Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing What’s New As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere and summer in the southern, seasonal forecasts in both hemispheres are showing some typical La Niña climate impacts as well as some surprises. Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing What’s New Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) have continued to cool in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, as well as to its […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing What’s New Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region (see first image below). The weekly SST anomalies in […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. What’s New Since last month’s briefing, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies have been similar to the previous month’s temperatures, ranging from +0.5ºC to +0.7ºC in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region (see first image below). While […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing What’s New Since last month’s briefing, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies have been similar to the previous month’s temperatures, ranging from +0.4ºC to +0.6ºC in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Since last month’s briefing, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies have increased slightly to +0.4ºC to +0.5ºC in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region (see first image below). These sea-surface temperatures […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Since last month’s briefing, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies have held steady at +0.2ºC to +0.3ºC in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region. While these sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) point to […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Since last month’s briefing, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies have ranged from -0.2ºC to +0.3ºC in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region. This is firmly in the range of neutral ENSO conditions, although other indicators of ENSO […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperatures have warmed in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region. Last week, the weekly anomaly for Nino3.4 was +0.1ºC — the first time […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperature anomalies in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, have warmed about a tenth of a degree. The past few weeks, these anomalies have been […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Since last month’s briefing, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, have remained within a tenth of a degree of the -0.5ºC threshold indicative of La […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperatures in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, have remained cooler-than-average. Since July, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies have been around or just below the -0.5ºC […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Sea-surface temperatures in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, are slightly cooler than those in the weeks leading up to last month’s briefing. Since July, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies have […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Sea-surface temperatures in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, remain similar to those from last month’s briefing. Since July, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies (see first image below) have been […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Conditions in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, remain similar to those from last month’s briefing. While ocean temperatures are indicating a weak La Niña event could be imminent, atmospheric […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Neutral conditions remain in the central equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region. Recent weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies dipped just below the -0.5º threshold used to define La Niña, but those […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing The El Niño event that began in spring 2015 has come to an end. Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, have been in the neutral category […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing The El Niño event declared over a year ago is in its last weeks, with odds for at least a weak La Niña to develop by late summer are pegged at more than 50%. Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Over a year ago, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center and IRI jointly issued an El Niño advisory, indicating El Niño conditions had arrived and were expected to continue. That advisory is still in effect, but this month […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Due to sustained above-average sea surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean (see first image in gallery), the ongoing El Niño event continues to remain in the strong category. While the event is expected to quickly […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. The peak of the ongoing El Niño occurred in November 2015, but the event remains in “strong” category, and is likely to stay at moderate strength through April. The El Niño signal is still tipping the odds for certain climate impacts in some regions for the next several months (see seasonal […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing El Niño’s peak in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature came in late 2015, but the event is expected to stay strong, with climate impacts likely for the first few months of 2016. Recent wind patterns could lead to more Kelvin […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing As of mid-December, sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific were stable or down slightly compared to late November (see first image in first gallery). Tony Barnston, IRI’s chief climate forecaster, said the peak strength with respect to this metric of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Is it 1997? Rapid strengthening of the ongoing El Niño event over the last several weeks has made headlines, some saying that its strength has eclipsed that of the 1997-98 “super” El Niño event. But Tony Barnston, IRI’s chief climate forecaster, cautions that […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing The El Niño that officially began last March and became a “strong” event in July continues to strengthen, with the event expected to peak in the next few months. Even with the weakening projected […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing An El Niño event is now in full swing, with probabilities of its continuance similar to those forecasted last month and remaining at close to 100% through the first few months of 2016 (bottom […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Although 100% is technically not an achievable number in the world of ENSO and climate prediction, this El Niño forecast all but reaches it for the next several months. The odds are similar to […]
