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Probabilistic Predictions of ENSO Indices Using Statistical Models
The forecast probabilities averaged across
7
models are presented in the graphs and tables below. The graphs show
the probabilities for "cold" (blue), "neutral" (green), and "hot" (red)
conditions, and the horizontal lines indicate the climatological
probabilities (25% each for "cold" and "hot", and 50% for "neutral").
The forecasts were produced using
March 2004
observed sea-surface temperatures, and with version
4.01
of the SPEP (Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Predictions) model.
| NINO1&2 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Apr 2004 |
0 |
38% |
28% |
11% |
10% |
13% |
| May 2004 |
1 |
40% |
4% |
2% |
5% |
48% |
| Jun 2004 |
2 |
31% |
7% |
17% |
25% |
21% |
| Jul 2004 |
3 |
31% |
9% |
6% |
7% |
47% |
| Aug 2004 |
4 |
30% |
13% |
13% |
18% |
26% |
| Sep 2004 |
5 |
66% |
18% |
10% |
5% |
1% |
| Oct 2004 |
6 |
30% |
9% |
21% |
23% |
17% |
| Nov 2004 |
7 |
10% |
12% |
30% |
21% |
26% |
| Dec 2004 |
8 |
30% |
17% |
17% |
20% |
16% |
| Jan 2005 |
9 |
37% |
7% |
6% |
23% |
26% |
| Feb 2005 |
10 |
40% |
37% |
11% |
4% |
8% |
| Mar 2005 |
11 |
45% |
6% |
20% |
23% |
5% |
| NINO3 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Apr 2004 |
0 |
7% |
9% |
11% |
23% |
49% |
| May 2004 |
1 |
23% |
12% |
15% |
25% |
25% |
| Jun 2004 |
2 |
3% |
4% |
27% |
17% |
49% |
| Jul 2004 |
3 |
10% |
2% |
8% |
25% |
55% |
| Aug 2004 |
4 |
12% |
21% |
7% |
13% |
47% |
| Sep 2004 |
5 |
20% |
18% |
17% |
13% |
31% |
| Oct 2004 |
6 |
3% |
13% |
12% |
20% |
51% |
| Nov 2004 |
7 |
6% |
14% |
16% |
20% |
43% |
| Dec 2004 |
8 |
7% |
18% |
16% |
20% |
39% |
| Jan 2005 |
9 |
4% |
8% |
15% |
24% |
49% |
| Feb 2005 |
10 |
5% |
13% |
10% |
17% |
54% |
| Mar 2005 |
11 |
17% |
21% |
17% |
18% |
28% |
| NINO3.4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Apr 2004 |
0 |
21% |
20% |
33% |
15% |
10% |
| May 2004 |
1 |
26% |
19% |
19% |
9% |
27% |
| Jun 2004 |
2 |
35% |
13% |
7% |
11% |
35% |
| Jul 2004 |
3 |
43% |
11% |
5% |
4% |
37% |
| Aug 2004 |
4 |
45% |
10% |
8% |
8% |
29% |
| Sep 2004 |
5 |
44% |
17% |
8% |
12% |
19% |
| Oct 2004 |
6 |
44% |
17% |
7% |
6% |
26% |
| Nov 2004 |
7 |
49% |
4% |
6% |
8% |
33% |
| Dec 2004 |
8 |
46% |
5% |
8% |
8% |
33% |
| Jan 2005 |
9 |
47% |
5% |
9% |
4% |
35% |
| Feb 2005 |
10 |
33% |
18% |
8% |
6% |
35% |
| Mar 2005 |
11 |
34% |
16% |
8% |
8% |
33% |
| NINO4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Apr 2004 |
0 |
47% |
17% |
19% |
8% |
8% |
| May 2004 |
1 |
62% |
23% |
10% |
4% |
1% |
| Jun 2004 |
2 |
39% |
47% |
9% |
3% |
3% |
| Jul 2004 |
3 |
49% |
38% |
10% |
2% |
1% |
| Aug 2004 |
4 |
64% |
25% |
5% |
5% |
1% |
| Sep 2004 |
5 |
72% |
11% |
9% |
6% |
1% |
| Oct 2004 |
6 |
35% |
55% |
7% |
3% |
1% |
| Nov 2004 |
7 |
47% |
38% |
10% |
3% |
2% |
| Dec 2004 |
8 |
39% |
24% |
26% |
9% |
2% |
| Jan 2005 |
9 |
40% |
30% |
9% |
18% |
4% |
| Feb 2005 |
10 |
41% |
35% |
9% |
4% |
12% |
| Mar 2005 |
11 |
37% |
35% |
10% |
4% |
13% |
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