Climate Outlook
NORTH AMERICA January - June 2003
Issued: December 2002
The IRI has prepared this experimental Climate Outlook
for North America for January - June 2003. Of relevance in
the preparation of this outlook is the prediction of
moderate El Niño conditions in the central and eastern equatorial
Pacific through the end of 2002 and lasting at least into the first two
to four months of 2003. The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across
much of the central equatorial Pacific are more than 1 degree C
above their long-term average(SSTs), and have been so for the last
several months. In the last month, SST anomalies in some parts of the
central and eastern equatorial Pacific have exceeded 2 degrees C.
Warm SST anomalies for the central equatorial Pacific are
predicted by the coupled model throughout the forecast period
January-March 2003,
February-April 2003,
March-May 2003,
April-June 2003.
However, the coupled model forecast has not captured
the strength of the currently observed warm conditions, and it is
believed that the SST anomalies observed in the next 2-3 months may
be warmer than indicated in the coupled model SST forecast. Warmer
than average SSTs continue to dominate much of the central and western
Indian Ocean. These are expected to decrease slowly through the
forecast period. There are currently no substantial SST anomalies in
the tropical Atlantic Ocean, but this may change near the end of the
forecast period as the northern tropical Atlantic frequently develops
warm SST anomalies in the February-May season in response to El Niño
conditions in the Pacific.
METHODS -
This Outlook was prepared using the following procedures and
information:
A) Coupled ocean-atmosphere model predictions of tropical Pacific SST
covering the forecast period. Particularly heavy weighting has been
given to predictions from the coupled model operated by the NOAA
National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Modeling Branch.
This model suggests a continuation of near-average conditions during the
first forecast season. The forecast for near-neutral conditions is
consistent with some, but not all, numerical and statistical forecasts
of central and eastern Pacific SSTs.
B) Forecasts of the tropical Indian ocean using a statistical model
developed by the IRI.
C) Global atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) predictions of the
atmospheric response to the present and predicted sea-surface
temperature patterns.
D) Other sources of information include
CPC ;
NASA's
Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (GSFC-NASA)
and also seasonal prediction research at COLA.
The procedures, models, and data used to derive this Climate Outlook may
be somewhat different from those used by the national meteorological
services in the region. Thus, this product may differ from the official
forecasts issued in those areas. The Climate Outlook for
January - June 2003
is dependent on the accuracy of the SST predictions. For the
tropical Pacific, these predictions can be expected to provide useful
information, but there is some uncertainty concerning the evolution of
SSTs. Spread in global SST predictions is a source of uncertainty in the
Outlook provided here. Note that even if perfectly accurate SST
forecasts were possible, there would still be uncertainty in the climate
forecast due to chaotic internal variability of the atmosphere. These
uncertainties are reflected in the probabilities given in the forecast.
It is stressed that the current status of seasonal-to-interannual
climate forecasting allows prediction of spatial and temporal averages,
and does not fully account for all factors that influence regional and
national climate variability. This Outlook is relevant only to seasonal
time scales and relatively large areas; local variations should be
expected, and variations within the 3-month season should also be
expected. For further information concerning this and other guidance
products, users are strongly advised to contact their National
Meteorological Services.
OUTLOOK -
This Outlook covers four seasons: January-March 2003,
February-April 2003, March-May 2003 and April-June 2003.
Maps are given showing tercile probabilities of
precipitation and temperature. The maps for precipitation indicate the
probabilities that the seasonal precipitation will fall into the wettest
third of the years (top number), the middle third of the years (middle
number), or the driest third of the years (bottom number). The color
shading indicates the probability of the most dominant tercile -- that
is, the tercile having the highest forecast probability. The color bar
alongside the map defines these dominant tercile probability levels. The
upper side of the color bar shows the colors used for increasingly
strong probabilities when the dominant tercile is the above-normal
tercile, while the lower side shows likewise for the below-normal
tercile. The gray color indicates an enhanced probability for the
near-normal tercile (nearly always limited to 40%). As before, numbers
and their associated histograms show the probabilities of the three
terciles. In areas with lots of spatial detail, there may not be
sufficient room on the map, to allow histograms for each region. In
those cases, some idea of the probabilities may be gained from the color
alone. A qualitative outlook of climatology ("C") indicates that there
is no basis for favoring any particular category.
Areas that are marked by "D" represent regions for which less than 3cm of
precipitation typically occurs over the season.
Otherwise, for example, in the case of
January-March 2003 (Map A), there
is a 25% probability that the precipitation will be in the wettest third
of the years, a 35% chance it will be in the near-normal third of the
years, and a 40% chance that the precipitation will be in the driest
third of the years in much of southwestern Canada.
Maps of temperature show expected probabilities that the seasonal
temperatures will fall into the warmest third of the years, the middle
third of the years, or the coldest third of the years
(Map A).
The numbers for each region on the temperature maps
indicate the probabilities of temperatures to fall in each of the three
categories, above-, near-, and below-normal.
An
additional precipitation map
is provided for the first season indicating probabilities for extreme
precipitation anomalies. Extremes are defined as anomalies that fall
within the top and bottom 15th percentile of the observed records. A
priori, there is a 15% probability of being within the extremely wet
category, and a 15% probability of being within the extremely dry
category, leaving a 70% probability that the precipitation will not be
extreme. The maps indicate areas of increased risk of extreme
precipitation totals. Three levels of increased risk are defined:
slightly enhanced risk, enhanced risk, and greatly enhanced risk. For
slightly enhanced risk, there is a 25-40% probability that precipitation
will be within the indicated extreme, i.e. wet or dry. This represents
an approximate doubling of the climatological risk. For enhanced risk,
there is a 40-50% probability that precipitation will be within the
indicated extreme. This represents an approximate tripling of the
climatological risk. For greatly enhanced risk, the probability that
precipitation will be within the indicated extreme exceeds 50%, i.e. the
indicated extreme is the most likely outcome. A similar map is provided
in the first season indicating probabilities of
extreme temperature
anomalies.
Boundaries between sub-regions should be considered as transition zones,
and their location considered to be only qualitatively correct.
January-March 2003 through April-June 2003:
The following discussion briefly describes the probability anomaly forecasts:
Precipitation
Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are
forecast for most of the Caribbean, the southern tier of the U.S. and
northern Mexico for all four forecast periods.
Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast for southern
Central America, parts of the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. and some
part of the northwestern U.S. and southwestern or south-central Canada
for all four forecast periods. Enhanced probabilities for below normal
precipitation are forecast for the Hawaiian islands during the second,
third and fourth forecast periods.
Temperature
An enhanced probability for above normal temperature is forecast
for the Caribbean and most of (but not northern) Central America for
all four forecast periods. The same forecast applies also to
much of the northern tier of the U.S. and southern tier of Canada for
the first three forecast periods, shrinking to mainly the western
parts of those two countries for the fourth period. An enhanced probability
for below normal temperature is forecast for extreme eastern Canada for
the first two forecast periods due to below normal SST in that vicinity,
and for small portions of the southeastern or extreme southern U.S. during
the first three periods due to the El Niño. These small regions in the
U.S. are mixed with places whose forecast is for enhanced probabilities for
near normal temperature, but with a greater probability for below normal
than above normal.
OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY DATA for Jan-Feb-Mar,
Feb-Mar-Apr, Mar-Apr-May and Apr-May-Jun
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE:
TERCILE THRESHOLDS (33%-ile & 67%-ile):
EXTREME THRESHOLDS (15%-ile & 85 %-ile):
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