Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts
Probabilistic Forecasts of ENSO Indices Using Statistical Models
Simon J. Mason
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
The forecasts below were produced using
November 2002
observed sea-surface temperatures, and with version
3.04
of the SPEF (Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts) model.
Previous forecasts are available online.
| NINO1&2 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Dec 2002 |
0 |
0% |
0% |
2% |
33% |
65% |
| Jan 2003 |
1 |
2% |
4% |
11% |
29% |
54% |
| Feb 2003 |
2 |
14% |
3% |
21% |
23% |
39% |
| Mar 2003 |
3 |
14% |
17% |
28% |
17% |
23% |
| Apr 2003 |
4 |
21% |
22% |
18% |
21% |
18% |
| May 2003 |
5 |
23% |
26% |
23% |
11% |
17% |
| Jun 2003 |
6 |
34% |
26% |
22% |
6% |
13% |
| Jul 2003 |
7 |
49% |
19% |
13% |
7% |
12% |
| Aug 2003 |
8 |
19% |
31% |
27% |
8% |
14% |
| Sep 2003 |
9 |
40% |
34% |
5% |
11% |
10% |
| Oct 2003 |
10 |
48% |
11% |
21% |
6% |
13% |
| Nov 2003 |
11 |
53% |
15% |
11% |
6% |
15% |
| NINO3 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Dec 2002 |
0 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
25% |
75% |
| Jan 2003 |
1 |
0% |
0% |
1% |
28% |
70% |
| Feb 2003 |
2 |
1% |
1% |
5% |
23% |
70% |
| Mar 2003 |
3 |
1% |
5% |
10% |
31% |
53% |
| Apr 2003 |
4 |
12% |
11% |
21% |
22% |
34% |
| May 2003 |
5 |
24% |
25% |
32% |
6% |
13% |
| Jun 2003 |
6 |
25% |
28% |
25% |
12% |
11% |
| Jul 2003 |
7 |
23% |
24% |
23% |
14% |
15% |
| Aug 2003 |
8 |
38% |
16% |
26% |
9% |
11% |
| Sep 2003 |
9 |
39% |
18% |
24% |
9% |
9% |
| Oct 2003 |
10 |
39% |
13% |
30% |
6% |
13% |
| Nov 2003 |
11 |
38% |
22% |
23% |
8% |
9% |
| NINO3.4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Dec 2002 |
0 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
25% |
75% |
| Jan 2003 |
1 |
0% |
0% |
6% |
34% |
60% |
| Feb 2003 |
2 |
0% |
0% |
4% |
27% |
69% |
| Mar 2003 |
3 |
0% |
5% |
14% |
25% |
56% |
| Apr 2003 |
4 |
10% |
15% |
20% |
27% |
27% |
| May 2003 |
5 |
13% |
11% |
21% |
21% |
34% |
| Jun 2003 |
6 |
30% |
29% |
16% |
12% |
14% |
| Jul 2003 |
7 |
33% |
16% |
20% |
18% |
13% |
| Aug 2003 |
8 |
38% |
24% |
15% |
11% |
11% |
| Sep 2003 |
9 |
33% |
23% |
24% |
7% |
13% |
| Oct 2003 |
10 |
38% |
26% |
18% |
7% |
11% |
| Nov 2003 |
11 |
44% |
22% |
13% |
11% |
11% |
| NINO4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Dec 2002 |
0 |
0% |
0% |
1% |
21% |
78% |
| Jan 2003 |
1 |
0% |
2% |
19% |
16% |
63% |
| Feb 2003 |
2 |
1% |
3% |
37% |
35% |
23% |
| Mar 2003 |
3 |
2% |
8% |
21% |
31% |
38% |
| Apr 2003 |
4 |
1% |
12% |
12% |
33% |
43% |
| May 2003 |
5 |
3% |
25% |
27% |
17% |
28% |
| Jun 2003 |
6 |
11% |
14% |
26% |
22% |
27% |
| Jul 2003 |
7 |
24% |
28% |
18% |
15% |
15% |
| Aug 2003 |
8 |
26% |
41% |
8% |
15% |
10% |
| Sep 2003 |
9 |
25% |
39% |
14% |
13% |
8% |
| Oct 2003 |
10 |
33% |
25% |
26% |
5% |
12% |
| Nov 2003 |
11 |
36% |
28% |
17% |
6% |
12% |