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NOTE: WE WILL HAVE AN INFORMAL ORIENTATION SUNDAY EVENING, JULY 7 at 7:00pm AT THE IBM CENTER.

*Week One: july 8-12, 2002*
	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
	8 july	9 july	10 july	11 july	12 july
	8:45am Drop-Off
MODULE	Introduction to the Training Institute	Understanding and Predicting Climate Fluctuations	Understanding and Predicting Climate Fluctuations	Understanding and Predicting Climate Fluctuations	Understanding and Predicting Climate Fluctuations
9:00am-10:30am	The IRI R. Basher	The Scientific Basis for Seasonal Prediction N. Ward	Methods of Prediction N. Ward	Statistical Transformation of Dynamic Model Output H. Feddersen	Downscaling in Space H. Feddersen
9:00am-10:30am	A Framework for Developing Agricultural Applications of Seasonal Forecasts J. Hansen	The Scientific Basis for Seasonal Prediction N. Ward	The El Niño-Southern Oscillation C. Ropelewski		Dynamic Downscaling A. Robertson
10:30am-11:00am	*Coffee Break*
11:00am-12:30pm	*Keynote:* Beyond Climate Information: What Else is Needed for Food Security and Poverty Alleviation? J. Kijne	Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions and El Niño L. Goddard	Statistical Forecast Models S. Mason	Operational Forecast Systems T. Barnston	Downscaling in Time A. Robertson
11:00am-12:30pm		Evaluating Predictability: Dynamic Climate Models N. Ward	Statistical Forecast Models S. Mason	Evaluating Forecast Quality S. Mason	Downscaling in Time A. Robertson
12:30am-1:30pm	*Lunch*
1:30pm-3:00pm	Funding Your Own Research: How to Write a Winning Proposal M. Fuchs-Carsch	Introduction to computers, software, data, procedures	Statistical rainfall prediction exercise	Model output transformation exercise	Statistical downscaling exercise
3:00pm-3:30pm	*Coffee Break*
3:30pm-5:30pm	Funding Your Own Research: How to Write a Winning Proposal M. Fuchs-Carsch	Analyze observed SST-wind -precipitation relationships	Statistical rainfall prediction exercise	Model output transformation exercise	Compare skill of GCM, multivariate statistical and ENSO phase forecasts at a station scale
	5:45pm Pick-Up
	*Dinner*
Evening	Proposal clinic M. Fuchs-Carsch, A Friese	Proposal clinic M. Fuchs-Carsch, A. Friese			Assignment: Review proposals of four peers
SATURDAY, JULY 13 IS RESERVED FOR A NEW YORK CITY TOUR! WE WILL MEET AT THE FRONT DESK AT THE IBM CENTER AT 11:45AM.

*Week Two: july 15-19, 2002*
	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
	15 july	16 july	17 july	18 july	19 july
	8:45amDrop-Off
MODULE	Understanding and Predicting Agricultural Impacts	Understanding and Predicting Agricultural Impacts	Analyzing Management Responses to Forecasts	Analyzing Management Responses to Forecasts	Analyzing Management Responses to Forecasts
MODULE	Peer proposal evaluations due	Understanding and Predicting Agricultural Impacts	Analyzing Management Responses to Forecasts	Analyzing Management Responses to Forecasts	Analyzing Management Responses to Forecasts
9:00am-10:30am	Weather-Sensitive Agricultural Models: Principles J. Jones	Predicting Regional Production: Principles J. Hansen	Reports from Tuesday exercise	Constrained Optimization Models for Decision Analysis D. Letson	Eliciting Decision Structure and Decision Rules D. Letson
9:00am-10:30am		Predicting Regional Production: Applications J. Jones	Interpreting Historical Agricultural Data J. Hansen		Farm-level Decision Analysis: Introduction J. Hansen
10:30am-11:00am	*Coffee Break*
11:00am-12:30pm	Weather-Sensitive Agricultural Models: Crop Simulation and Applications J. Jones	Linking Climate Prediction to Agricultural Models J. Hansen	A Risk Management Framework J. Hansen	Multiple Criteria Decisions D. Letson	Farm-level Decision Analysis: Farm Land Allocation Case Study D. Letson
11:00am-12:30pm		Linking Models with k Nearest Neighbor Weighted Historic Analogs U. Lall	Principles of Retrospective Decision Analysis J. Hansen	Enterprise-level Decision Analysis J. Hansen	Incorporating Market-level Effects: Tomato Production Case Study C. Messina
12:30am-1:30pm	*Lunch*
1:30pm-3:00pm	Crop simulation tutorial	Predict yields from climate forecasts	Analyze association between yield data and ENSO	Analyze value of forecasts for optimal crop management	Analyze value of forecasts for optimal farm enterprise mix
3:00pm-3:30pm	*Coffee Break*
3:30pm-5:30pm	Crop simulation tutorial	Predict yields from climate forecasts	Analyze association between yield data and ENSO	Analyze value of forecasts for optimal crop management	Analyze value of forecasts for optimal farm enterprise mix
				Weekend Homework: Revise Proposals
	5:45pm Pick-Up
SUNDAY, JULY 21: PROPOSAL PEER REVIEW PANEL 2:00PM-5:00PM JULY 21 AT THE IBM CENTER PROPOSAL CLINIC AFTER DINNER

*Week Three: july 22-26, 2002*
	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
	22 july	23 july	24 july	25 july	26 july
	8:45am Drop-Off
MODULE	Understanding Decision Makers	Understanding Decision Makers	Institutionalizing Support for Forecast Applications	Communicating Forecast Information
9:00am-10:30am	Understanding Decision Makers P. Hildebrand	Introduction to Ethnographic Linear Programming of Small Farm Livelihood Systems P. Hildebrand	Scientific and Local Knowledge Systems: Bridging the Gaps J. Gilles	Communicating Forecast Uncertainty and Cognitive Anomalies P. Hayman	Panel discussion: opportunities and strategies for implementation
9:00am-10:30am	Relevant Questions P. Hildebrand		Diffusion of Innovations: An Overview J. Gilles	Demonstration of two 'games' to relay concept of probabilities in the field P. Hayman
10:30am-11:00am	*Coffee Break*
11:00am-12:30am	Food Security in Developing Countries: Livelihood Activities and Portfolios C. Valdivia	Livelihood system matrices	The Role of the Innovation and the Social System in Adoptions J. Gilles	Basic Principles of Decision Making G. Marcus	Training workshop evaluation
				Designing Communication Processes that help Decision Makers J. Phillips
				From Decision Support Systems to Discussion Support Systems H. Meinke
12:30am-1:30pm	*Lunch*
1:30pm-3:00pm	Livelihood system profiles	Livelihood system matrices	Networks	Probability games; communication role playing	Project awards; Project guidelines; Assignment of mentors
3:00pm-3:30pm	*Coffee Break*
3:30pm-5:00pm	The Sondeo Virtual Sondeo P. Hildebrand Survey Design and Interpretation C. Valdivia	Livelihood system matrices	Diffusion strategy	Probability games; communication role playing	Project awards; Project guidelines; Assignment of mentors
	5:45pm Pick-Up
	*Dinner*
Evening	Proposal clinic M. Fuchs-Carsch				Closing Ceremony

Last Updated on 8/20/02
By IRI

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