Description of Statistical Plots
These plots provide useful information concerning regional
forecasts of seasonal precipitation or surface air temperature data.
On the left side of the plot are time series of:
- A) Observed seasonal anomalies for 1970-91 (these will be brought
up to date as data become available).
- B) The results from 5 model simulations
(ECHAM3.2, T42 resolution) using prescribed observed SSTs covering 1970-91.
The results from the individual simulations are shown, as well
as their average.
- C) Above the plots, the values for R and P give the correlations
and ABN scores (the probability of a correct above-below-normal
catagorical model estimate) calculated using the observations and the
mean of the ensemble results.
On the right hand vertical axis of the right-hand plot, the results
from the climate forecast runs are shown.
The right hand side of the page shows the frequency distribution of
seasonal results from the individual elements of the
prescribed observed SST simulations, and the distribution from the
forecast simulations. This allows an easy visual comparison of how
the current forecast values compare with the behavior of the model
when given observed SSTs.
Precipitation data are plotted as both seasonal anomalies (mm/day), and
as percent of (model) normal precipitation. Temperature data are
shown as anomalies (degrees C).
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