Background

Goddard has been working for the IRI since 1995, developing and improving IRI's climate forecasts. She has a Ph.D. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences from Princeton University, where she did her thesis research on the physics and energetics of El Niño at GFDL with George Philander. (CV)

Research Interests

Goddard pursues several lines of research aimed at improving the quality and content of seasonal climate predictions. This goal is approached with a focus on climate diagnostics and climate predictability. Research areas include

• El Niño/La Niña and their impact on climate variability and predictability,

• Methodologies for identifying the relative importance of regional SSTs to regional climate variability,

• Assessment of climate prediction tools, and

• Strategies for advancing research, development and implementation of climate forecasts.

Goddard also contributes to the real time production of IRI's ENSO outlook and seasonal climate forecasts.

Published Papers

Goddard, L., A. Kumar. A. G. Barnston and M. P. Hoerling. 2006. Diagnosis of anomalous winter temperatures over the eastern United States during the 2002/03 El Niño. J. Climate, 19: 5624-5636.

Goddard, L. and M. Dilley, 2006. Reply to Comments on “El Niño: Catastrophe or Opportunity”. J. Climate, 19: 6443–6445.

Greene, A.M., L. Goddard, and U. Lall. 2006. Probabilistic multimodel regional temperature change projections. J. Climate, 19: 4326-4343.

Barnston, A.G., A. Kumar, L. Goddard, and M.P. Hoerling. 2005. Improving seasonal prediction practices through attribution of climate variability. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86: 59-72.

Berri, G.J., Antico, P.L., and Goddard, L.. 2005. Evaluation of the Climate Outlook Forum seasonal precipitation forecasts of Southeast South America during 1998-2002. Int. J. Climatol., 25: 365-377.

L. Goddard and M. Dilley. 2005. El Nino: Catastrophe or opportunity. J. Climate, 18: 651-665.

Landman, W. A., S. Botes, L. Goddard, and M. Shongwe. Assessing the predictability of extreme rainfall seasons over southern Africa. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32: L23819, doi:10.1029/2005GL023787

Landman, W. A. and L. Goddard. 2005. Predicting southern African summer rainfall using a combination of MOS and perfect prognosis. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32: L15809, doi:10.1029/2005GL022910.

Potgieter, A.B., Hammer, G.L., Meinke, H., Stone, R.C., and Goddard, L.. 2005. Spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield reveals three types of El Niño. J. Climate, 18: 1566-1574.

Tippett, M.K., Goddard, L., and Barnston, A.G. 2005. Statistical-dynamical seasonal forecasts of Central Southwest Asia winter preicipitation, J. Climate, 18, 1831-1843.

Kumar, A., F. Yang, L. Goddard, and S. Schubert. 2004. Differing trends in the tropical surface temperatures and precipitation over land and oceans. J. Climate, 17: 653-664.

Robertson, A.W., Zebiak, S.E., U. Lall, and L. Goddard. 2004. Optimal combination of multiple atmospheric GCM ensembles for seasonal prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132: 2732-2744, DOI: 10.1175/MWR2818.1.

Barnston, A.G., S.J. Mason, L. Goddard, D. G. DeWitt, and S. E. Zebiak. 2003. Increased automation and use of multi-model ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at the IRI. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84: 1783-1796.

Goddard, L., A. G. Barnston and S.J. Mason. 2003. Evaluation of the IRI's "Net Assessment" seasonal climate forecasts: 1997-2001. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84: 1761-1781.

Goddard, L. and S.J. Mason, 2002. Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies. Climate Dynamics, 19:619-632, DOI 10.1007/s00382-002-0251-y. (PDF version), (HTML version)

Landman, W.A. and L. Goddard. 2002. Statistical recalibration of GCM forecats over southern Africa using model output statistics. J. Climate, 15: 2038-2055.

Goddard, L., S. J. Mason, S. E. Zebiak, C. F. Ropelewski, R. Basher, and M. A. Cane. 2001. Current approaches to seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions. Int. J. Climatology, 21 (9): 1111-1152. (PDF version)

Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001. Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 82: 619-638.

