Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-May, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures, while still slightly cool, are now within the range of ENSO-neutral. Atmospheric indicators are similarly consistent with the end of La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist through August-October 2021, […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-April, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures remained just within the weak La Niña range, and while some atmospheric indicators appeared weakly La Niña-like, others were consistent with ENSO neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts La Niña conditions are likely to dissipate by […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-March, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures remained below average and within the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts La Niña conditions are likely to dissipate by June 2021, with neutral […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-February, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures rose slightly but remained below average and within the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts La Niña conditions are likely to dissipate by April-June […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-January, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were well below average and into the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts La Niña conditions are likely to dissipate by May-June 2021, with […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-December, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were well below average and into the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts moderate or possibly strong La Niña conditions through 2020, approaching a […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-November, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were well below average and into the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts moderate or possibly strong La Niña conditions through 2020, approaching a […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-October, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were well below average and into the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts moderate or possibly strong La Niña conditions through 2020 and most […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-September, the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures were below average and into the weak/moderate La Niña range. Most atmospheric indicators also suggested La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts likely weak or moderate La Nina through fall and most of winter, […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-August, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were below average, near the threshold for weak La Niña conditions. Some atmospheric indicators showed neutral conditions while others leaned toward La Niña. A new set of model runs predicts that weak La Niña conditions are most likely […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-July, the sea-surface temperatures were slightly below average but in the ENSO-neutral range, and some atmospheric indicators showed neutral conditions while others leaned slightly toward La Niña. A new set of model runs predicts that cool-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are most likely […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. By mid-June, the sea surface temperatures had decreased to borderline La Niña levels, while some atmospheric indictors show La Niña-leaning conditions and a few show neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts cool-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are most likely from late […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-May, the sea surface temperatures had decreased to cool-neutral levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly neutral or slightly cool-leaning conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely from summer through winter, with a 51% probability for ENSO-neutral for […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-April, the sea surface temperatures were at warm-neutral to borderline El Niño levels, while atmospheric indictors showed mainly neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely through summer and fall, with an 81% probability for ENSO-neutral (19% […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-March, the sea-surface temperatures were at warm-neutral to borderline El Niño levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely through summer, with a 79% probability for ENSO-neutral (21% chance for El […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-February, the sea-surface temperatures were at warm-neutral levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly warm-neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely through summer, with a 61% probability for ENSO-neutral (39% chance for El Niño) for the February-April […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-January, the sea-surface temperatures were at warm-neutral to borderline El Niño levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly warm-neutral conditions. A new set of model runs from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the Climate Prediction Center predicts neutral conditions as […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Ángel G. Muñoz provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Weston Anderson provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Weston Anderson provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Ángel Muñoz provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Nachiketa Acharya provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides his last overview of the briefing: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides his last overview of the briefing: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation, and our update from March for much more on how this ENSO event has evolved. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New An abbreviated briefing update this month. See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation, and our update from March for much more on how this ENSO event has evolved. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New An abbreviated briefing update this month. See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation, and last month’s update for much more on how this ENSO event has evolved. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New The long-predicted El Niño event in the Pacific seems to finally have taken shape. While sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific cooled somewhat for a few weeks in the Niño3.4 region, other factors pointed towards El […]
