Senior Staff Associate
Forecasting, Prediction Research
Shuhua Li holds a PhD in meteorology from Monash University, Australia, and a BS in meteorology from Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, China. Since joining the IRI in mid-2004, Li has been involved in the IRI’s seasonal climate forecasts based on multi-model ensembling of several atmospheric general circulation models. Besides monthly production of these model forecasts, he is also responsible for collection and analysis of ENSO predictions, and making the extremely popular ENSO forecast plume, from up to 25 dynamical/statistical models around the world. Li’s research in forecasting and prediction, as well as real-time forecast production, aims to improve predictive capability and to provide timely information and forecast products.
Li’s research interests include prediction and predictability of both 1-tier and 2-tier global climate models. He also works on verification of the IRI seasonal forecasts based on tercile-category probabilities, as well as probabilistic forecasts for more extreme conditions. More recently, Li has worked on seasonal climate forecasts based on multi-model ensembles of several coupled global models, including the latest NCEP CFSv2 real-time forecasts and some other model products from NMME.
Role at the IRI
Li is responsible for the monthly production of the IRI seasonal climate forecasts, as well as ENSO prediction and analysis. He is also involved in research projects related to skill assessment of the GCM hindcasts and verification of the real-time forecasts.