Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts
Probabilistic Forecasts of ENSO Indices Using Statistical Models
Simon J. Mason
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
The forecasts below were produced using
February 2002
observed sea-surface temperatures, and with version
3.04
of the SPEF (Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts) model.
Previous forecasts are available online.
| NINO1&2 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Mar 2002 |
0 |
5% |
10% |
28% |
40% |
17% |
| Apr 2002 |
1 |
14% |
41% |
17% |
26% |
3% |
| May 2002 |
2 |
21% |
26% |
29% |
18% |
7% |
| Jun 2002 |
3 |
31% |
29% |
26% |
10% |
3% |
| Jul 2002 |
4 |
46% |
24% |
15% |
11% |
4% |
| Aug 2002 |
5 |
45% |
32% |
12% |
7% |
4% |
| Sep 2002 |
6 |
52% |
30% |
8% |
7% |
3% |
| Oct 2002 |
7 |
52% |
25% |
12% |
7% |
4% |
| Nov 2002 |
8 |
50% |
23% |
8% |
11% |
7% |
| Dec 2002 |
9 |
48% |
30% |
10% |
6% |
6% |
| Jan 2003 |
10 |
39% |
34% |
17% |
3% |
7% |
| Feb 2003 |
11 |
31% |
11% |
16% |
19% |
23% |
| NINO3 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Mar 2002 |
0 |
2% |
11% |
34% |
36% |
16% |
| Apr 2002 |
1 |
9% |
17% |
22% |
30% |
21% |
| May 2002 |
2 |
9% |
15% |
21% |
28% |
27% |
| Jun 2002 |
3 |
14% |
19% |
15% |
19% |
33% |
| Jul 2002 |
4 |
15% |
19% |
16% |
19% |
32% |
| Aug 2002 |
5 |
15% |
17% |
17% |
21% |
31% |
| Sep 2002 |
6 |
14% |
21% |
15% |
22% |
29% |
| Oct 2002 |
7 |
15% |
16% |
17% |
27% |
26% |
| Nov 2002 |
8 |
14% |
17% |
15% |
24% |
30% |
| Dec 2002 |
9 |
15% |
18% |
15% |
22% |
30% |
| Jan 2003 |
10 |
14% |
15% |
20% |
21% |
31% |
| Feb 2003 |
11 |
14% |
21% |
17% |
21% |
27% |
| NINO3.4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Mar 2002 |
0 |
0% |
9% |
34% |
48% |
8% |
| Apr 2002 |
1 |
1% |
17% |
28% |
30% |
24% |
| May 2002 |
2 |
14% |
16% |
23% |
29% |
19% |
| Jun 2002 |
3 |
14% |
20% |
16% |
23% |
28% |
| Jul 2002 |
4 |
14% |
19% |
17% |
19% |
31% |
| Aug 2002 |
5 |
14% |
19% |
16% |
23% |
28% |
| Sep 2002 |
6 |
15% |
19% |
17% |
21% |
27% |
| Oct 2002 |
7 |
9% |
23% |
20% |
23% |
25% |
| Nov 2002 |
8 |
10% |
23% |
17% |
21% |
29% |
| Dec 2002 |
9 |
13% |
20% |
18% |
21% |
28% |
| Jan 2003 |
10 |
14% |
17% |
23% |
17% |
29% |
| Feb 2003 |
11 |
15% |
17% |
25% |
14% |
29% |
| NINO4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Mar 2002 |
0 |
0% |
2% |
23% |
58% |
17% |
| Apr 2002 |
1 |
1% |
12% |
20% |
42% |
25% |
| May 2002 |
2 |
1% |
19% |
17% |
35% |
29% |
| Jun 2002 |
3 |
7% |
17% |
22% |
25% |
29% |
| Jul 2002 |
4 |
12% |
14% |
18% |
28% |
29% |
| Aug 2002 |
5 |
14% |
22% |
15% |
21% |
28% |
| Sep 2002 |
6 |
13% |
20% |
16% |
18% |
32% |
| Oct 2002 |
7 |
10% |
22% |
15% |
25% |
29% |
| Nov 2002 |
8 |
9% |
24% |
19% |
23% |
25% |
| Dec 2002 |
9 |
9% |
24% |
16% |
23% |
28% |
| Jan 2003 |
10 |
12% |
18% |
27% |
17% |
27% |
| Feb 2003 |
11 |
8% |
22% |
21% |
19% |
30% |