This briefing update was written by Elisabeth Gawthrop and Jacquelyn Turner. Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have cooled slightly since this time last month. The SST conditions of the Niño3.4 region, shown in tweet image […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. What’s New Typically, as we near the end of a calendar year, there is relative certainty about the anticipated state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the coming months. At this time of year, the ENSO cycle is in a less chaotic state, and […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperatures have remained above average in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean that defines El Niño events (called Niño3.4 – see tweet below). The SSTs have been above the +0.50ºC anomaly threshold that helps […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperatures are warming up in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean that defines El Niño events (called Niño3.4 – see map below). Whether they stay that way will determine if an El Niño event […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New After months of neutral ENSO conditions and forecasts of an upcoming El Niño event, September has brought yet another month of the same. Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean region that defines El […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have bounced around some since last month’s briefing, but models continue to predict an El Niño event to develop. Weekly SST anomalies in the area of the […]
Análisis de inundaciones en Paraguay durante El Niño 2015-16 examina influencia del clima a multiples escalas de tiempo Traducido por Ángel G. Muñoz El río Paraguay es una vena esencial para un país sin acceso al mar que comparte su nombre. Provee a los paraguayos irrigación para agricultura, acceso a navegación, y mejora la pesca. […]
Analysis of Paraguay flooding event during 2015-16 El Niño examines influence of climate at multiple timescales The Paraguay River is an essential lifeblood for the landlocked country that shares it name. It provides Paraguayans with fishing, irrigation for agriculture and access to shipping. But it’s also prone to seasonal flooding, with especially high consequences for […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have continued to warm since last month’s briefing. Weekly SST anomalies in the area of the Pacific that helps define El Niño and La Niña events, […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have continued to warm since last month’s briefing. Weekly SST anomalies in the area of the Pacific that helps define El Niño and La Niña events, called […]
Mark Cane was instrumental in the 1996 establishment of Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society. By Kevin Krajick, Earth Institute Two scientists who untangled the complex forces that drive El Niño, the world’s most powerful weather cycle, have won the 2017 Vetlesen Prize for achievement in earth sciences. The $250,000 award will […]
Upmanu Lall is the director of the Columbia Water Center, a senior research scientist at IRI and the Alan & Carol Silberstein Professor of Engineering in the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences. In addition to other presentations at the 2016 American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, Lall will be presenting, “Quantifying conditional risks for water and […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing The El Niño event that began in spring 2015 has come to an end. Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, have been in the neutral category […]
In El Niño retrospective, lessons from Senegal In a three-part series for the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, graduate student Catherine Pomposi relates her experience in Senegal during the 2015 El Niño. She explains the 2015 El Niño forecast and its climate impacts in Senegal, as well as current efforts to better understand climate in […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing The El Niño event declared over a year ago is in its last weeks, with odds for at least a weak La Niña to develop by late summer are pegged at more than 50%. Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Over a year ago, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center and IRI jointly issued an El Niño advisory, indicating El Niño conditions had arrived and were expected to continue. That advisory is still in effect, but this month […]
In November 2015, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University, in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization, the U.S. Agency for International Development and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, convened the El Niño 2015 Conference. The report from this conference is now available. In addition to recordings and summaries of the […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Due to sustained above-average sea surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean (see first image in gallery), the ongoing El Niño event continues to remain in the strong category. While the event is expected to quickly […]
Pradipta Parhi, a graduate research assistant in Columbia’s Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering published a paper in the February 2016 issue of the Journal of Climate. The study examines why two areas of Africa – the Sahel and eastern equatorial Africa – tend to experience drier- and wetter-than-normal rainy seasons, respectively, during El Niño. He is […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. The peak of the ongoing El Niño occurred in November 2015, but the event remains in “strong” category, and is likely to stay at moderate strength through April. The El Niño signal is still tipping the odds for certain climate impacts in some regions for the next several months (see seasonal […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing El Niño’s peak in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature came in late 2015, but the event is expected to stay strong, with climate impacts likely for the first few months of 2016. Recent wind patterns could lead to more Kelvin […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing As of mid-December, sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific were stable or down slightly compared to late November (see first image in first gallery). Tony Barnston, IRI’s chief climate forecaster, said the peak strength with respect to this metric of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Is it 1997? Rapid strengthening of the ongoing El Niño event over the last several weeks has made headlines, some saying that its strength has eclipsed that of the 1997-98 “super” El Niño event. But Tony Barnston, IRI’s chief climate forecaster, cautions that […]
