Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts
Probabilistic Forecasts of ENSO Indices Using Statistical Models
Simon J. Mason
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
The forecasts below were produced using
June 2002
observed sea-surface temperatures, and with version
3.04
of the SPEF (Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts) model.
Previous forecasts are available online.
| NINO1&2 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Jul 2002 |
0 |
3% |
10% |
44% |
42% |
1% |
| Aug 2002 |
1 |
3% |
14% |
41% |
40% |
2% |
| Sep 2002 |
2 |
5% |
13% |
39% |
41% |
3% |
| Oct 2002 |
3 |
6% |
11% |
32% |
49% |
2% |
| Nov 2002 |
4 |
10% |
11% |
27% |
38% |
13% |
| Dec 2002 |
5 |
7% |
11% |
22% |
37% |
23% |
| Jan 2003 |
6 |
14% |
14% |
16% |
30% |
25% |
| Feb 2003 |
7 |
15% |
16% |
24% |
17% |
28% |
| Mar 2003 |
8 |
15% |
15% |
22% |
26% |
22% |
| Apr 2003 |
9 |
17% |
14% |
23% |
25% |
21% |
| May 2003 |
10 |
16% |
9% |
24% |
25% |
25% |
| Jun 2003 |
11 |
16% |
9% |
16% |
31% |
29% |
| NINO3 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Jul 2002 |
0 |
2% |
16% |
21% |
29% |
32% |
| Aug 2002 |
1 |
4% |
8% |
19% |
37% |
31% |
| Sep 2002 |
2 |
5% |
13% |
15% |
40% |
28% |
| Oct 2002 |
3 |
6% |
17% |
19% |
31% |
27% |
| Nov 2002 |
4 |
9% |
10% |
34% |
37% |
10% |
| Dec 2002 |
5 |
7% |
7% |
33% |
29% |
25% |
| Jan 2003 |
6 |
18% |
22% |
22% |
20% |
18% |
| Feb 2003 |
7 |
10% |
12% |
20% |
24% |
34% |
| Mar 2003 |
8 |
16% |
16% |
16% |
18% |
34% |
| Apr 2003 |
9 |
21% |
18% |
16% |
17% |
28% |
| May 2003 |
10 |
17% |
19% |
24% |
22% |
18% |
| Jun 2003 |
11 |
21% |
24% |
20% |
20% |
16% |
| NINO3.4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Jul 2002 |
0 |
4% |
16% |
18% |
28% |
33% |
| Aug 2002 |
1 |
6% |
10% |
25% |
42% |
18% |
| Sep 2002 |
2 |
4% |
11% |
18% |
36% |
31% |
| Oct 2002 |
3 |
6% |
15% |
17% |
33% |
30% |
| Nov 2002 |
4 |
1% |
15% |
29% |
42% |
12% |
| Dec 2002 |
5 |
5% |
17% |
24% |
39% |
16% |
| Jan 2003 |
6 |
8% |
11% |
31% |
32% |
18% |
| Feb 2003 |
7 |
10% |
13% |
29% |
31% |
17% |
| Mar 2003 |
8 |
7% |
19% |
30% |
28% |
17% |
| Apr 2003 |
9 |
14% |
19% |
25% |
25% |
17% |
| May 2003 |
10 |
18% |
19% |
26% |
24% |
13% |
| Jun 2003 |
11 |
23% |
24% |
19% |
17% |
16% |
| NINO4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Jul 2002 |
0 |
0% |
4% |
21% |
26% |
49% |
| Aug 2002 |
1 |
0% |
4% |
16% |
35% |
45% |
| Sep 2002 |
2 |
0% |
6% |
18% |
39% |
37% |
| Oct 2002 |
3 |
0% |
8% |
30% |
42% |
21% |
| Nov 2002 |
4 |
0% |
6% |
14% |
47% |
33% |
| Dec 2002 |
5 |
0% |
7% |
22% |
31% |
40% |
| Jan 2003 |
6 |
2% |
19% |
30% |
28% |
21% |
| Feb 2003 |
7 |
2% |
15% |
37% |
27% |
18% |
| Mar 2003 |
8 |
7% |
18% |
27% |
27% |
21% |
| Apr 2003 |
9 |
6% |
24% |
27% |
27% |
17% |
| May 2003 |
10 |
9% |
26% |
24% |
21% |
20% |
| Jun 2003 |
11 |
15% |
20% |
28% |
20% |
18% |