Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts
Probabilistic Forecasts of ENSO Indices Using Statistical Models
Simon J. Mason
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
The forecasts below were produced using
January 2002
observed sea-surface temperatures, and with version
3.04
of the SPEF (Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts) model.
Previous forecasts are available online.
| NINO1&2 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Feb 2002 |
0 |
33% |
39% |
15% |
11% |
2% |
| Mar 2002 |
1 |
33% |
28% |
15% |
21% |
4% |
| Apr 2002 |
2 |
29% |
22% |
25% |
20% |
4% |
| May 2002 |
3 |
26% |
25% |
16% |
25% |
9% |
| Jun 2002 |
4 |
29% |
24% |
26% |
13% |
8% |
| Jul 2002 |
5 |
31% |
22% |
23% |
18% |
7% |
| Aug 2002 |
6 |
17% |
26% |
20% |
24% |
13% |
| Sep 2002 |
7 |
18% |
25% |
19% |
24% |
13% |
| Oct 2002 |
8 |
20% |
27% |
16% |
21% |
16% |
| Nov 2002 |
9 |
33% |
25% |
14% |
10% |
18% |
| Dec 2002 |
10 |
27% |
32% |
15% |
8% |
19% |
| Jan 2003 |
11 |
26% |
17% |
25% |
16% |
16% |
| NINO3 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Feb 2002 |
0 |
5% |
56% |
35% |
4% |
0% |
| Mar 2002 |
1 |
25% |
44% |
15% |
14% |
2% |
| Apr 2002 |
2 |
29% |
32% |
20% |
12% |
7% |
| May 2002 |
3 |
19% |
27% |
22% |
19% |
14% |
| Jun 2002 |
4 |
18% |
25% |
22% |
24% |
11% |
| Jul 2002 |
5 |
19% |
22% |
18% |
29% |
12% |
| Aug 2002 |
6 |
18% |
23% |
21% |
23% |
15% |
| Sep 2002 |
7 |
20% |
29% |
19% |
21% |
11% |
| Oct 2002 |
8 |
17% |
25% |
23% |
18% |
16% |
| Nov 2002 |
9 |
17% |
27% |
22% |
21% |
14% |
| Dec 2002 |
10 |
21% |
27% |
21% |
21% |
10% |
| Jan 2003 |
11 |
21% |
19% |
26% |
18% |
16% |
| NINO3.4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Feb 2002 |
0 |
2% |
31% |
65% |
2% |
0% |
| Mar 2002 |
1 |
15% |
36% |
30% |
18% |
1% |
| Apr 2002 |
2 |
19% |
36% |
27% |
12% |
5% |
| May 2002 |
3 |
25% |
30% |
27% |
14% |
5% |
| Jun 2002 |
4 |
16% |
27% |
23% |
22% |
12% |
| Jul 2002 |
5 |
13% |
27% |
22% |
23% |
15% |
| Aug 2002 |
6 |
16% |
27% |
22% |
20% |
15% |
| Sep 2002 |
7 |
15% |
29% |
22% |
21% |
14% |
| Oct 2002 |
8 |
15% |
25% |
22% |
23% |
15% |
| Nov 2002 |
9 |
17% |
26% |
23% |
24% |
10% |
| Dec 2002 |
10 |
16% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
12% |
| Jan 2003 |
11 |
20% |
20% |
25% |
20% |
14% |
| NINO4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Feb 2002 |
0 |
6% |
35% |
21% |
35% |
3% |
| Mar 2002 |
1 |
8% |
30% |
26% |
31% |
5% |
| Apr 2002 |
2 |
17% |
27% |
22% |
23% |
10% |
| May 2002 |
3 |
15% |
28% |
25% |
20% |
13% |
| Jun 2002 |
4 |
18% |
24% |
23% |
20% |
15% |
| Jul 2002 |
5 |
25% |
25% |
20% |
16% |
13% |
| Aug 2002 |
6 |
18% |
23% |
21% |
23% |
14% |
| Sep 2002 |
7 |
26% |
27% |
20% |
17% |
9% |
| Oct 2002 |
8 |
20% |
28% |
24% |
18% |
10% |
| Nov 2002 |
9 |
18% |
30% |
24% |
16% |
12% |
| Dec 2002 |
10 |
17% |
29% |
24% |
17% |
14% |
| Jan 2003 |
11 |
21% |
25% |
28% |
15% |
11% |