Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts
Probabilistic Forecasts of ENSO Indices Using Statistical Models
Simon J. Mason
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
The forecasts below were produced using
April 2002
observed sea-surface temperatures, and with version
3.04
of the SPEF (Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts) model.
Previous forecasts are available online.
| NINO1&2 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| May 2002 |
0 |
1% |
2% |
16% |
69% |
12% |
| Jun 2002 |
1 |
2% |
14% |
13% |
48% |
23% |
| Jul 2002 |
2 |
3% |
12% |
15% |
51% |
19% |
| Aug 2002 |
3 |
7% |
9% |
25% |
36% |
23% |
| Sep 2002 |
4 |
8% |
5% |
27% |
38% |
22% |
| Oct 2002 |
5 |
7% |
7% |
20% |
40% |
27% |
| Nov 2002 |
6 |
13% |
9% |
22% |
30% |
27% |
| Dec 2002 |
7 |
6% |
10% |
24% |
29% |
32% |
| Jan 2003 |
8 |
19% |
20% |
19% |
20% |
22% |
| Feb 2003 |
9 |
20% |
14% |
18% |
15% |
33% |
| Mar 2003 |
10 |
20% |
15% |
19% |
22% |
23% |
| Apr 2003 |
11 |
28% |
19% |
13% |
21% |
19% |
| NINO3 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| May 2002 |
0 |
1% |
6% |
23% |
43% |
28% |
| Jun 2002 |
1 |
4% |
12% |
21% |
35% |
28% |
| Jul 2002 |
2 |
6% |
15% |
20% |
32% |
27% |
| Aug 2002 |
3 |
11% |
12% |
28% |
30% |
18% |
| Sep 2002 |
4 |
5% |
11% |
17% |
35% |
32% |
| Oct 2002 |
5 |
5% |
8% |
21% |
35% |
31% |
| Nov 2002 |
6 |
4% |
7% |
19% |
39% |
31% |
| Dec 2002 |
7 |
5% |
4% |
26% |
32% |
33% |
| Jan 2003 |
8 |
12% |
16% |
24% |
26% |
22% |
| Feb 2003 |
9 |
18% |
19% |
21% |
21% |
21% |
| Mar 2003 |
10 |
19% |
16% |
19% |
25% |
22% |
| Apr 2003 |
11 |
20% |
15% |
21% |
19% |
25% |
| NINO3.4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| May 2002 |
0 |
0% |
1% |
26% |
39% |
34% |
| Jun 2002 |
1 |
2% |
13% |
20% |
35% |
31% |
| Jul 2002 |
2 |
10% |
18% |
20% |
31% |
21% |
| Aug 2002 |
3 |
5% |
15% |
21% |
31% |
27% |
| Sep 2002 |
4 |
4% |
12% |
19% |
36% |
29% |
| Oct 2002 |
5 |
8% |
16% |
36% |
24% |
16% |
| Nov 2002 |
6 |
3% |
12% |
19% |
37% |
29% |
| Dec 2002 |
7 |
8% |
21% |
35% |
22% |
15% |
| Jan 2003 |
8 |
9% |
11% |
27% |
26% |
26% |
| Feb 2003 |
9 |
17% |
14% |
32% |
22% |
15% |
| Mar 2003 |
10 |
12% |
20% |
31% |
21% |
16% |
| Apr 2003 |
11 |
11% |
17% |
26% |
21% |
25% |
| NINO4 |
| Month |
lead-time |
cold |
cool |
neutral |
warm |
hot |
| May 2002 |
0 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
23% |
77% |
| Jun 2002 |
1 |
0% |
3% |
18% |
33% |
46% |
| Jul 2002 |
2 |
0% |
0% |
6% |
30% |
64% |
| Aug 2002 |
3 |
0% |
2% |
7% |
37% |
54% |
| Sep 2002 |
4 |
0% |
3% |
9% |
34% |
55% |
| Oct 2002 |
5 |
1% |
5% |
17% |
41% |
36% |
| Nov 2002 |
6 |
4% |
17% |
29% |
27% |
22% |
| Dec 2002 |
7 |
3% |
13% |
24% |
30% |
31% |
| Jan 2003 |
8 |
2% |
13% |
19% |
27% |
39% |
| Feb 2003 |
9 |
4% |
19% |
27% |
22% |
27% |
| Mar 2003 |
10 |
5% |
23% |
17% |
29% |
27% |
| Apr 2003 |
11 |
5% |
19% |
23% |
24% |
29% |