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November 2003 IRI Australian Tropical Cyclone Activity Forecast

There is an enhanced probability (approximately 40%) that the number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region (105E to 165E) during the 2004 peak season (January to March) will be in the normal category, which is defined as between 5 and 8 named tropical cyclones. There is a 35% probability that the number of named tropical cyclones in this period will be in the above normal category (9 or more named storms). These probabilities are greater than the long-term average probability of 33%. This forecast is based on the IRI sea surface temperature (SST) forecast that reflects the neutral ENSO conditions, but has a region of above normal SST along the equator near the date line.

Background Information

The mean number of observed Autralian named tropical cyclones (1971 - 2002) in the peak season (January to March) is 7.1 with a standard deviation of 3.2. The near normal category is between 5 and 8 named tropical storms in the January-March peak season. The lowest number of tropical cyclones in the peak season during this historical period was 1 and the maximum was 13.

This outlook was produced by tracking Australian tropical cyclone-like systems in one of our operational atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), ECHAM4.5, forced with IRI's predicted sea surface temperatures . While low-resolution (approximately 2.8 degrees longitude and latitude) AGCMs are not adequate for forecasts of individual tropical cyclones, they can have significant skill in predicting the amount of tropical cyclone activity over specific basins, as is the case for the ECHAM4.5 over the Australian region. Model tropical cyclones are weaker and larger than observed, but have an identifiable signature with many observed tropical cyclone characteristics. The model skill is due to the variability of the tropical cyclone activity being mainly determined by large-scale variables that affect that activity, such as sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear, which can be predicted using AGCMs. The temporal distribution of these model tropical cyclones in the Australian region is similar to that of observed tropical cyclones in the region. The amount of tropical cyclone activity of both model and observations in the Australian region is strongly influenced by ENSO.

This outlook was produced by tracking Atlantic hurricane-like systems in one of our operational atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), ECHAM4.5, forced with IRI's predicted sea surface temperatures. While low-resolution (approximately 2.8 degrees longitude and latitude) AGCMs are not adequate for forecasts of individual hurricanes, they can have significant skill in predicting the amount of tropical cyclone activity over specific basins, as is the case for the ECHAM4.5 over the North Atlantic. Model tropical cyclones are weaker and larger than observed, but have an identifiable signature with many observed tropical cyclone characteristics. The model skill is due to the variability of the tropical cyclone activity being mainly determined by large-scale variables that affect that activity, such as sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear, which can be predicted using AGCMs. The temporal distribution of these model tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic is similar to that of observed tropical cyclones in the region. The amount tropical cyclone activity of both model and observations in the Atlantic is strongly influenced by ENSO.

The IRI November 2003 Australian tropical cyclone activity forecast is somewhat different from the Tropical Storm Risk November 2003 statistical forecasts of Australian tropical cyclones for the 2003/2004 season (July 2003 to June 2004). The Tropical Storm Risk forcast called for a below normal number of named tropical cyclones. It is important to notice that the definition of the Australian region is somewhat different in this forecast.