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Probabilistic Predictions of ENSO Indices Using Statistical Models
The forecast probabilities averaged across
7
models are presented in the graphs and tables below. The graphs show
the probabilities for "cold" (blue), "neutral" (green), and "hot" (red)
conditions, and the horizontal lines indicate the climatological
probabilities (25% each for "cold" and "hot", and 50% for "neutral").
The forecasts were produced using
October 2004
observed sea-surface temperatures, and with version
4.01
of the SPEP (Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Predictions) model.
| NINO1&2 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Nov 2004 |
0 |
7% |
5% |
3% |
5% |
79% |
| Dec 2004 |
1 |
10% |
4% |
2% |
24% |
61% |
| Jan 2005 |
2 |
26% |
9% |
7% |
2% |
56% |
| Feb 2005 |
3 |
26% |
17% |
16% |
6% |
35% |
| Mar 2005 |
4 |
96% |
2% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
| Apr 2005 |
5 |
80% |
5% |
12% |
2% |
1% |
| May 2005 |
6 |
77% |
5% |
2% |
15% |
1% |
| Jun 2005 |
7 |
55% |
15% |
18% |
4% |
8% |
| Jul 2005 |
8 |
47% |
19% |
12% |
10% |
12% |
| Aug 2005 |
9 |
39% |
15% |
26% |
9% |
10% |
| Sep 2005 |
10 |
60% |
15% |
11% |
11% |
4% |
| Oct 2005 |
11 |
54% |
13% |
16% |
7% |
11% |
| NINO3 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Nov 2004 |
0 |
27% |
13% |
3% |
36% |
22% |
| Dec 2004 |
1 |
27% |
3% |
9% |
33% |
28% |
| Jan 2005 |
2 |
23% |
2% |
8% |
46% |
21% |
| Feb 2005 |
3 |
25% |
11% |
23% |
25% |
17% |
| Mar 2005 |
4 |
18% |
29% |
15% |
21% |
18% |
| Apr 2005 |
5 |
14% |
21% |
21% |
20% |
24% |
| May 2005 |
6 |
32% |
15% |
16% |
16% |
21% |
| Jun 2005 |
7 |
10% |
17% |
22% |
40% |
11% |
| Jul 2005 |
8 |
16% |
24% |
22% |
24% |
14% |
| Aug 2005 |
9 |
7% |
15% |
32% |
26% |
20% |
| Sep 2005 |
10 |
10% |
20% |
21% |
25% |
24% |
| Oct 2005 |
11 |
16% |
20% |
26% |
22% |
15% |
| NINO3.4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Nov 2004 |
0 |
28% |
2% |
8% |
29% |
34% |
| Dec 2004 |
1 |
19% |
2% |
9% |
33% |
37% |
| Jan 2005 |
2 |
21% |
7% |
13% |
38% |
21% |
| Feb 2005 |
3 |
46% |
20% |
20% |
9% |
5% |
| Mar 2005 |
4 |
41% |
27% |
17% |
12% |
3% |
| Apr 2005 |
5 |
16% |
40% |
17% |
17% |
10% |
| May 2005 |
6 |
7% |
31% |
26% |
14% |
22% |
| Jun 2005 |
7 |
11% |
11% |
21% |
52% |
5% |
| Jul 2005 |
8 |
21% |
36% |
32% |
6% |
4% |
| Aug 2005 |
9 |
17% |
24% |
19% |
22% |
18% |
| Sep 2005 |
10 |
22% |
18% |
29% |
16% |
15% |
| Oct 2005 |
11 |
28% |
25% |
16% |
19% |
12% |
| NINO4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Nov 2004 |
0 |
22% |
5% |
5% |
16% |
53% |
| Dec 2004 |
1 |
27% |
2% |
3% |
11% |
57% |
| Jan 2005 |
2 |
42% |
8% |
12% |
35% |
4% |
| Feb 2005 |
3 |
33% |
11% |
7% |
7% |
43% |
| Mar 2005 |
4 |
34% |
14% |
14% |
13% |
25% |
| Apr 2005 |
5 |
56% |
10% |
8% |
13% |
13% |
| May 2005 |
6 |
67% |
20% |
7% |
3% |
2% |
| Jun 2005 |
7 |
62% |
16% |
9% |
9% |
5% |
| Jul 2005 |
8 |
3% |
15% |
34% |
29% |
19% |
| Aug 2005 |
9 |
10% |
47% |
21% |
11% |
11% |
| Sep 2005 |
10 |
10% |
27% |
15% |
25% |
24% |
| Oct 2005 |
11 |
21% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
15% |
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