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Probabilistic Predictions of ENSO Indices Using Statistical Models
The forecast probabilities averaged across
7
models are presented in the graphs and tables below. The graphs show
the probabilities for "cold" (blue), "neutral" (green), and "hot" (red)
conditions, and the horizontal lines indicate the climatological
probabilities (25% each for "cold" and "hot", and 50% for "neutral").
The forecasts were produced using
March 2005
observed sea-surface temperatures, and with version
4.02
of the SPEP (Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Predictions) model.
| NINO1&2 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
neutral |
hot |
| Apr 2005 |
0 |
43% |
53% |
3% |
| May 2005 |
1 |
98% |
2% |
0% |
| Jun 2005 |
2 |
95% |
4% |
0% |
| Jul 2005 |
3 |
46% |
17% |
37% |
| Aug 2005 |
4 |
69% |
31% |
0% |
| Sep 2005 |
5 |
70% |
24% |
6% |
| Oct 2005 |
6 |
45% |
45% |
9% |
| Nov 2005 |
7 |
11% |
75% |
13% |
| Dec 2005 |
8 |
72% |
26% |
2% |
| Jan 2006 |
9 |
50% |
46% |
4% |
| Feb 2006 |
10 |
34% |
57% |
9% |
| Mar 2006 |
11 |
37% |
52% |
11% |
| NINO1&2 |
| Season |
lead-time |
cold |
neutral |
hot |
| AMJ 2005 |
0 |
79% |
20% |
1% |
| MJJ 2005 |
1 |
80% |
8% |
12% |
| JJA 2005 |
2 |
70% |
17% |
12% |
| JAS 2005 |
3 |
62% |
24% |
15% |
| ASO 2005 |
4 |
61% |
33% |
5% |
| SON 2005 |
5 |
42% |
48% |
10% |
| OND 2005 |
6 |
43% |
49% |
8% |
| NDJ 2006 |
7 |
44% |
49% |
6% |
| DJF 2006 |
8 |
52% |
43% |
5% |
| JFM 2006 |
9 |
40% |
52% |
8% |
| NINO3 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
neutral |
hot |
| Apr 2005 |
0 |
19% |
56% |
25% |
| May 2005 |
1 |
56% |
22% |
23% |
| Jun 2005 |
2 |
28% |
17% |
55% |
| Jul 2005 |
3 |
29% |
40% |
31% |
| Aug 2005 |
4 |
23% |
30% |
48% |
| Sep 2005 |
5 |
45% |
31% |
24% |
| Oct 2005 |
6 |
16% |
37% |
48% |
| Nov 2005 |
7 |
19% |
42% |
39% |
| Dec 2005 |
8 |
37% |
40% |
23% |
| Jan 2006 |
9 |
8% |
27% |
65% |
| Feb 2006 |
10 |
9% |
28% |
63% |
| Mar 2006 |
11 |
19% |
40% |
42% |
| NINO3 |
| Season |
lead-time |
cold |
neutral |
hot |
| AMJ 2005 |
0 |
34% |
32% |
34% |
| MJJ 2005 |
1 |
38% |
26% |
36% |
| JJA 2005 |
2 |
27% |
29% |
45% |
| JAS 2005 |
3 |
32% |
33% |
34% |
| ASO 2005 |
4 |
28% |
32% |
40% |
| SON 2005 |
5 |
26% |
37% |
37% |
| OND 2005 |
6 |
24% |
40% |
37% |
| NDJ 2006 |
7 |
21% |
36% |
42% |
| DJF 2006 |
8 |
18% |
32% |
50% |
| JFM 2006 |
9 |
12% |
32% |
56% |
| NINO3.4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
neutral |
hot |
| Apr 2005 |
0 |
31% |
37% |
32% |
| May 2005 |
1 |
37% |
46% |
17% |
| Jun 2005 |
2 |
46% |
14% |
40% |
| Jul 2005 |
3 |
44% |
17% |
39% |
| Aug 2005 |
4 |
51% |
13% |
36% |
| Sep 2005 |
5 |
45% |
24% |
31% |
| Oct 2005 |
6 |
43% |
25% |
32% |
| Nov 2005 |
7 |
43% |
27% |
30% |
| Dec 2005 |
8 |
47% |
17% |
37% |
| Jan 2006 |
9 |
39% |
22% |
40% |
| Feb 2006 |
10 |
22% |
30% |
48% |
| Mar 2006 |
11 |
50% |
23% |
27% |
| NINO3.4 |
| Season |
lead-time |
cold |
neutral |
hot |
| AMJ 2005 |
0 |
38% |
32% |
30% |
| MJJ 2005 |
1 |
42% |
26% |
32% |
| JJA 2005 |
2 |
47% |
15% |
38% |
| JAS 2005 |
3 |
47% |
18% |
35% |
| ASO 2005 |
4 |
46% |
21% |
33% |
| SON 2005 |
5 |
44% |
25% |
31% |
| OND 2005 |
6 |
44% |
23% |
33% |
| NDJ 2006 |
7 |
43% |
22% |
35% |
| DJF 2006 |
8 |
36% |
23% |
41% |
| JFM 2006 |
9 |
37% |
25% |
38% |
| NINO4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
neutral |
hot |
| Apr 2005 |
0 |
44% |
8% |
48% |
| May 2005 |
1 |
37% |
19% |
44% |
| Jun 2005 |
2 |
47% |
48% |
5% |
| Jul 2005 |
3 |
51% |
48% |
2% |
| Aug 2005 |
4 |
78% |
21% |
1% |
| Sep 2005 |
5 |
82% |
17% |
1% |
| Oct 2005 |
6 |
68% |
30% |
2% |
| Nov 2005 |
7 |
43% |
49% |
8% |
| Dec 2005 |
8 |
41% |
56% |
3% |
| Jan 2006 |
9 |
54% |
43% |
3% |
| Feb 2006 |
10 |
56% |
25% |
19% |
| Mar 2006 |
11 |
46% |
41% |
13% |
| NINO4 |
| Season |
lead-time |
cold |
neutral |
hot |
| AMJ 2005 |
0 |
43% |
25% |
32% |
| MJJ 2005 |
1 |
45% |
38% |
17% |
| JJA 2005 |
2 |
58% |
39% |
3% |
| JAS 2005 |
3 |
70% |
29% |
1% |
| ASO 2005 |
4 |
76% |
23% |
1% |
| SON 2005 |
5 |
64% |
32% |
4% |
| OND 2005 |
6 |
51% |
45% |
4% |
| NDJ 2006 |
7 |
46% |
49% |
5% |
| DJF 2006 |
8 |
50% |
41% |
8% |
| JFM 2006 |
9 |
52% |
36% |
12% |
|
