• Severe Drought in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India
• Above Average Temperatures Continue Throughout Most of Asia

Hazards/Threats

Afghanistan, Pakistan and India Southern Afghanistan and southwestern Pakistan are experiencing a drought emergency. In southern Afghanistan, insufficient rainfall in 1998/1999 has continued through April. Relief agencies expect that rural and urban areas will suffer from a serious lack of drinking water, increased outbreaks of disease, heavy loss of livestock, and crop failure in the part of the country which is usually the most fertile. Story: (DRO); Situation reports: (ReliefWeb)

Climate

Temperatures With the exception of southeastern Asia, temperatures continued above average over most of the entire region.

Precipitation
Indonesia Above average rainfall was observed throughout the region with localized very heavy rains.
Southeast Asia Precipitation was well above average across Malaysia as well as much of Thailand and Burma.
China Below average rainfall was observed across the North China Plain. Locally heavy rains along the central east coast resulted in above average precipitation there.

For detailed discussion of assumptions and methods used in generating this Asia forecast, please refer to the Forecast Discussion

Precipitation Outlook
 

Maps are given showing expected precipitation probabilities in tercile classes. The maps indicate probabilities that seasonal precipitation will fall into the wettest third of the years (top number), the middle third of years (middle number) or the driest third of the years (bottom). An outlook of climatology "C" (light grey) indicates equal probabilities in each class; i.e., there is no basis for favoring the forecast of any particular category. Areas marked "D" (dark grey) experience a pronounced dry season during the forecast period, typically receiving less than 15% of their annual precipitation or less than 5 cm total during this three-month period. Boundaries between sub-regions should be considered transition zones, and their location considered to be only qualitatively correct

• Climatological Average of Seasonal Precipitation
• Tercile Thresholds of Seasonal Precipitation

The temperature map shows expected probabilities that the seasonal temperatures will fall into the warmest third of the years (top number), the middle third of the years, or the coldest third of the years (bottom number). A qualitative outlook of climatology "C" (light grey) indicates equal probabilities in each class; i.e., there is no basis for favoring the forecast of any particular category. Boundaries between sub-regions should be considered transition zones, and their location considered to be only qualitatively correct.

• Climatological Average of Seasonal Temperatures
• Tercile Thresholds of Seasonal Temperatures

The full IRI seasonal forecast for April-June 2000 can be found at http://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu/climate/forecasts/net_asmt/
 
 
 

Links to IRI Research Applications in Asia:

• Management Responses to Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Cropping Systems of South Asia's Semi-Arid Tropics
• Studying Indonesian Forest-Fire Situations for Identifying Potential Uses of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasts

Links to Climatological and Meteorological Organizations in Asia:

• The Brunei Meteorological Service (BMS)
• Beijing National Meteorological Center, China
• Hong Kong Observatory
• Badan Meterologi Dan Geofisika (BMG) - English Version, Indonesia
• Musiake Lab, Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, University of Tokyo, Japan
• Korea Meteorological Administration
• Malaysian Meteorological Service
• Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch (CAB) of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
• Meteorological Service Singapore
• Taiwan Central Weather Bureau
• Thailand Meteorological Department
• Asia Tropical Weather Information and Tracking
• Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center, Yokosuka Japan - Asia 12-Month Climatology
• Current Weather Images in Asia and the Middle East
• Japan's Climatology and Meteorology
• India Meteorological Department
• Sri Lanka Meteorology, Oceanography and Hydrology Network (SLMON)