Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts
Probabilistic Forecasts of ENSO Indices Using Statistical Models
Simon J. Mason
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
The forecasts below were produced using
May 2002
observed sea-surface temperatures, and with version
3.04
of the SPEF (Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts) model.
Previous forecasts are available online.
| NINO1&2 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Jun 2002 |
0 |
1% |
1% |
11% |
82% |
6% |
| Jul 2002 |
1 |
3% |
13% |
20% |
55% |
9% |
| Aug 2002 |
2 |
4% |
5% |
33% |
51% |
8% |
| Sep 2002 |
3 |
6% |
10% |
32% |
48% |
5% |
| Oct 2002 |
4 |
7% |
11% |
25% |
43% |
14% |
| Nov 2002 |
5 |
8% |
13% |
19% |
36% |
24% |
| Dec 2002 |
6 |
6% |
9% |
20% |
35% |
29% |
| Jan 2003 |
7 |
12% |
13% |
15% |
28% |
31% |
| Feb 2003 |
8 |
9% |
11% |
36% |
14% |
30% |
| Mar 2003 |
9 |
10% |
19% |
13% |
36% |
22% |
| Apr 2003 |
10 |
17% |
7% |
20% |
32% |
24% |
| May 2003 |
11 |
23% |
14% |
19% |
21% |
23% |
| NINO3 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Jun 2002 |
0 |
1% |
7% |
26% |
45% |
22% |
| Jul 2002 |
1 |
2% |
11% |
24% |
37% |
26% |
| Aug 2002 |
2 |
5% |
9% |
26% |
35% |
25% |
| Sep 2002 |
3 |
3% |
9% |
24% |
36% |
28% |
| Oct 2002 |
4 |
5% |
10% |
26% |
34% |
25% |
| Nov 2002 |
5 |
4% |
7% |
24% |
34% |
31% |
| Dec 2002 |
6 |
4% |
5% |
30% |
32% |
30% |
| Jan 2003 |
7 |
7% |
11% |
21% |
28% |
33% |
| Feb 2003 |
8 |
10% |
11% |
18% |
28% |
33% |
| Mar 2003 |
9 |
12% |
15% |
18% |
25% |
30% |
| Apr 2003 |
10 |
16% |
15% |
31% |
17% |
20% |
| May 2003 |
11 |
20% |
23% |
21% |
22% |
15% |
| NINO3.4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Jun 2002 |
0 |
0% |
10% |
18% |
48% |
24% |
| Jul 2002 |
1 |
3% |
10% |
22% |
32% |
34% |
| Aug 2002 |
2 |
3% |
6% |
17% |
37% |
37% |
| Sep 2002 |
3 |
2% |
12% |
20% |
38% |
28% |
| Oct 2002 |
4 |
3% |
6% |
29% |
31% |
32% |
| Nov 2002 |
5 |
3% |
10% |
21% |
37% |
29% |
| Dec 2002 |
6 |
2% |
9% |
20% |
28% |
40% |
| Jan 2003 |
7 |
5% |
7% |
29% |
25% |
34% |
| Feb 2003 |
8 |
8% |
8% |
25% |
25% |
34% |
| Mar 2003 |
9 |
5% |
11% |
29% |
22% |
34% |
| Apr 2003 |
10 |
9% |
16% |
24% |
20% |
31% |
| May 2003 |
11 |
14% |
14% |
23% |
21% |
27% |
| NINO4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Jun 2002 |
0 |
0% |
2% |
17% |
28% |
53% |
| Jul 2002 |
1 |
0% |
0% |
7% |
40% |
53% |
| Aug 2002 |
2 |
0% |
2% |
7% |
41% |
50% |
| Sep 2002 |
3 |
0% |
2% |
10% |
42% |
46% |
| Oct 2002 |
4 |
0% |
2% |
23% |
35% |
40% |
| Nov 2002 |
5 |
0% |
2% |
17% |
42% |
39% |
| Dec 2002 |
6 |
0% |
3% |
21% |
36% |
39% |
| Jan 2003 |
7 |
1% |
8% |
18% |
27% |
46% |
| Feb 2003 |
8 |
1% |
6% |
21% |
30% |
43% |
| Mar 2003 |
9 |
4% |
14% |
20% |
32% |
30% |
| Apr 2003 |
10 |
2% |
16% |
19% |
27% |
36% |
| May 2003 |
11 |
2% |
21% |
18% |
24% |
35% |