The IRI has prepared this experimental Climate Outlook for Africa for September 2001 - February 2002. Of relevance in the preparation of this outlook is the prediction of near-average to slightly warmer than average conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific for the next 6 to 9 months. Currently the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across much of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific are near their long-term average, with locally warm anomalies near the dateline (SSTs), although slightly lower than average SSTs exist in the far eastern equatorial Pacific and warmer than average SSTs persist in the extreme western part of the basin. Near neutral (<0.5C) equatorial Pacific SST conditions are in effect for the first half of the forecast period, September-November 2001, October-December 2001, while during the second half, November-December 2001-January 2002, December 2001-February 2002, they are expected to be slightly above average (approximately 0.5C). The warmer than average SSTs that continue to dominate much of the Indian Ocean are expected to decrease slowly through the forecast period. The area of above-average temperature in the tropical Atlantic Ocean has weakened over the last couple months and is predicted to weaken further through the forecast period.

METHODS -

This Outlook was prepared using the following procedures and information:

A) Coupled ocean-atmosphere model predictions of tropical Pacific SST covering the forecast period. Particularly heavy weighting has been given to predictions from the coupled model operated by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Modeling Branch. This model suggests a continuation of near-average conditions during the first forecast season. The forecast for near-neutral conditions is consistent with some, but not all, numerical and statistical forecasts of central and eastern Pacific SSTs.

B) Forecasts of the tropical Indian ocean using a statistical model developed by the IRI.

C) Global atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) predictions of the atmospheric response to the present and predicted sea-surface temperature patterns.

D) Other sources of information include NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (GSFC-NASA).

The procedures, models, and data used to derive this Climate Outlook may be somewhat different from those used by the national meteorological services in the region. Thus, this product may differ from the official forecasts issued in those areas. The Climate Outlook for September 2001 - February 2002 is dependent on the accuracy of the SST predictions. For the tropical Pacific, these predictions can be expected to provide useful information, but there is some uncertainty concerning the evolution of SSTs. Spread in global SST predictions is a source of uncertainty in the Outlook provided here. Note that even if perfectly accurate SST forecasts were possible, there would still be uncertainty in the climate forecast due to chaotic internal variability of the atmosphere. These uncertainties are reflected in the probabilities given in the forecast.

It is stressed that the current status of seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasting allows prediction of spatial and temporal averages, and does not fully account for all factors that influence regional and national climate variability. This Outlook is relevant only to seasonal time scales and relatively large areas; local variations should be expected, and variations within the 3-month season should also be expected. For further information concerning this and other guidance products, users are strongly advised to contact their National Meteorological Services.

OUTLOOK -

This Outlook covers four seasons: September-November 2001, October-December 2001, November-December 2001-January 2002 and December 2001-February 2002. Maps are given showing tercile probabilities of precipitation and temperature. The maps for precipitation indicate the probabilities that the seasonal precipitation will fall into the wettest third of the years (top number), the middle third of the years (middle number), or the driest third of the years (bottom number). The color shading indicates the probability of the most dominant tercile -- that is, the tercile having the highest forecast probability. The color bar alongside the map defines these dominant tercile probability levels. The right side of the color bar shows the colors used for increasingly strong probabilities when the dominant tercile is the above-normal tercile, while the left side shows likewise for the below-normal tercile. The gray color indicates an enhanced probability for the near-normal tercile (nearly always limited to 40%). As before, numbers and their associated histograms show the probabilities of the three terciles. In areas with lots of spatial detail, there may not be sufficient room on the map, to allow histograms for each region. In those cases, some idea of the probabilities may be gained from the color alone. A qualitative outlook of climatology ("C") indicates that there is no basis for favoring any particular category. Areas that are marked by "D" represent regions experiencing their dry season (less than 15% of annual precipitation) and for which less than 5cm of precipitation typically occurs over the season. Otherwise, for example, in the case of the middle Queensland coast of Australia in September-November 2001 (Map A), there is a 25% probability that the precipitation will be in the wettest third of the years, a 35% chance it will be in the near-normal third of the years, and a 40% chance that the precipitation will be in the driest third of the years.

