Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts
Probabilistic Forecasts of ENSO Indices Using Statistical Models
Simon J. Mason
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
The forecasts below were produced using
September 2002
observed sea-surface temperatures, and with version
3.04
of the SPEF (Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts) model.
Previous forecasts are available online.
| NINO1&2 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Oct 2002 |
0 |
0% |
6% |
18% |
71% |
5% |
| Nov 2002 |
1 |
7% |
15% |
31% |
38% |
10% |
| Dec 2002 |
2 |
3% |
17% |
24% |
37% |
19% |
| Jan 2003 |
3 |
19% |
13% |
19% |
28% |
22% |
| Feb 2003 |
4 |
20% |
13% |
24% |
21% |
22% |
| Mar 2003 |
5 |
17% |
17% |
24% |
21% |
22% |
| Apr 2003 |
6 |
21% |
19% |
22% |
20% |
18% |
| May 2003 |
7 |
20% |
17% |
22% |
21% |
20% |
| Jun 2003 |
8 |
24% |
15% |
20% |
25% |
17% |
| Jul 2003 |
9 |
22% |
18% |
20% |
22% |
18% |
| Aug 2003 |
10 |
23% |
20% |
17% |
21% |
19% |
| Sep 2003 |
11 |
20% |
19% |
21% |
21% |
19% |
| NINO3 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Oct 2002 |
0 |
0% |
6% |
9% |
56% |
29% |
| Nov 2002 |
1 |
0% |
4% |
13% |
65% |
18% |
| Dec 2002 |
2 |
1% |
5% |
23% |
62% |
9% |
| Jan 2003 |
3 |
2% |
8% |
12% |
40% |
37% |
| Feb 2003 |
4 |
2% |
5% |
16% |
42% |
35% |
| Mar 2003 |
5 |
8% |
13% |
19% |
29% |
32% |
| Apr 2003 |
6 |
17% |
17% |
22% |
19% |
24% |
| May 2003 |
7 |
17% |
20% |
18% |
19% |
26% |
| Jun 2003 |
8 |
18% |
19% |
22% |
20% |
21% |
| Jul 2003 |
9 |
19% |
18% |
22% |
21% |
21% |
| Aug 2003 |
10 |
20% |
17% |
23% |
20% |
21% |
| Sep 2003 |
11 |
19% |
22% |
19% |
21% |
19% |
| NINO3.4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Oct 2002 |
0 |
0% |
2% |
12% |
30% |
56% |
| Nov 2002 |
1 |
0% |
6% |
23% |
64% |
6% |
| Dec 2002 |
2 |
0% |
8% |
38% |
50% |
3% |
| Jan 2003 |
3 |
2% |
8% |
27% |
52% |
11% |
| Feb 2003 |
4 |
2% |
7% |
21% |
35% |
35% |
| Mar 2003 |
5 |
5% |
20% |
35% |
25% |
15% |
| Apr 2003 |
6 |
12% |
21% |
21% |
25% |
21% |
| May 2003 |
7 |
20% |
16% |
23% |
20% |
21% |
| Jun 2003 |
8 |
16% |
20% |
26% |
18% |
20% |
| Jul 2003 |
9 |
13% |
24% |
25% |
19% |
20% |
| Aug 2003 |
10 |
35% |
12% |
23% |
12% |
17% |
| Sep 2003 |
11 |
33% |
13% |
24% |
15% |
15% |
| NINO4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Oct 2002 |
0 |
0% |
3% |
25% |
25% |
48% |
| Nov 2002 |
1 |
0% |
6% |
18% |
28% |
47% |
| Dec 2002 |
2 |
0% |
5% |
19% |
28% |
48% |
| Jan 2003 |
3 |
4% |
7% |
20% |
42% |
28% |
| Feb 2003 |
4 |
8% |
10% |
18% |
37% |
26% |
| Mar 2003 |
5 |
4% |
16% |
31% |
24% |
24% |
| Apr 2003 |
6 |
4% |
20% |
23% |
26% |
26% |
| May 2003 |
7 |
5% |
24% |
24% |
23% |
25% |
| Jun 2003 |
8 |
8% |
20% |
27% |
23% |
22% |
| Jul 2003 |
9 |
16% |
18% |
25% |
20% |
21% |
| Aug 2003 |
10 |
14% |
20% |
23% |
22% |
21% |
| Sep 2003 |
11 |
15% |
21% |
21% |
19% |
24% |