The different sections present some preliminary results from the verification assessment of the DePreSys perturbed physics hindcasts from the Hadley Centre, based on the model described in Smith et al. Science 317 , 796 (2007).
Verification Metrics
Verification metrics should be chosen to answer specific questions regarding the quality of the forecast information. For example, they can identify where errors or biases exist in the forecasts to guide more effective use of them. The proposed questions address the accuracy in the forecast information and the representativeness of the forecast ensembles to indicate forecast uncertainty. Specifically, these questions are:
Question 1: Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate?
Question 2: Is the model's ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average?
Question 3: In the case that the forecast ensemble does offer information on overall forecast uncertainty, does the forecast-to-forecast variability of the ensemble spread carry meaningful information?
