South America

April 2000

Above Average Temperatures Expected to Continue Over Most of Argentina, Uruguay, and Southeast Brazil

Contents: Impacts | Climate | Forecast | Links

April catch for small pelagics in Peru were approximately 850,000 metric tons. Total cumulative catch for 2000 is approximately 3,232,000 metric tons, compared with 2,203,000 for the same period in 1999. Fishing along most of the coast ended in mid April due to a seasonal fishing ban which is expected to last through early May. Informal discussions between the fishing industry and the government indicate that a May - July quota of approximately 2.5 million metric tons may likely be set.

Climate

Temperatures Temperatures were 1 to 2C above average across central and southern Brazil as well as Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, and northern Argentina.

Temperature Difference from the 1961-1990 Mean

Temperature Mean from April 1961-1990

NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS Temperature Anomaly

DATA: M. New, Univ. of East Anglia

Precipitation

Precipitation Difference from 1961-1990 mean, with data from NCEP Climate Prediction Center, CAMS-OPI.

Precipitation Mean from April 1961-1990

[ ( NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS_OPI v9906 mean prcp ) - ( NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS_OPI v9906 mean prcp climatology ) ] * Precipitation Anomaly

DATA: M. New, Univ. of East Anglia

April-June Seasonal Forecast

For detailed discussion of assumptions and methods used in generating this South America forecast, please refer to the Forecast Discussion

Precipitation Outlook

Maps are given showing expected precipitation probabilities in tercile classes. The maps indicate probabilities that seasonal precipitation will fall into the wettest third of the years (top number), the middle third of years (middle number) or the driest third of the years (bottom). An outlook of climatology "C" (light grey) indicates equal probabilities in each class; i.e., there is no basis for favoring the forecast of any particular category. Areas marked "D" (dark grey) experience a pronounced dry season during the forecast period, typically receiving less than 15% of their annual precipitation or less than 5 cm total during this three-month period. Boundaries between sub-regions should be considered transition zones, and their location considered to be only qualitatively correct.

Temperature Outlook

The temperature map shows expected probabilities that the seasonal temperatures will fall into the warmest third of the years (top number), the middle third of the years, or the coldest third of the years (bottom number). A qualitative outlook of climatology "C" (light grey) indicates equal probabilities in each class; i.e., there is no basis for favoring the forecast of any particular category. Boundaries between sub-regions should be considered transition zones, and their location considered to be only qualitatively correct.

The full IRI seasonal forecast for April-June 2000 can be found at http://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu/climate/forecasts/net_asmt/

South America

April 2000

Links to IRI Research Applications in Africa:

Links to Climatological and Meteorological Organizations in South America: