Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-May, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures, while still slightly cool, are now within the range of ENSO-neutral. Atmospheric indicators are similarly consistent with the end of La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist through August-October 2021, […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-April, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures remained just within the weak La Niña range, and while some atmospheric indicators appeared weakly La Niña-like, others were consistent with ENSO neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts La Niña conditions are likely to dissipate by […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-March, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures remained below average and within the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts La Niña conditions are likely to dissipate by June 2021, with neutral […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-February, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures rose slightly but remained below average and within the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts La Niña conditions are likely to dissipate by April-June […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-January, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were well below average and into the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts La Niña conditions are likely to dissipate by May-June 2021, with […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-December, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were well below average and into the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts moderate or possibly strong La Niña conditions through 2020, approaching a […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-November, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were well below average and into the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts moderate or possibly strong La Niña conditions through 2020, approaching a […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-October, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were well below average and into the moderate strength La Niña range. All atmospheric parameters also indicated La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts moderate or possibly strong La Niña conditions through 2020 and most […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-September, the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures were below average and into the weak/moderate La Niña range. Most atmospheric indicators also suggested La Niña conditions. A new set of model runs predicts likely weak or moderate La Nina through fall and most of winter, […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-August, the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures were below average, near the threshold for weak La Niña conditions. Some atmospheric indicators showed neutral conditions while others leaned toward La Niña. A new set of model runs predicts that weak La Niña conditions are most likely […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. In mid-July, the sea-surface temperatures were slightly below average but in the ENSO-neutral range, and some atmospheric indicators showed neutral conditions while others leaned slightly toward La Niña. A new set of model runs predicts that cool-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are most likely […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. By mid-June, the sea surface temperatures had decreased to borderline La Niña levels, while some atmospheric indictors show La Niña-leaning conditions and a few show neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts cool-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are most likely from late […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-May, the sea surface temperatures had decreased to cool-neutral levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly neutral or slightly cool-leaning conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely from summer through winter, with a 51% probability for ENSO-neutral for […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-April, the sea surface temperatures were at warm-neutral to borderline El Niño levels, while atmospheric indictors showed mainly neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely through summer and fall, with an 81% probability for ENSO-neutral (19% […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-March, the sea-surface temperatures were at warm-neutral to borderline El Niño levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely through summer, with a 79% probability for ENSO-neutral (21% chance for El […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-February, the sea-surface temperatures were at warm-neutral levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly warm-neutral conditions. A new set of model runs predicts neutral conditions are most likely through summer, with a 61% probability for ENSO-neutral (39% chance for El Niño) for the February-April […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. As of mid-January, the sea-surface temperatures were at warm-neutral to borderline El Niño levels, while atmospheric indicators showed mainly warm-neutral conditions. A new set of model runs from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the Climate Prediction Center predicts neutral conditions as […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Ángel G. Muñoz provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Weston Anderson provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Weston Anderson provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Ángel Muñoz provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Nachiketa Acharya provides the briefing summary: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides his last overview of the briefing: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides his last overview of the briefing: What’s New See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation, and our update from March for much more on how this ENSO event has evolved. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New An abbreviated briefing update this month. See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation, and our update from March for much more on how this ENSO event has evolved. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New An abbreviated briefing update this month. See below for tweets summarizing the current El Niño situation, and last month’s update for much more on how this ENSO event has evolved. ENSO Forecasts To predict ENSO conditions, […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New The long-predicted El Niño event in the Pacific seems to finally have taken shape. While sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific cooled somewhat for a few weeks in the Niño3.4 region, other factors pointed towards El […]
This briefing update was written by Elisabeth Gawthrop and Jacquelyn Turner. Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have cooled slightly since this time last month. The SST conditions of the Niño3.4 region, shown in tweet image […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. What’s New Typically, as we near the end of a calendar year, there is relative certainty about the anticipated state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the coming months. At this time of year, the ENSO cycle is in a less chaotic state, and […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperatures have remained above average in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean that defines El Niño events (called Niño3.4 – see tweet below). The SSTs have been above the +0.50ºC anomaly threshold that helps […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperatures are warming up in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean that defines El Niño events (called Niño3.4 – see map below). Whether they stay that way will determine if an El Niño event […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New After months of neutral ENSO conditions and forecasts of an upcoming El Niño event, September has brought yet another month of the same. Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean region that defines El […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have bounced around some since last month’s briefing, but models continue to predict an El Niño event to develop. Weekly SST anomalies in the area of the […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have continued to warm since last month’s briefing. Weekly SST anomalies in the area of the Pacific that helps define El Niño and La Niña events, […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have continued to warm since last month’s briefing. Weekly SST anomalies in the area of the Pacific that helps define El Niño and La Niña events, called […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing: What’s New Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have continued to warm since last month’s briefing. Weekly SST anomalies in the area of the Pacific that helps define El Niño and La Niña events, called […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing What’s New Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have continued to warm since last month’s briefing, crossing from La Niña to neutral territory over the last few weeks. Weekly SST anomalies in the area of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. What’s New Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are trending warmer since last month’s briefing, but they remain in the La Niña realm. Weekly SST anomalies in the area of the Pacific that helps define El Niño and La Niña events, called […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing What’s New Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies have cooled slightly in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that helps define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region (see first map below). The […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing What’s New Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies have remained steady in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that helps define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region (see first map below). The […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing What’s New Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that helps define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region (see map below), have held at a similar […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing What’s New Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled further in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that helps define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region (see map below). The weekly SST […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing What’s New As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere and summer in the southern, seasonal forecasts in both hemispheres are showing some typical La Niña climate impacts as well as some surprises. Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño and La Niña. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing What’s New Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) have continued to cool in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, as well as to its […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing What’s New Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region (see first image below). The weekly SST anomalies in […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. What’s New Since last month’s briefing, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies have been similar to the previous month’s temperatures, ranging from +0.5ºC to +0.7ºC in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region (see first image below). While […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing What’s New Since last month’s briefing, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies have been similar to the previous month’s temperatures, ranging from +0.4ºC to +0.6ºC in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Since last month’s briefing, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies have increased slightly to +0.4ºC to +0.5ºC in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region (see first image below). These sea-surface temperatures […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Since last month’s briefing, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies have held steady at +0.2ºC to +0.3ºC in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region. While these sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) point to […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Since last month’s briefing, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies have ranged from -0.2ºC to +0.3ºC in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region. This is firmly in the range of neutral ENSO conditions, although other indicators of ENSO […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperatures have warmed in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region. Last week, the weekly anomaly for Nino3.4 was +0.1ºC — the first time […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperature anomalies in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, have warmed about a tenth of a degree. The past few weeks, these anomalies have been […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Since last month’s briefing, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, have remained within a tenth of a degree of the -0.5ºC threshold indicative of La […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Since last month’s briefing, sea-surface temperatures in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, have remained cooler-than-average. Since July, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies have been around or just below the -0.5ºC […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Sea-surface temperatures in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, are slightly cooler than those in the weeks leading up to last month’s briefing. Since July, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies have […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Sea-surface temperatures in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, remain similar to those from last month’s briefing. Since July, weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies (see first image below) have been […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Conditions in the area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, remain similar to those from last month’s briefing. While ocean temperatures are indicating a weak La Niña event could be imminent, atmospheric […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Neutral conditions remain in the central equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region. Recent weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies dipped just below the -0.5º threshold used to define La Niña, but those […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing The El Niño event that began in spring 2015 has come to an end. Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean that define El Niño and La Niña events, called the Nino3.4 region, have been in the neutral category […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing The El Niño event declared over a year ago is in its last weeks, with odds for at least a weak La Niña to develop by late summer are pegged at more than 50%. Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Over a year ago, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center and IRI jointly issued an El Niño advisory, indicating El Niño conditions had arrived and were expected to continue. That advisory is still in effect, but this month […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Due to sustained above-average sea surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean (see first image in gallery), the ongoing El Niño event continues to remain in the strong category. While the event is expected to quickly […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. The peak of the ongoing El Niño occurred in November 2015, but the event remains in “strong” category, and is likely to stay at moderate strength through April. The El Niño signal is still tipping the odds for certain climate impacts in some regions for the next several months (see seasonal […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing El Niño’s peak in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature came in late 2015, but the event is expected to stay strong, with climate impacts likely for the first few months of 2016. Recent wind patterns could lead to more Kelvin […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing As of mid-December, sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific were stable or down slightly compared to late November (see first image in first gallery). Tony Barnston, IRI’s chief climate forecaster, said the peak strength with respect to this metric of […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Is it 1997? Rapid strengthening of the ongoing El Niño event over the last several weeks has made headlines, some saying that its strength has eclipsed that of the 1997-98 “super” El Niño event. But Tony Barnston, IRI’s chief climate forecaster, cautions that […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing The El Niño that officially began last March and became a “strong” event in July continues to strengthen, with the event expected to peak in the next few months. Even with the weakening projected […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing An El Niño event is now in full swing, with probabilities of its continuance similar to those forecasted last month and remaining at close to 100% through the first few months of 2016 (bottom […]
Read our ENSO Essentials & Impacts pages for more about El Niño. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Although 100% is technically not an achievable number in the world of ENSO and climate prediction, this El Niño forecast all but reaches it for the next several months. The odds are similar to […]
Read our ENSO Essentials and ENSO Impacts pages to learn more about El Niño + check out the Storified summary of the #IRIforecast discussion on Twitter. Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Scientists usually cringe at the word certain, but the forecast for El Niño to continue through the July-September season […]
From the June climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Over the last month, the ongoing El Niño in the east-central Pacific has intensified to moderate strength. There is now a 99% chance of El Niño for the June-August season, and chances stay […]
From the May climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing El Niño, a state of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, has recently intensified, though scientists aren’t sure how strong the event will become. The El Niño phenomenon is part of a natural cycle of […]
From the April climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing A weak El Niño continues in the central Pacific, and the chance that such conditions will persist has risen since last month’s forecast. It hovers around 80% through late summer, although it should be noted […]
From the March climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center and IRI issued an El Niño advisory, which indicates that El Niño conditions are present and expected to persist for the next […]
From the February climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (February – April) season is around 48%, down from 63% last month. These odds for the current season are down slightly from those issued by […]
From the January climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (January – March) season is around 63%, down from 76% last month. These odds for the current season are similar to those issued by the NOAA […]
From the December climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (December-February) season is over 80%, up slightly from last month. These odds for the current season are also higher than those issued by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center/IRI […]
From the November climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (November-January) season is about 75%, up slightly from last month. These odds for the November-January season are also higher than those issued by the NOAA Climate Prediction […]
From the October climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (October-December) season is between 65 and 70%, down slightly from last month. These odds for the October-December season are similar to those issued by […]
From the September climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the September-November season is 55%, which is the same as the forecast for the same period that was issued in August. The probability for El Niño development by the late […]
From the August climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the August-October season is 40%, down from 60% last month. The probability for El Niño development by the late months of 2014, […]
From the July climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing The latest model runs have reduced the chance of an El Niño developing by late summer in the Northern Hemisphere. The probability of an El Niño forming during the current July-September […]
From the June climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing As the northern hemisphere summer gets underway, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shows signs of borderline neutral/weak El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific. However, conditions in the atmosphere remain ENSO-neutral. The Niño3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly […]
From the May climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are borderline neutral/El Niño. The Nino3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly was +0.5° C last week, which is the threshold for El Niño. Forecaster Tony Barnston […]
From the April climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently neutral, although the warming process has begun. The IRI’s April ENSO forecast puts the chances of El Niño conditions at more than 70% for early next […]
From the March climate briefing, given by IRI’s Chief Forecaster Tony Barnston: Tony Barnston provides an overview of the briefing Changes from last month’s briefing The IRI’s March ENSO forecast puts the chances of El Niño conditions at 60% for early next fall, an increase from the 45% probability in IRI’s February forecast and the 52% probability from NOAA/IRI’s official […]
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