Maps of temperature show expected probabilities that the seasonal temperatures will fall into the warmest third of the years, the middle third of the years, or the coldest third of the years (Map A). The numbers for each region on the temperature maps indicate the probabilities of temperatures to fall in each of the three categories, above-, near-, and below-normal.

Boundaries between sub-regions should be considered as transition zones, and their location considered to be only qualitatively correct.

September-October-November 2001:

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of precipitation anomalies are indicated:

An enhanced probability for below normal precipitation (45%-35%-20%)is forecast for a small portion of South Australia, surrounded by more weakly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation in much of the remainder of South Australia and small portions of adjacent territories.

An enhanced probability for below normal precipitation (45%-40%-15%) is forecast for Western Australia and the western part of the Northern Territory of Australia, surrounded by more weakly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation in additional parts of mainly northern Territory, extending northward into Timor and other parts of Indonesia.

An enhanced probability for below normal precipitation (45%-35%-20%)is forecast for a small portion of northern Queensland, Australia, and Coral Islands, surrounded by more weakly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation in a larger portion of mainly coastal Queensland and extreme northern New South Wales.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal precipitation (35%-40%-25%) are forecast for part of Papua New Guinea, and the Admiralty Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for Northern New Zealand.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal and near normal precipitation (40%-40%-20%)are forecast for part of Irian Jaya, New Guinea, Papua New Guinea, Tanimbar Island, Timor, and part of the Northern Territory and Queensland, of Australia.

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of precipitation anomalies are indicated for the Pacific Islands:

An enhanced probability for above normal precipitation (20%-35%-45%) is forecast for Wake Island, U.S.

An enhanced probability for above normal precipitation (20%-35%-45%) is forecast for Northern Mariana Islands and Guam.

An enhanced probability for above normal precipitation (15%-40%-45%) is forecast for western Kiribati (near station of Banaba), and Nauru.

An enhanced probability for below normal precipitation (45%-30%-25%) is forecast for the vicinity of Penrhyn, Cook Islands.

An enhanced probability for below normal precipitation (45%-30%-25%) is forecast for Atuona, in northern French Polynesia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation (40%-35%-25%) are forecast for Rakahanga, Cook Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal precipitation (35%-40%-25%) are forecast for the region of Vanuatu and New Caledonia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal precipitation (25%-40%-35%) are forecast for Kiribati, near the stations of Beru and Arorae.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal precipitation (25%-40%-35%) are forecast for the vicinity of Rarotonga, Cook Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for Yap, of the Federated States of Micronesia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for the vicinity of Samoa, American Samoa, Vavau, Niuatoputapu, Tonga, Alofi, Niue Islands, and Nukualofa.

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of temperature anomalies are indicated:

An extremely enhanced probability for above normal temperature (10%-20%-70%)is forecast for Cocos Island, well southwest of Sumatra with coordinates approximately 13S, 97E.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (15%-30%-55% and 20%-30%-50%)is forecast for much of northwestern Indonesia, extending into the Philippines, surrounded by several levels of more weakly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature in most of the remainder of Indonesia and northern Australia.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast for New Zealand.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast for southeastern Tasmania, Australia, surrounded by more weakly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature in the remainder of Tasmania.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are forecast for small parts of Irian Jaya, New Guinea, Papua New Guinea, and the extreme northern parts of the Northern Territory and Queensland, Australia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (30%-30%-40%)are forecast for Chatham Island, east of New Zealand.

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of temperature anomalies are indicated for the Pacific Islands:

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of temperature anomalies are indicated for the Pacific Islands:

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-30%-50%)is fore cast for Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-30%-50%)is fore cast for the vicinity of Kiribati (Beru, Arorae stations), and Nui, Funafuti, an d Tuvalu.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-30%-50%)is fore cast for the vicinity of Vavau, Niuatoputapu, Tonga, Alofi, and Niue Islands.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-30%-50%)is fore cast for Northern Mariana Islands including Guam, U.S.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or Yap island, Micronesia.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or beru and Arorae stations of Kiribati.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or portions of the Solomon Islands.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or the general vicinity of Samoa, American Samoa, Vavau, Niuatoputapu, and Tonga .

