The IRI has prepared this Climate Outlook for Australia and Indonesia
for January - June 2000. Of relevance in the preparation of this Outlook
has been the current
La
Niņa conditions (lower than average sea-surface temperatures (SSTs)
in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean) that have been amplifying
through the end of 1999. Thus La Niņa conditions are in effect for the
first season of the forecast,
January-February-March 2000, and are expected to decline slowly
through the second season of the forecast period,
April-May-June 2000. The SSTs of the western tropical Indian Ocean
were assumed to remain near-normal, and the above-average SSTs of the
eastern tropical Indian Ocean are expected to return to normal during
the forecast period. The forecast of tropical North Atlantic SSTs
suggests a cooling trend through June 2000.
METHODS -
This Outlook was prepared using the following procedures and
information:
A) Coupled ocean-atmosphere model predictions of tropical Pacific SST
covering the forecast period. Particularly heavy weighting has been
given to predictions from the coupled model operated by the NOAA
National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Modeling Branch.
This model suggests the continuation of La Niņa conditions. The
persistence of colder that average conditions in the central and eastern
equatorial Pacific is consistent with most other numerical and
statistical forecasts.
B) Forecasts of the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans using
statistical models developed by the IRI and CPTEC respectively.
C) Global atmospheric circulation model (GCM) predictions of the
atmospheric response to the present and predicted sea-surface
temperature patterns.
D) Other sources of information include (
Bureau of
Meteorology ; COLA ;
CPC ;
ECMWF
; NIWA
QDNR
).
The procedures, models, and data used to derive this Climate Outlook may
be somewhat different from those used by the national meteorological
services in the region. Thus, this product may differ from the official
forecasts issued in those areas. The Climate Outlook for January - June
2000 is dependent on the quality of the SST predictions. For the
tropical Pacific, these predictions can be expected to provide useful
information, but there is some uncertainty concerning the detailed
evolution of SSTs. Spread in global SST predictions is a source of
uncertainty in the Outlook provided here.
It is stressed that the current status of seasonal-to-interannual
climate forecasting allows prediction of spatial and temporal averages,
and does not fully account for all factors that influence regional and
national climate variability. This Outlook is relevant only to seasonal
time scales and relatively large areas; local variations should be
expected. For further information concerning this and other guidance
products, users are strongly advised to contact their National
Meteorological Services.
OUTLOOK -
This Outlook covers two seasons: January - March 2000 and April - June
2000. Maps are given showing tercile probabilities of precipitation and
temperature. The maps for precipitation indicate the probabilities that
the seasonal precipitation will fall into the wettest third of the years
(top number), the middle third of the years (middle number), or the
driest third of the years (bottom number). A qualitative outlook of
climatology ("C") indicates that there is no basis for favoring any
particular category. Areas that are marked by "D" represent regions
experiencing their dry season (less than 15% of annual precipitation)
and for which less than 5cm of precipitation typically occurs over the
season. Otherwise, for example, in the case of the Philippines in
January - March 2000 (Map B),
there is a 55% probability that the precipitation will be in the wettest
third of the years, a 30% chance it will be in the near-normal third of
the years, and a 15% chance that the precipitation will be in the driest
third of the years.
An additional precipitation
map
is provided for the first season indicating probabilities for extreme
precipitation anomalies. Extremes are defined as anomalies that fall
within the top and bottom 15th percentile of the observed records. A
priori, there is a 15% probability of being within the extremely wet
category, and a 15% probability of being within the extremely dry
category, leaving a 70% probability that the precipitation will not be
extreme. The maps indicate areas of increased risk of extreme
precipitation totals. Three levels of increased risk are defined:
slightly enhanced risk, enhanced risk, and greatly enhanced risk. For
slightly enhanced risk, there is a 25-40% probability that precipitation
will be within the indicated extreme, i.e. wet or dry. This represents
an approximate doubling of the climatological risk. For enhanced risk,
there is a 40-50% probability that precipitation will be within the
indicated extreme. This represents an approximate tripling of the
climatological risk. For greatly enhanced risk, the probability that
precipitation will be within the indicated extreme exceeds 50%, i.e. the
indicated extreme is the most likely outcome.
Maps of temperature show expected probabilities that the seasonal
temperatures will fall into the warmest third of the years, the middle
third of the years, or the coldest third of the years(Map A). The numbers for each
region on the temperature maps indicate the probabilities of
temperatures to fall in each of the three categories, above-, near-, and
below-normal.
Boundaries between sub-regions should be considered as transition zones,
and their location considered to be only qualitatively correct.
January - March 2000:
PRECIPITATION
The following regions of enhanced probabilities of precipitation
anomalies are indicated:
P.A) enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over most of
Thailand, the southernmost part of Myanmar, south-western Cambodia, and
the south-westernmost part of Vietnam;
P.B) slightly enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over
the northern half of Sumatra, and western Malaysia;
P.C) slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over
northern Phillipines, and north central Indonesia;
P.D) greatly enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over
most of the Philippines (a slightly enhanced risk of extremely wet
conditions is indicated);
P.E) greatly enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over
the Marshall Islands;
P.F) slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over
the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and New Caledonia:
P.G) slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over
Fiji;
P.H) slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over
south-western Australia;
P.I) slightly enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation
central southern Australia;
P.J) enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over southern
Australia;
P.K) enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over eastern
Australia;
P.L) slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over
North Island, New Zealand;
P.M) slightly enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over
South Island, New Zealand.
TEMPERATURE
The following regions of enhanced probabilities of temperature anomalies
are indicated:
T.A) slighthly enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures over
south-eastern China;
T.B) greatly enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures over
Sumatra and western Malaysia;
T.C) greatly enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures over
Java, Borneo, and the Philippines;
T.D) enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures over eastern
Indonesia, New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and the
northern part of Australia;
T.E) enhanced probabilities of above-normal to normal temperatures over
central and eastern Australia;
T.F) greatly enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures over
Tasmania;
T.G) greatly enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures over
New Zealand;
T.H) enhanced probabilities of below-normal to normal temperatures over
Nauru, Kiribati, and Tuvalu.
April - June 2000:
PRECIPITATION
The following regions of enhanced probabilities of precipitation
anomalies are indicated:
P.i) enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over southern
Indonesia;
P.ii) slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over
the Solomon Isalands, extending eastward to Tuvalu.
TEMPERATURE
The following regions of enhanced probabilities of temperature anomalies
are indicated:
T.i) slightly enhanced probabilities of normal temperatures over
Malaysia, and eastern and central Indonesia;
T.ii) enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures over
north-easter Indonesia, and most of the Philippines;
T.iii) enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures over eastern
Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands the north-east coast of Australia,
Vanuatu, and New Caledonia.
T.iv) slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures over
south-western Australia.
T.v) slightly enhanced probabilities of near-normal temperatures over
New Zealand's North Island.
T.vi) slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures over
New Zealand's South Island.
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