Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts
Probabilistic Forecasts of ENSO Indices Using Statistical Models
Simon J. Mason
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
The forecasts below were produced using
August 2002
observed sea-surface temperatures, and with version
3.04
of the SPEF (Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts) model.
Previous forecasts are available online.
| NINO1&2 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Sep 2002 |
0 |
1% |
9% |
26% |
62% |
1% |
| Oct 2002 |
1 |
4% |
13% |
13% |
65% |
4% |
| Nov 2002 |
2 |
9% |
12% |
25% |
36% |
18% |
| Dec 2002 |
3 |
4% |
9% |
16% |
43% |
27% |
| Jan 2003 |
4 |
10% |
11% |
15% |
33% |
31% |
| Feb 2003 |
5 |
12% |
10% |
28% |
20% |
30% |
| Mar 2003 |
6 |
13% |
14% |
23% |
28% |
22% |
| Apr 2003 |
7 |
17% |
21% |
23% |
17% |
22% |
| May 2003 |
8 |
15% |
12% |
22% |
25% |
26% |
| Jun 2003 |
9 |
16% |
14% |
18% |
28% |
24% |
| Jul 2003 |
10 |
22% |
17% |
19% |
24% |
18% |
| Aug 2003 |
11 |
18% |
13% |
25% |
26% |
18% |
| NINO3 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Sep 2002 |
0 |
3% |
13% |
19% |
52% |
14% |
| Oct 2002 |
1 |
2% |
10% |
27% |
50% |
12% |
| Nov 2002 |
2 |
2% |
11% |
28% |
48% |
11% |
| Dec 2002 |
3 |
2% |
12% |
34% |
45% |
7% |
| Jan 2003 |
4 |
5% |
20% |
27% |
34% |
14% |
| Feb 2003 |
5 |
9% |
17% |
28% |
31% |
16% |
| Mar 2003 |
6 |
13% |
20% |
22% |
25% |
20% |
| Apr 2003 |
7 |
20% |
20% |
23% |
19% |
18% |
| May 2003 |
8 |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
8% |
| Jun 2003 |
9 |
23% |
31% |
18% |
18% |
11% |
| Jul 2003 |
10 |
25% |
26% |
17% |
16% |
15% |
| Aug 2003 |
11 |
24% |
17% |
24% |
21% |
14% |
| NINO3.4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Sep 2002 |
0 |
0% |
10% |
25% |
17% |
48% |
| Oct 2002 |
1 |
3% |
15% |
15% |
21% |
47% |
| Nov 2002 |
2 |
1% |
6% |
22% |
34% |
37% |
| Dec 2002 |
3 |
2% |
19% |
19% |
10% |
50% |
| Jan 2003 |
4 |
3% |
13% |
16% |
38% |
30% |
| Feb 2003 |
5 |
4% |
12% |
18% |
37% |
29% |
| Mar 2003 |
6 |
5% |
15% |
22% |
29% |
29% |
| Apr 2003 |
7 |
13% |
22% |
24% |
22% |
19% |
| May 2003 |
8 |
16% |
20% |
29% |
23% |
11% |
| Jun 2003 |
9 |
20% |
23% |
23% |
22% |
12% |
| Jul 2003 |
10 |
16% |
16% |
25% |
24% |
20% |
| Aug 2003 |
11 |
29% |
15% |
25% |
17% |
13% |
| NINO4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| Sep 2002 |
0 |
0% |
16% |
22% |
9% |
52% |
| Oct 2002 |
1 |
0% |
5% |
28% |
44% |
23% |
| Nov 2002 |
2 |
0% |
10% |
22% |
17% |
51% |
| Dec 2002 |
3 |
1% |
11% |
19% |
20% |
50% |
| Jan 2003 |
4 |
1% |
4% |
13% |
23% |
60% |
| Feb 2003 |
5 |
9% |
11% |
13% |
28% |
39% |
| Mar 2003 |
6 |
2% |
6% |
20% |
35% |
37% |
| Apr 2003 |
7 |
2% |
9% |
24% |
29% |
36% |
| May 2003 |
8 |
5% |
16% |
19% |
26% |
34% |
| Jun 2003 |
9 |
7% |
16% |
25% |
26% |
26% |
| Jul 2003 |
10 |
14% |
17% |
27% |
25% |
18% |
| Aug 2003 |
11 |
16% |
19% |
24% |
23% |
18% |