Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts
Probabilistic Forecasts of ENSO Indices Using Statistical Models
Simon J. Mason
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
The forecasts below were produced using
July 2002
observed sea-surface temperatures, and with version
3.04
of the SPEF (Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts) model.
Previous forecasts are available online.
| NINO1&2 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Aug 2002 |
0 |
4% |
24% |
36% |
35% |
1% |
| Sep 2002 |
1 |
6% |
16% |
39% |
39% |
1% |
| Oct 2002 |
2 |
5% |
10% |
32% |
51% |
2% |
| Nov 2002 |
3 |
11% |
9% |
34% |
36% |
11% |
| Dec 2002 |
4 |
4% |
13% |
19% |
39% |
25% |
| Jan 2003 |
5 |
10% |
14% |
17% |
29% |
29% |
| Feb 2003 |
6 |
13% |
12% |
24% |
20% |
30% |
| Mar 2003 |
7 |
15% |
19% |
21% |
20% |
25% |
| Apr 2003 |
8 |
19% |
18% |
21% |
21% |
20% |
| May 2003 |
9 |
16% |
15% |
23% |
23% |
23% |
| Jun 2003 |
10 |
15% |
16% |
22% |
25% |
22% |
| Jul 2003 |
11 |
18% |
17% |
20% |
23% |
21% |
| NINO3 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Aug 2002 |
0 |
3% |
13% |
21% |
49% |
14% |
| Sep 2002 |
1 |
8% |
16% |
12% |
47% |
17% |
| Oct 2002 |
2 |
6% |
15% |
14% |
48% |
17% |
| Nov 2002 |
3 |
2% |
10% |
35% |
43% |
10% |
| Dec 2002 |
4 |
10% |
21% |
29% |
35% |
5% |
| Jan 2003 |
5 |
12% |
19% |
20% |
31% |
18% |
| Feb 2003 |
6 |
5% |
8% |
29% |
32% |
25% |
| Mar 2003 |
7 |
19% |
22% |
23% |
22% |
14% |
| Apr 2003 |
8 |
23% |
24% |
23% |
17% |
15% |
| May 2003 |
9 |
21% |
20% |
25% |
20% |
15% |
| Jun 2003 |
10 |
18% |
22% |
22% |
20% |
18% |
| Jul 2003 |
11 |
22% |
20% |
20% |
21% |
17% |
| NINO3.4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Aug 2002 |
0 |
2% |
11% |
23% |
39% |
25% |
| Sep 2002 |
1 |
9% |
11% |
23% |
32% |
24% |
| Oct 2002 |
2 |
2% |
19% |
23% |
32% |
24% |
| Nov 2002 |
3 |
1% |
14% |
22% |
56% |
8% |
| Dec 2002 |
4 |
10% |
16% |
17% |
44% |
13% |
| Jan 2003 |
5 |
12% |
13% |
20% |
42% |
13% |
| Feb 2003 |
6 |
5% |
11% |
19% |
48% |
17% |
| Mar 2003 |
7 |
4% |
15% |
28% |
27% |
26% |
| Apr 2003 |
8 |
13% |
22% |
25% |
22% |
18% |
| May 2003 |
9 |
16% |
21% |
28% |
23% |
12% |
| Jun 2003 |
10 |
21% |
22% |
23% |
19% |
16% |
| Jul 2003 |
11 |
17% |
22% |
23% |
19% |
18% |
| NINO4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Aug 2002 |
0 |
2% |
18% |
20% |
11% |
49% |
| Sep 2002 |
1 |
2% |
18% |
20% |
19% |
42% |
| Oct 2002 |
2 |
0% |
6% |
28% |
47% |
19% |
| Nov 2002 |
3 |
1% |
14% |
35% |
35% |
15% |
| Dec 2002 |
4 |
0% |
8% |
23% |
29% |
39% |
| Jan 2003 |
5 |
3% |
12% |
32% |
34% |
18% |
| Feb 2003 |
6 |
5% |
11% |
31% |
31% |
23% |
| Mar 2003 |
7 |
6% |
16% |
26% |
27% |
25% |
| Apr 2003 |
8 |
6% |
24% |
29% |
27% |
14% |
| May 2003 |
9 |
5% |
22% |
24% |
23% |
27% |
| Jun 2003 |
10 |
12% |
22% |
28% |
19% |
18% |
| Jul 2003 |
11 |
19% |
23% |
22% |
18% |
18% |