Gershunov, A., T.P. Barnett, D. Cayan, A. Tubbs, and L. Goddard, 2000. Predicting ENSO impacts on intraseasonal precipitation in California: The 1997-98 event. J. Hydrometeorology, 1: 201-210.

Goddard, L. and S. G. H. Philander, 2000. The energetics of El Niño and La Niña. J. Climate, 13: 1496-1516.

Kumar, A, A. G. Barnston, P. Peng, M.P. Hoerling, and L. Goddard, 2000. Changes in the spread of the variability of the seasonal mean atmospheric states associated with ENSO. J. Climate, 13: 3139-3151.

Peng, P., A. Kumar, A.G. Barnston, and L. Goddard, 2000. Simulation skills of the SST-forced global climate variability of the NCEP-MRF9 and the Scripps-MPI ECHAM3 models. J. Climate, 13: 3657-3679.

Goddard, L. and N. E. Graham, 1999. The importance of the Indian Ocean for simulating precipitation anomalies over eastern and southern Africa. J. Geophys. Res., 104: 19099-19116.

Mason, S. J., L. Goddard, N. E. Graham, E. Yulaeva, L. Sun, and P. A. Arkin, 1999. The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/98 El Niño. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80: 1853-1873.

Goddard, L. and N. E. Graham, 1997. El Niño the 1990s. J. Geophys. Res., 102: 10423-10436.

Published Papers - Not Peer Reviewed

Goddard, L. and D.G. DeWitt, 2005. Seeking progress in El Niño Prediction, U.S. CLIVAR Variations, Winter 2005, Vol. 3. (Invited).

Goddard, L., S.J. Mason, and A.W. Robertson, 2005. Multi-model ensembling: Combining and refining, CLIVAR Exchanges, Jan 2005, No 32 (Vol. 10, No.1).

Submitted/In Press

Hansen, J.W., M. Dilley, L. Goddard, E. Ebrahimian, and P. Ericksen. Climate variability and the Millenium Development Goal Hunger Target. Development and Change, submitted.

Li, S., L. Goddard, and D. G. DeWitt, Predictive skill of seasonal climate forecasts relative to skill of regional SST anomalies. J. Climate, submitted.

Mason, S. J., J. S. Galpin, L. Goddard, N. E. Graham, and B. Rajartnam. Conditional exceedence probabilities. Mon. Wea. Rev., in press.

Conference Proceedings/Abstracts/Presented Papers (recent)

Goddard, L. and S. J. Mason. 2005. Multi-Model Ensembling for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction: From Simple to Complex. NOAA's 30th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, State College, PA, 24-28 October, 2005 INVITED.

Goddard, L. S. J. Mason, and A. W. Robertson. 2005. Multi-Model Ensembling: A Comparison of Approaches. AGU Spring Meeting, New Orleans, LA, 23-27 May 2005. INVITED.

Goddard, L. and D. G. DeWitt. 2005. Observational Issues Relevant to Seasonal-to-Interannual Modeling and Prediction. OCO 3rd Annual Systems Review, Silver Spring, MD, 25-27 April 2005. INVITED.

Goddard, L.. 2005. Predictability versus Predictionability in the Tropical Atlantic Region. US CLIVAR Atlantic Science Conference, Miami, FL, 1-4 February 2005. INVITED.

Goddard, L.. 2003. El Niño: Catastrophe or Opportunity. Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Reno, NV, 20-24 October 2003.

Goddard, L., Mason, S.J., and Robertson, A.W. 2003. Multi-Model Ensembling: Refining and Combining. EGS-AGU-EGU Joint Assembly, Nice, France, 7-11 April 2003.

Goddard, L., Barnston, A.G. and Zebiak, S.E. 2002. Dynamic Characterization of ENSO using a multi-index approach. 27th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop. Fairfax, VA, 21-25 October 2002.

Goddard, L., 2002. How important is "uncoupled" atmospheric variability to El Niño development: An energetics perspective. Conference on El Niño Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction. Trieste, IT, 11-14 June 2002.

Goddard, L., 2002. Evolution of the Tropical Pacific in 2002. Conference on El Niño Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction. Trieste, IT, 11-14 June 2002. INVITED

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