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or Fiji, including Rotuma in northern Fiji.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are fo recast for Atafu, Tokelau.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are fo recast for sizeable portions of French Polynesia and a part of the Cook Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (30%-30%-40%)are fo recast for Wake Island, U.S.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (30%-30%-40%)are fo recast for Pohnpei and Chuuk, Micronesia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (30%-30%-40%)are fo recast for much of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (30%-30%-40%)are fo recast for Wallis and Futuna Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (30%-30%-40%)are fo recast for Nukualofa, Tonga.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for Atafu, Tokelau.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for Rarotonga and Rakahanga, Cook Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for Vanuatu.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal temperature (40%-35%-25%) are f orecast for Atuona, in the northern part of French Polynesia.

October-November-December 2001:

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of precipitation anomalies are indicated:

An enhanced probability for below normal precipitation (45%-35%-20%)is forecast for northern Queensland, Australia, extending northward into New Guinea. This region is surrounded by more weakly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation in an expanded area of both Queensland and New Guinea.

An enhanced probability for below normal precipitation (45%-35%-20%)is forecast for Western Australia, surrounded by more weakly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation in a greater area of Western Australia.

An enhanced probability for below normal precipitation (45%-35%-20%)is forecast for South Australia, surrounded by more weakly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation in more of South Australia and extreme western New South Wales.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation (40%-35%-25%) are forecast for southern New Zealand.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal precipitation (35%-40%-25%) are forecast for the Northern Territory of Australia.

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of precipitation anomalies are indicated for the Pacific Islands:

An enhanced probability for above normal precipitation (20%-35%-45%) is forecast for Yap Island.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal precipitation (30%-40%-30%)are f orecast for Rarotonga, in the Cook Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal precipitation (25%-40%-35%) are forecast for Fiji.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal precipitation (25%-40%-35%) are forecast near Tubai, in French Polynesia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation (30%-30%-40%)are forecast for the vicinity of Atafu, Tokelau, Samoa, and American Samoa, surround ing more strongly enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam, U.S.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for the vicinity of Pohnpei and Chuuk, Micronesia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for parts of the Solomon Islands and New Britain, New Guinea.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation (40%-30%-30%)are forecast for Atuona, in northern French Polynesia.

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of temperature anomalies are indicated:

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast for southern New Zealnd, surrounded by more weakly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature in central New Zealand.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (30%-40%-30% and 25%-40%-35%) are forecast for the western portion of Western Australia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (35%-40%-25%) are forecast for parts of Queensland and New South Wales, Australia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are forecast for Irian Jaya, New Guinea, and very small northern parts of Northern Territory and Queensland, Australia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are forecast for northern New Zealand.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for Cocos Island, well southwest of Sumatra with coordinates approximately 13S, 97E.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for part of the northern tier of Australia, including both Northern Territory and Queensland.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for much of Tasmania, Australia.

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of temperature anomalies are indicated for the Pacific Islands:

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of temperature anomalies are indicated for the Pacific Islands:

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-30%-50%)is fore cast for Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, U.S., and Yap Island, Micronesia.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-30%-50%)is fore cast for Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-30%-50%)is fore cast for part of the Solomon Islands.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-30%-50%)is fore cast for Samoa, American Samoa, Vavau, Niuatoputapu, Tonga, Alofi, Niue Islands.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (15%-30%-55%) is for ecast for Kwajalein, in the Marshall Islands.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or the vicinity of Pohnpei and Chuuk, Micronesia.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or Atafu, Tokelau.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or part of the Solomon Islands.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or the vicinity of Wallis and Futuna Islands, and Vavau, Niuatoputapu, Tonga.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (30%-40%-30%)are for ecast for Tubai, French Polynesia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are fo recast for the northwestern tip of the Solomon Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are fo recast for Rakahanga, Cook Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are fo recast for Penrhyn, Cook Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for Wake Island, U.S.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for the vicinity of Kiribati (Beru and Arorae stations), and Nui, Funafut i, and Tuvalu.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for W Kiribati (Banaba station), and Nauru.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for part of the Solomon Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for Fiji, including northern islands of Fiji.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for Nukualofa, Tonga.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for New Caledonia, and Vanuatu.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal temperature (40%-35%-25%) are f orecast for Atuona, in northern French Polynesia.