A strong El Niño event is in place in the tropical Pacific. IRI’s seasonal forecast for the October-December 2015 period, based on the most recent sea surface temperature projections, predicts a strong likelihood of below-average precipitation for regions in the western equatorial Pacific, including much of the Philippines. The strong likelihood of reduced rainfall during […]
One of the strongest El Niño events ever measured is now underway. It is already causing droughts and flooding in different parts of the world, and affecting food production, water availability, public health and energy supplies in a number of countries. The last major El Niño occurred in 1997/98, wreaking widespread havoc and erasing years of development gains. The world is […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing The El Niño that officially began last March and became a “strong” event in July continues to strengthen, with the event expected to peak in the next few months. Even with the weakening projected […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing An El Niño event is now in full swing, with probabilities of its continuance similar to those forecasted last month and remaining at close to 100% through the first few months of 2016 (bottom […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Although 100% is technically not an achievable number in the world of ENSO and climate prediction, this El Niño forecast all but reaches it for the next several months. The odds are similar to […]
Read our ENSO Essentials and ENSO Impacts pages to learn more about El Niño + check out the Storified summary of the #IRIforecast discussion on Twitter. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Scientists usually cringe at the word certain, but the forecast for El Niño to continue through the July-September season […]
From the June climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Over the last month, the ongoing El Niño in the east-central Pacific has intensified to moderate strength. There is now a 99% chance of El Niño for the June-August season, and chances stay […]
From the May climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing El Niño, a state of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, has recently intensified, though scientists aren’t sure how strong the event will become. The El Niño phenomenon is part of a natural cycle of […]
From the April climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing A weak El Niño continues in the central Pacific, and the chance that such conditions will persist has risen since last month’s forecast. It hovers around 80% through late summer, although it should be noted […]
From the March climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center and IRI issued an El Niño advisory, which indicates that El Niño conditions are present and expected to persist for the next […]
Study May Aid Seasonal Forecasting Climate scientists can spot El Niño and La Niña conditions developing months ahead of time, and they use this knowledge to make more accurate forecasts of droughts, flooding and even hurricane activity around the world. Now, a new study shows that El Niño and La Niña conditions can also help […]
The National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) increased the status of El Niño from watch to advisory, indicating that El Niño has officially arrived. The latest update, issued today by CPC and IRI, indicates a 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions persisting into the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. The update notes, however, that due to its weak expected […]
From the February climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (February – April) season is around 48%, down from 63% last month. These odds for the current season are down slightly from those issued by […]
From the January climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (January – March) season is around 63%, down from 76% last month. These odds for the current season are similar to those issued by the NOAA […]
From the December climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (December-February) season is over 80%, up slightly from last month. These odds for the current season are also higher than those issued by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center/IRI […]
From the November climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (November-January) season is about 75%, up slightly from last month. These odds for the November-January season are also higher than those issued by the NOAA Climate Prediction […]
By Adam Sobel This post originally appeared on Sobel’s blog. Out this month is his new book, Storm Surge: Hurricane Sandy, Our Changing Climate, and Extreme Weather of the Past and Future. I spent this past week in Darmstadt, Germany, for the Climate Symposium. This was a conference organized by EUMETSAT (one of the European space agencies) and the World Climate […]
From the October climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (October-December) season is between 65 and 70%, down slightly from last month. These odds for the October-December season are similar to those issued by […]
From the September climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the September-November season is 55%, which is the same as the forecast for the same period that was issued in August. The probability for El Niño development by the late […]
Un nuevo conjunto de webinars de entrenamiento desarrollados por el Instituto International de Investigaciones para el Clima y la Sociedad (IRI) discuten las principales características de El niño y La Niña y sus impactos alrededor del mundo. Los nuevos videos, disponibles en ingles y español, son lo más reciente de la serie Conceptos climáticos para […]
