Climate Outlook
EUROPE May - October 2003
Issued: April 2003
The IRI has prepared this experimental Climate Outlook for Europe for
May - October 2003. Of relevance in the preparation of this outlook is the
decline of the El Niño event that had been observed in the central and
eastern equatorial Pacific since mid-2002 to near-neutral conditions. As
of early April 2003 equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have
returned to near-normal in the eastern/central equatorial Pacific, and
are approximately 0.5 degrees C below normal in the eastern equatorial
Pacific. The SSTs in the central equatorial Pacific (near the dateline)
are currently near 0.5C above average (down from 1C last month), and will
most likely weaken to near-normal by mid-2003
(see IRI Probabilistic ENSO forecast).
Warmer than average SSTs continue to dominate much of the tropical
Indian Ocean (SSTs)
. These are predicted to decrease slowly through the forecast
period. Warmer than average SSTs currently exist in the northern and southern
sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean, and also in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. The above-normal
SSTs north of the equator are predicted to weaken more rapidly than those south of the equator.
(May-July 2003,
June-August 2003,
July-September 2003,
August-October 2003).
METHODS -
This Outlook was prepared using the following procedures and
information:
A) Coupled ocean-atmosphere model predictions of tropical Pacific SST
covering the forecast period. Particularly heavy weighting has been
given to predictions from the coupled model operated by the NOAA
National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Modeling Branch.
This model suggests a continuation of near-average conditions during the
first forecast season. The forecast for near-neutral conditions is
consistent with some, but not all, numerical and statistical forecasts
of central and eastern Pacific SSTs.
B) Forecasts of the tropical Indian ocean using a statistical model
developed by the IRI.
C) Global atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) predictions of the
atmospheric response to the present and predicted sea-surface
temperature patterns.
D) Other sources of information include
NASA's
Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (GSFC-NASA)
and also seasonal prediction research at COLA.
The procedures, models, and data used to derive this Climate Outlook may
be somewhat different from those used by the national meteorological
services in the region. Thus, this product may differ from the official
forecasts issued in those areas. The Climate Outlook for
May - October 2003
is dependent on the accuracy of the SST predictions. For the
tropical Pacific, these predictions can be expected to provide useful
information, but there is some uncertainty concerning the evolution of
SSTs. Spread in global SST predictions is a source of uncertainty in the
Outlook provided here. Note that even if perfectly accurate SST
forecasts were possible, there would still be uncertainty in the climate
forecast due to chaotic internal variability of the atmosphere. These
uncertainties are reflected in the probabilities given in the forecast.
It is stressed that the current status of seasonal-to-interannual
climate forecasting allows prediction of spatial and temporal averages,
and does not fully account for all factors that influence regional and
national climate variability. This Outlook is relevant only to seasonal
time scales and relatively large areas; local variations should be
expected, and variations within the 3-month season should also be
expected. For further information concerning this and other guidance
products, users are strongly advised to contact their National
Meteorological Services.
OUTLOOK -
This Outlook covers four seasons: May-July 2003,
June-August 2003, July-September 2003 and August-October 2003.
Maps are given showing tercile probabilities of
precipitation and temperature. The maps for precipitation indicate the
probabilities that the seasonal precipitation will fall into the wettest
third of the years (top number), the middle third of the years (middle
number), or the driest third of the years (bottom number). The color
shading indicates the probability of the most dominant tercile -- that
is, the tercile having the highest forecast probability. The color bar
alongside the map defines these dominant tercile probability levels. The
upper side of the color bar shows the colors used for increasingly
strong probabilities when the dominant tercile is the above-normal
tercile, while the lower side shows likewise for the below-normal
tercile. The gray color indicates an enhanced probability for the
near-normal tercile (nearly always limited to 40%). As before, numbers
and their associated histograms show the probabilities of the three
terciles. In areas with lots of spatial detail, there may not be
sufficient room on the map, to allow histograms for each region. In
those cases, some idea of the probabilities may be gained from the color
alone. A qualitative outlook of climatology ("C") indicates that there
is no basis for favoring any particular category.
Areas that are marked by "D" represent regions for which less than 3cm of
precipitation typically occurs over the season.
Otherwise, for example, in the case of
May-July 2003 (Map A), there
is a 40% probability that the precipitation will be in the wettest third
of the years, a 25% chance it will be in the near-normal third of the
years, and a 25% chance that the precipitation will be in the driest
third of the years in part of western Russia and Kazakhstan.
Maps of temperature show expected probabilities that the seasonal
temperatures will fall into the warmest third of the years, the middle
third of the years, or the coldest third of the years
(Map A) . The numbers for each region on the temperature maps
indicate the probabilities of temperatures to fall in each of the three
categories, above-, near-, and below-normal.
An additional precipitation
map
is provided for the first season indicating probabilities for extreme
precipitation anomalies. Extremes are defined as anomalies that fall
within the top and bottom 15th percentile of the observed records. A
priori, there is a 15% probability of being within the extremely wet
category, and a 15% probability of being within the extremely dry
category, leaving a 70% probability that the precipitation will not be
extreme. The maps indicate areas of increased risk of extreme
precipitation totals. Three levels of increased risk are defined:
slightly enhanced risk, enhanced risk, and greatly enhanced risk. For
slightly enhanced risk, there is a 25-40% probability that precipitation
will be within the indicated extreme, i.e. wet or dry. This represents
an approximate doubling of the climatological risk. For enhanced risk,
there is a 40-50% probability that precipitation will be within the
indicated extreme. This represents an approximate tripling of the
climatological risk. For greatly enhanced risk, the probability that
precipitation will be within the indicated extreme exceeds 50%, i.e. the
indicated extreme is the most likely outcome. A similar map is provided
in the first season indicating probabilities of
extreme temperature
anomalies.
Boundaries between sub-regions should be considered as transition zones,
and their location considered to be only qualitatively correct.
May-July 2003 through August-October 2003:
The following discussion briefly describes the probability anomaly forecasts:
Precipitation
Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast
for parts of extreme eastern Europe for the first three forecast
periods, and for below normal precipitation in small parts of southern
Europe for the second and fourth forecast periods.
Temperature
An enhanced probability for above normal temperature is forecast for
portions of mainly western, northwestern and southwestern Europe for
all four forecast periods, although an enhanced probability for below
normal temperature is forecast for portions of eastern and/or
southeastern Europe for all four periods.
OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY DATA May-Jun-Jul,
Jun-Jul-Aug, Jul-Aug-Sep and Aug-Sep-Oct
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE:
TERCILE THRESHOLDS (33%-ile & 67%-ile):
EXTREME THRESHOLDS (15%-ile & 85 %-ile):
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