November-December 2001-January 2002:

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of precipitation anomalies are indicated:

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal precipitation (25%-40%-35%) are forecast for part of Queensland, Australia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation (40%-30%-30%)are forecast for Cocos Island, southwest of Sumatra.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation (40%-30%-30%)are forecast for part of southern Australia, including parts of South Australia, and Western Australia.

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of precipitation anomalies are indicated for the Pacific Islands:

An enhanced probability for below normal precipitation (45%-35%-20%)is forecast for Atuona, in northern French Polynesia.

An enhanced probability for near normal and above normal precipitation (10%-45%- 45%) is forecast for eastern Kiribati (Fanning and Christmas Islands.)

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal precipitation (30%-40%-30%)are f orecast for Nui, and Funafuti, Tuvalu.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal precipitation (30%-40%-30%)are f orecast for the southern part of the Solomon Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal precipitation (30%-40%-30%)are f orecast for Rotuma, of northern Fiji.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal precipitation (25%-40%-35%) are forecast for western Kiribati (Banaba station) and Nauru.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal precipitation (25%-40%-35%) are forecast for the vicinity of Tubai, French Polynesia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for Pohnpei, and Chuuk, of Micronesia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal and above normal precipitation ( 20%-40%-40%)are forecast for Kiribati (Beru and Arorae stations).

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation (40%-30%-30%)are forecast for Rakahanga and Rarotonga, Cook Islands.

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of temperature anomalies are indicated:

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (30%-40%-30% and 25%-40%-35%) are forecast for much of the Northern Territory and western Queensland, Australia, as well as significant portions of Indonesia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are forecast for Western Australia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are forecast for all of New Zealand except for the southern tip.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are forecast for Tasmania, Australia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for Cocos Island, southwest of Sumatra.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for part of Western Australia and the western part of Northern Territory, Australia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal and above normal temperature (20%-40%-40%)are forecast for southern New Zealand.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal temperature (40%-35%-25%) are forecast for the southwestern portion of Western Australia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal temperature (40%-35%-25%) are forecast for the southwestern part of Queensland, Australia, and tiny parts of adjacent provinces.

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of temperature anomalies are indicated for the Pacific Islands:

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of temperature anomalies are indicated for the Pacific Islands:

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (25%-25%-50%)is fore cast for the Northern Mariana Islands.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (25%-25%-50%)is fore cast for the vicinity of Pohnpei and Chuuk, in Micronesia.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-30%-50%)is fore cast for part of the Solomon Islands, surrounded by less enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature in additional portions of the Solomon Islands.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-30%-50%)is fore cast for the vicinity of Atafu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Vavau and Niuato putapu, Tonga, Alofi, Niue Islands.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-25%-55%) is for ecast for Guam, U.S.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (15%-30%-55%) is for ecast for Yap, Island, Micronesia

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (15%-30%-55%) is for ecast for Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or Wake Island, U.S.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or the vicinity of Atafu, Tokelau.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or Wallis and Futuna Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are fo recast for the vicinity of Kiribati (Beru and Arorae stations), Nui, and Funafut i, Tuvalu.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are fo recast for the vicinity of Penrhyn, Cook Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are fo recast for much of French Polynesia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are fo recast for New Caledonia and Vanuatu.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for Fiji, including Rotuma on the northern islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for Rakahanga, Cook Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for Nukualofa, Tonga.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or Vanuatu.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal temperature (40%-35%-25%) are f orecast for Atuona, in northern French Polynesia.