A new set of training webinars developed by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society tackles the ins and outs of El Niño and La Niña and their impacts around the world. The new videos, available in both English and Spanish, are the latest in the Climate Concepts for Development series produced by the […]
From the August climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the August-October season is 40%, down from 60% last month. The probability for El Niño development by the late months of 2014, […]
From the July climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing The latest model runs have reduced the chance of an El Niño developing by late summer in the Northern Hemisphere. The probability of an El Niño forming during the current July-September […]
As an ‘El Niño’ climate event heats up in the Pacific, the spotlight is on how we can prepare for the weather and climate shifts that may be in store. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a kind of pendulum in the global climate system, swinging back and forth on a 2-7 year cycle, bringing drought to some areas […]
By Alexa Jay and Jim Hansen El Niño’s impacts are far-reaching, influencing rainfall and temperature patterns across the globe. In agriculture, these impacts are felt primarily through the cycle’s effect on precipitation, particularly in the developing world where 80% of farmland is rainfed. But not all impacts are bad — while some areas may suffer […]
By Ben Orlove and Ángel Muñoz A new study examines the degree to which decision makers working in key sectors–agriculture, water and health–have been able to make successful use of forecasts of El Niño and La Niña. We find that these forecasts have indeed often been put into use, but only when two conditions have been […]
From the June climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing As the northern hemisphere summer gets underway, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shows signs of borderline neutral/weak El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific. However, conditions in the atmosphere remain ENSO-neutral. The Niño3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly […]
With a moderate El Niño expected to develop later this year, the global health community is closely monitoring seasonal climate forecasts. A new bulletin released by the IRI addresses ways in which health decision-makers can use climate information to reduce the potential for negative health impacts. IRI is a WHO/PAHO Collaborating Centre for Early Warning Systems for Malaria […]
By IRI Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston This post originally appeared on Climate.gov’s ENSO blog. Reproduced with permission. Many people are interested in knowing which ENSO category (La Niña, neutral or El Niño) is expected by the climate experts, just as they might want to know the weather forecast for tomorrow. They usually prefer a simple […]
By IRI Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston This post originally appeared on Climate.gov’s ENSO blog. Reproduced with permission. ENSO arises from changes across the tropical Pacific Ocean. So why does ENSO affect the climate over sizable portions of the globe, including some regions far removed from the tropical Pacific Ocean? Does the strength of ENSO matter […]
From the May climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are borderline neutral/El Niño. The Nino3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly was +0.5° C last week, which is the threshold for El Niño. Forecaster Tony Barnston […]
From the April climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently neutral, although the warming process has begun. The IRI’s April ENSO forecast puts the chances of El Niño conditions at more than 70% for early next […]
It’s nearly impossible to pinpoint a particular weather event as caused or made worse by climate change, but during any prolonged duration of exceptional weather, such questions always arise. We want to know if the weather we’re experiencing is actually unusual, if it’s part of larger climatic change and if it’s going to become more […]
From the March climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing The IRI’s March ENSO forecast puts the chances of El Niño conditions at 60% for early next fall, an increase from the 45% probability in IRI’s February forecast and the 52% probability from NOAA/IRI’s official […]
In the March issue of Nature Climate Change, IRI Director Lisa Goddard explains what may be behind the recent slowdown in global temperature growth in a piece titled “Heat Hide and Seek”. The Earth Institute’s Kim Martineau interviewed Goddard for some additional thoughts. We include the original Q&A here along with additional resources. Q: Is there a global warming […]
From February’s climate briefing, given by our Tony Barnston: The central and eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing borderline La Niña conditions, but many models are forecasting an El Niño to develop this (northern hemisphere) summer. Although scientists still don’t know the exact mechanism behind the Pacific’s transition from one state of the El Niño […]
This post is the first in a series of Q&As with scientists from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society who will be presenting their work at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco December 9 to 13. Many researchers focus on the ability to predict El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) […]
At IRI’s monthly climate briefing, talk often focuses on the role that El Niño or La Niña play in driving global climate. With the collapse of La Niñalast month, though, IRI’s forecasters now have to rely on different tools to offer forecasts for the coming year. That’s both good and bad news for forecasting skill. Climate […]
Imagine smoke and haze so thick it causes ships to crash into each other, shuts down airports and sends millions of people to the hospital with respiratory problems. This was the scene in Southeast Asia in 1997 and 1998, when land-clearing fires set by massive palm oil plantations and small scale farmers burned out of […]
In this Q+A, IRI staffers discuss some of the climate-related risks that could affect Haitians over the next year as they struggle to rebuild their country after a devastating earthquake in January. Currently, about 1.2 million Haitians are without proper shelter, and an additional 470,000 have been displaced from their homes, according to the U.N. […]
You must be logged in to post a comment.