Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts
Probabilistic Forecasts of ENSO Indices Using Statistical Models
Simon J. Mason
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
The forecasts below were produced using
March 2002
observed sea-surface temperatures, and with version
3.04
of the SPEF (Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts) model.
Previous forecasts are available online.
| NINO1&2 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Apr 2002 |
0 |
0% |
2% |
4% |
39% |
54% |
| May 2002 |
1 |
1% |
1% |
9% |
35% |
54% |
| Jun 2002 |
2 |
1% |
7% |
6% |
46% |
40% |
| Jul 2002 |
3 |
4% |
12% |
8% |
46% |
30% |
| Aug 2002 |
4 |
11% |
21% |
20% |
36% |
12% |
| Sep 2002 |
5 |
16% |
18% |
22% |
34% |
10% |
| Oct 2002 |
6 |
19% |
20% |
15% |
33% |
12% |
| Nov 2002 |
7 |
14% |
12% |
25% |
25% |
24% |
| Dec 2002 |
8 |
20% |
44% |
14% |
11% |
11% |
| Jan 2003 |
9 |
35% |
34% |
14% |
5% |
11% |
| Feb 2003 |
10 |
22% |
21% |
19% |
16% |
22% |
| Mar 2003 |
11 |
20% |
17% |
20% |
22% |
21% |
| NINO3 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Apr 2002 |
0 |
2% |
9% |
15% |
25% |
49% |
| May 2002 |
1 |
5% |
12% |
18% |
26% |
39% |
| Jun 2002 |
2 |
23% |
19% |
19% |
23% |
16% |
| Jul 2002 |
3 |
31% |
26% |
17% |
18% |
8% |
| Aug 2002 |
4 |
26% |
25% |
20% |
18% |
11% |
| Sep 2002 |
5 |
21% |
33% |
15% |
15% |
16% |
| Oct 2002 |
6 |
24% |
24% |
23% |
15% |
14% |
| Nov 2002 |
7 |
22% |
25% |
19% |
21% |
14% |
| Dec 2002 |
8 |
23% |
24% |
19% |
15% |
19% |
| Jan 2003 |
9 |
22% |
22% |
23% |
17% |
15% |
| Feb 2003 |
10 |
24% |
28% |
17% |
13% |
18% |
| Mar 2003 |
11 |
22% |
24% |
16% |
17% |
22% |
| NINO3.4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Apr 2002 |
0 |
0% |
16% |
23% |
28% |
34% |
| May 2002 |
1 |
5% |
14% |
27% |
27% |
27% |
| Jun 2002 |
2 |
44% |
25% |
16% |
13% |
3% |
| Jul 2002 |
3 |
38% |
29% |
13% |
14% |
6% |
| Aug 2002 |
4 |
46% |
19% |
15% |
10% |
10% |
| Sep 2002 |
5 |
46% |
21% |
13% |
11% |
9% |
| Oct 2002 |
6 |
43% |
19% |
17% |
13% |
9% |
| Nov 2002 |
7 |
43% |
21% |
14% |
16% |
6% |
| Dec 2002 |
8 |
43% |
21% |
16% |
13% |
7% |
| Jan 2003 |
9 |
36% |
25% |
15% |
15% |
9% |
| Feb 2003 |
10 |
32% |
25% |
17% |
16% |
10% |
| Mar 2003 |
11 |
33% |
21% |
19% |
17% |
10% |
| NINO4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Apr 2002 |
0 |
0% |
7% |
13% |
35% |
45% |
| May 2002 |
1 |
0% |
9% |
15% |
33% |
43% |
| Jun 2002 |
2 |
4% |
13% |
28% |
23% |
31% |
| Jul 2002 |
3 |
7% |
15% |
19% |
33% |
26% |
| Aug 2002 |
4 |
17% |
11% |
22% |
29% |
21% |
| Sep 2002 |
5 |
14% |
12% |
24% |
30% |
20% |
| Oct 2002 |
6 |
37% |
18% |
16% |
18% |
12% |
| Nov 2002 |
7 |
39% |
23% |
17% |
13% |
8% |
| Dec 2002 |
8 |
39% |
23% |
18% |
12% |
7% |
| Jan 2003 |
9 |
36% |
18% |
25% |
13% |
9% |
| Feb 2003 |
10 |
28% |
24% |
17% |
17% |
13% |
| Mar 2003 |
11 |
20% |
25% |
18% |
23% |
14% |