December 2001-January-February 2002:

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of precipitation anomalies are indicated:

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal precipitation (35%-40%-25%) are forecast for part of southern New Zealnd.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation (40%-30%-30%)are forecast for northwestern New South Wales, Australia, and eastern South Australia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation (40%-35%-25%) are forecast for the northeastern Northern Territory, Australia.

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of precipitation anomalies are indicated for the Pacific Islands:

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal precipitation (20%-30%-50%)is fo recast for the vicinity of eastern Kiribati (Fanning and Christmas Islands).

An enhanced probability for above normal precipitation (20%-35%-45%) is forecast for Guam, U.S.

An enhanced probability for above normal precipitation (20%-35%-45%) is forecast for Yap Island, Micronesia, surrounded by less enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for part of the Northern Mariana Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for the vicinity of Chuuk and Pohnpei, Micronesia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for western Kiribati (station of Banaba), and Nauru.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for Atafu, Tokelau.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal and above normal precipitation ( 20%-40%-40%)are forecast for Kiribati (Beru and Arorae stations).

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation (40%-30%-30%)are forecast for Atuona, in northern French Polynesia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation (40%-35%-25%) are forecast for Wake Island, U.S.

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of temperature anomalies are indicated:

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (30%-40%-30%)are forecast for part of the east coast of Queensland, Australia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are forecast for the northern coasts of Queensland and Northern Territory of Australia, extending northward to most of New Guinea.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are forecast for part of Victoria, Australia, as well as Tasmania.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are forecast for most of New Zealand.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for a region in interior Australia including parts of Northern Territory, South Australia and Queensland.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for mainly the southern part of Western Australia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for eastern Victoria, Australia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are forecast for the southern tip of New Zealand.

The following regions of enhanced probabilities of temperature anomalies are indicated for the Pacific Islands:

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-30%-50%)is fore cast for Yap Island, Micronesia.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-30%-50%)is fore cast for the vicinities of Samoa, American Samoa, Vavau and Niuatoputapu, Tonga, Alofi, Niue Islands.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-30%-50%)is fore cast for the vicinities of Rarotonga, Cook Islands, and Bora Bora, French Polyne sia.

A greatly enhanced probability for above normal temperature (15%-30%-55%) is for ecast for Kwajalein, Marshall Islands.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (25%-30%-45%) is forecast f or the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam, U.S.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (25%-30%-45%) is forecast f or Pohnpei and Chuuk, Micronesia.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or part of the Solomon Islands.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or Vavau and Niuatoputapu, Tonga, surrounded by more weakly enhanced probabiliti es for above normal temperature.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (20%-35%-45%) is forecast f or Vanuatu.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (15%-40%-45%) is forecast f or the vicinity of Atafu, Tokelau.

An enhanced probability for above normal temperature (15%-40%-45%) is forecast f or the vicinity of Bora Bora and Tahiti, Frch Polynesia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are fo recast for Rakahanga and Penrhyn, Cook Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are fo recast for the vicinity of Rikitea and Tubai, French Polynesia.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal temperature (25%-40%-35%) are fo recast for New Caledonia and Vanuatu.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (30%-30%-40%)are fo recast for Wake Island, U.S.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for the northwestern Solomon Islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for Kiribati (stations Beru and Arorae), as well as Nui, and Funafuti of Tuvalu.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for Banks, and Santa Cruz islands.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for Wallis and Futuna Islands, and Rotuma in north Fiji as well as the ma in islands of Fiji.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperature (25%-35%-40%)are fo recast for the vicinity of Takaroa, French Polynesia.

OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY DATA for Sep-Oct-Nov, Oct-Nov-Dec, Nov-Dec-Jan and Dec-Jan-Feb

CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE: Temperature Precipitation

TERCILE THRESHOLDS (33%-ile & 67%-ile): Temperature Precipitation

EXTREME THRESHOLDS (15%-ile & 85 %-ile): Temperature Precipitation

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