Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts
Probabilistic Forecasts of ENSO Indices Using Statistical Models
Simon J. Mason
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
The forecasts below were produced using
October 2002
observed sea-surface temperatures, and with version
3.04
of the SPEF (Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts) model.
Previous forecasts are available online.
| NINO1&2 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Nov 2002 |
0 |
0% |
0% |
9% |
53% |
37% |
| Dec 2002 |
1 |
0% |
2% |
9% |
37% |
51% |
| Jan 2003 |
2 |
5% |
10% |
12% |
35% |
37% |
| Feb 2003 |
3 |
15% |
12% |
24% |
21% |
28% |
| Mar 2003 |
4 |
7% |
8% |
26% |
29% |
30% |
| Apr 2003 |
5 |
14% |
21% |
15% |
24% |
26% |
| May 2003 |
6 |
11% |
19% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
| Jun 2003 |
7 |
18% |
18% |
21% |
23% |
20% |
| Jul 2003 |
8 |
16% |
21% |
17% |
22% |
24% |
| Aug 2003 |
9 |
12% |
19% |
24% |
23% |
22% |
| Sep 2003 |
10 |
17% |
15% |
21% |
26% |
21% |
| Oct 2003 |
11 |
16% |
16% |
20% |
23% |
25% |
| NINO3 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Nov 2002 |
0 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
27% |
73% |
| Dec 2002 |
1 |
0% |
0% |
2% |
63% |
34% |
| Jan 2003 |
2 |
0% |
0% |
3% |
48% |
49% |
| Feb 2003 |
3 |
0% |
2% |
7% |
38% |
52% |
| Mar 2003 |
4 |
1% |
3% |
14% |
34% |
48% |
| Apr 2003 |
5 |
9% |
9% |
24% |
23% |
35% |
| May 2003 |
6 |
17% |
17% |
19% |
21% |
26% |
| Jun 2003 |
7 |
18% |
21% |
22% |
21% |
18% |
| Jul 2003 |
8 |
19% |
20% |
20% |
21% |
19% |
| Aug 2003 |
9 |
24% |
21% |
23% |
13% |
19% |
| Sep 2003 |
10 |
19% |
16% |
25% |
21% |
19% |
| Oct 2003 |
11 |
22% |
20% |
20% |
22% |
15% |
| NINO3.4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Nov 2002 |
0 |
0% |
0% |
2% |
39% |
59% |
| Dec 2002 |
1 |
0% |
0% |
5% |
35% |
60% |
| Jan 2003 |
2 |
0% |
0% |
2% |
33% |
65% |
| Feb 2003 |
3 |
0% |
0% |
3% |
35% |
62% |
| Mar 2003 |
4 |
0% |
2% |
9% |
28% |
61% |
| Apr 2003 |
5 |
10% |
14% |
22% |
26% |
27% |
| May 2003 |
6 |
15% |
11% |
22% |
25% |
27% |
| Jun 2003 |
7 |
24% |
26% |
18% |
15% |
16% |
| Jul 2003 |
8 |
28% |
20% |
20% |
18% |
14% |
| Aug 2003 |
9 |
28% |
22% |
24% |
10% |
16% |
| Sep 2003 |
10 |
44% |
11% |
15% |
15% |
15% |
| Oct 2003 |
11 |
30% |
19% |
20% |
17% |
14% |
| NINO4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Nov 2002 |
0 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
22% |
78% |
| Dec 2002 |
1 |
0% |
0% |
1% |
24% |
75% |
| Jan 2003 |
2 |
0% |
1% |
8% |
22% |
70% |
| Feb 2003 |
3 |
0% |
1% |
5% |
25% |
69% |
| Mar 2003 |
4 |
1% |
2% |
13% |
38% |
46% |
| Apr 2003 |
5 |
1% |
9% |
11% |
28% |
52% |
| May 2003 |
6 |
1% |
14% |
17% |
29% |
39% |
| Jun 2003 |
7 |
14% |
18% |
26% |
21% |
22% |
| Jul 2003 |
8 |
18% |
25% |
21% |
16% |
20% |
| Aug 2003 |
9 |
16% |
23% |
23% |
20% |
19% |
| Sep 2003 |
10 |
22% |
26% |
22% |
17% |
12% |
| Oct 2003 |
11 |
25% |
25% |
21% |
18% |
10% |