issued a new appeal to aid the 300 million people affected by the long-term drought in India. Rajasthan has been hit the hardest of the 12 affected states, where 54 million livestock have been lost and 4.8 million hectares of crops have been destroyed. The current drought, which was heightened by last year's monsoon failure, is said to tbe the most widespread in 15 years. Officials are concerned about the population, particularly women and children, as food security and water quality continue to be serious problems. (12-month WASP Index)
Kyrgyzstan Above-average precipitation in June brought a variety of impacts to Kyrgyzstan, which climatologically receives most of its annual rainfall in spring. The worst fruit harvest in 35 years, according to village elders in the southern provinces of Osh, Batken, and Jalal-Abad, was blamed on the rains and recurring frost. The apricot harvest in Batken has dropped 75 percent from that of last year. Fruit prices have climbed to unaffordable levels in many areas, worrying officials that the lack of fruit in children's diets will bring the many health impacts associated with vitamin deficiencies. The rains also came during an ongoing debate about improving the country's environmental policy and preparedness for its frequent natural disasters (IRIN, IRIN, IRIN) Health
Bangladesh,India The death toll from a heat wave in south Asia has risen to at least 1438 in India and 40 in Bangladesh. The southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh has been the most severely affected with 1317 deaths; peak temperatures there have been between 113 and 120 degrees Fahrenheit during the last few weeks. Most of the deaths have occurred among the poor daily wage laborers, construction workers and rickshaw pullers.
The continuing dry spell in southern India state of Karnataka is being blamed for an outbreak of Kyanasur Forest Disease, or monkey fever. This tick-borne virus, often found on dead monkeys, has killed 10 and affected 253 people, the highest number of cases in recent years. Climatologically, May is the warmest month of the year in India and heat waves often occur prior to
the onset of the summer monsoon. This year's heat wave has been particularly harsh, with temperatures as much as 10 deg. C above average,
and record high temperatures set at some locations. BBC, CNN, OCHA, IFRC
Singapore The recent hot weather in Singapore is believed to have contributed to a doubling of dengue cases over last year's total; 1842 cases have been reported so far this year. Mosquitoes, and the dengue viruses they carry, develop more quickly under warmer temperatures, increasing dengue transmission. ProMED June 2003Pakistan Long-term drought in Pakistan has led to water shortages and related health ailments in the Sindh Province. Approximately 150,000 people live in villages near the coastal city of Karachi, many of whom have been forced to use dirty and contaminated water. Nearly 500 people in these communities have been diagnosed with health problems related to the poor water quality, including fever and skin and eye allergies. (IRIN) Water Resources
Taiwan With reduced rainfall in recent months reservoir levels in northern Taiwan are well below average, prompting officials to reduce water pressure in northern counties at night in an effort to reduce consumption. The unusually dry spring this year follows a severe drought throughout Taiwan in 2002. Water levels in the Tsengwen and Wushantou reservoirs in Tainan County dropped to their second lowest levels in the past three decades, according to an article in the Taipei Times. While tropical storm Nangka brought heavy rain to southern Taiwan in early June and subsequent rains in the north have brought some relief, a healthy rainy season is needed to raise water levels. Taipei Times, Taipei Times Fisheries
China Thousands of valued grouper have been killed by red tide in the Pearl River delta in the province of Guangdong in southeastern China, causing large economic loses to local fish breeders. Algal blooms typically occur when river levels fall, allowing pollution, a food source for the algae, to become more concentrated in the water. Much of southeastern China has been dry for the past few months, and water levels in Xijiang and Beijiang, two of the Pearl River's major contributory areas, have fallen. Red tide harms fish, shellfish, and other water wildlife by producing toxins and consuming oxygen in the water. Water resource managers in the area are concerned that its appearance during the river's normal flood season may indicate that the region is facing a severe drought that will allow the algae bloom to continue. According to a Guangdong water resource official, red tides in flood seasons are often predictors of severe drought in the province later in the year. (Xinhua/ProMed, AFP) Climate Summary
Precipitation
Oceanic Conditions
Precipitation Map, Temperature Map. Precipitation forecast
Temperature forecast
Precipitation Map, Temperature Map. Precipitation forecast
Temperature forecast
Compiled by Lareef Zubair and Jia Fang in consultation with the Climate Digest Team, based on material in IRI Climate Digest and IRI Map Room, and forecasts produced by IRI . Feedback: is welcome as to shortcomings and request for additional material. Send e-mail to
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