Read our ENSO Essentials and ENSO Impacts pages to learn more about El Niño + check out the Storified summary of the #IRIforecast discussion on Twitter. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Scientists usually cringe at the word certain, but the forecast for El Niño to continue through the July-September season […]
From the June climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Over the last month, the ongoing El Niño in the east-central Pacific has intensified to moderate strength. There is now a 99% chance of El Niño for the June-August season, and chances stay […]
From the May climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing El Niño, a state of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, has recently intensified, though scientists aren’t sure how strong the event will become. The El Niño phenomenon is part of a natural cycle of […]
From the April climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing A weak El Niño continues in the central Pacific, and the chance that such conditions will persist has risen since last month’s forecast. It hovers around 80% through late summer, although it should be noted […]
From the March climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center and IRI issued an El Niño advisory, which indicates that El Niño conditions are present and expected to persist for the next […]
From the February climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (February – April) season is around 48%, down from 63% last month. These odds for the current season are down slightly from those issued by […]
From the January climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (January – March) season is around 63%, down from 76% last month. These odds for the current season are similar to those issued by the NOAA […]
From the December climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (December-February) season is over 80%, up slightly from last month. These odds for the current season are also higher than those issued by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center/IRI […]
From the November climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (November-January) season is about 75%, up slightly from last month. These odds for the November-January season are also higher than those issued by the NOAA Climate Prediction […]
From the October climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (October-December) season is between 65 and 70%, down slightly from last month. These odds for the October-December season are similar to those issued by […]
From the September climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the September-November season is 55%, which is the same as the forecast for the same period that was issued in August. The probability for El Niño development by the late […]
From the August climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the August-October season is 40%, down from 60% last month. The probability for El Niño development by the late months of 2014, […]
From the July climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing The latest model runs have reduced the chance of an El Niño developing by late summer in the Northern Hemisphere. The probability of an El Niño forming during the current July-September […]
From the June climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing As the northern hemisphere summer gets underway, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shows signs of borderline neutral/weak El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific. However, conditions in the atmosphere remain ENSO-neutral. The Niño3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly […]
By IRI Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston This post originally appeared on Climate.gov’s ENSO blog. Reproduced with permission. Many people are interested in knowing which ENSO category (La Niña, neutral or El Niño) is expected by the climate experts, just as they might want to know the weather forecast for tomorrow. They usually prefer a simple […]
By IRI Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston This post originally appeared on Climate.gov’s ENSO blog. Reproduced with permission. ENSO arises from changes across the tropical Pacific Ocean. So why does ENSO affect the climate over sizable portions of the globe, including some regions far removed from the tropical Pacific Ocean? Does the strength of ENSO matter […]
From the May climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are borderline neutral/El Niño. The Nino3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly was +0.5° C last week, which is the threshold for El Niño. Forecaster Tony Barnston […]
From the April climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently neutral, although the warming process has begun. The IRI’s April ENSO forecast puts the chances of El Niño conditions at more than 70% for early next […]
From the March climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing The IRI’s March ENSO forecast puts the chances of El Niño conditions at 60% for early next fall, an increase from the 45% probability in IRI’s February forecast and the 52% probability from NOAA/IRI’s official […]
From February’s climate briefing, given by our Tony Barnston: The central and eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing borderline La Niña conditions, but many models are forecasting an El Niño to develop this (northern hemisphere) summer. Although scientists still don’t know the exact mechanism behind the Pacific’s transition from one state of the El Niño […]
In December 2011, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society issued a seasonal precipitation forecast. The forecast called for a 75 percent chance of above normal precipitation over parts of the Philippines between January and March. As the months played out, storms brought roughly eight inches more rain than usual for the period. That’s about 85 percent […]
Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world. Life expectancy there is 54 years, and it has an infant mortality rate higher than any other country except Afghanistan. It is also a country that is extremely vulnerable to climate variability and change. The livelihoods of four out of five people in Niger depend […]
Last month was the warmest March ever recorded in the U.S, according to the National Weather Service. Here in the northeast, we saw daffodils, tulips and the other colorful banners that signal spring unfurl a few weeks earlier than usual. Even though average temperatures were breaking records, however, the early flowering wasn’t extreme or unusual, says Robert […]
What do the economy and tropical ocean temperatures have in common? They’re both exhibiting patterns very similar to 2008. At the International Research Institute for Climate and Society’s monthly climate briefing, chief forecaster Tony Barnston focused more on the latter. He laid out the past and the present and what clues they provide about the future. The […]
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