Africa

Agriculture - Africa: Southern  Rains since October have been below normal throughout most of southern Africa, except in western areas of Zambia and Zimbabwe, parts of Namibia, Botswana, and in central South Africa (reference map). Long-term drought continues in eastern South Africa, Swaziland, and much of southern Mozambique. South African President Thabo Mbeki declared six provinces (including KwaZulu-Natal, Northern Cape, Free State, Mpumalanga, North West, and Eastern Cape) disaster areas on 16 January in response to developing drought conditions. The government of South Africa has announced that it is releasing US$35.5 million for drinking water, food, and animal fodder to aid 18.8 million people. Because of the dry conditions and low soil moisture early in the growing season, the total corn area planted (Maize Triangle map, USDA) in South Africa is estimated to be the smallest in over 50 years -- somewhere between 2.56 and 3.1 million hectares (USDA). South Africa typically consumes about 7.6 million tons of maize per year, but estimates indicate that production this year could be as low as 6.5 to 6.7 million tons, leaving a shortfall of about 1 million tons. Because South Africa is typically a regional supplier of maize, this year's low production could have an impact on other areas of southern Africa as well.

Food shortages continue elsewhere in southern Africa. According to WFP, the countries most affected by drought include Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Swaziland, and parts of Mozambique. In Lesotho, between 600,000 and 700,000 people will require food aid in coming months due to the poor winter harvest and the current drought. WFP is currently feeding about 245,000 people in Swaziland, about one-quarter of the total population. In central and southern Mozambique, rainfall since the end of October has been well below normal, forcing farmers to replant multiple times. Livestock in southern Mozambique have been affected by water shortages as well. The livestock industry in Botswana has been affected by drought and foot and mouth disease. One report indicated that as many as 32,000 cattle were lost in December 2003 due to drought conditions in the eastern and southwestern sections of the country (IRIN). In much of southern Malawi, October-December precipitation totals were only 25 to 50 percent of normal, causing delays in crop planting. (IRIN, IRIN, IRIN, FEWS Net, FEWS Net, IRIN)

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast indicates a slightly increased probability of below-normal precipitation for most of southern Africa at the end of the rainy season.

Agriculture - Angola,Namibia  Heavy rains since mid-January (Jan 2004 precipitation percentile map)have caused flooding in areas of western and southwestern Angola, and along the Zambezi River and its tributaries in the Caprivi region of northeastern Namibia. Heavy rains in the Huambo province of west-central Angola closed roads and kept relief aid from reaching about 830,000 people in the region (IRIN). Large numbers of people displaced by the lengthy civil war in Angola, which ended in 2002, have begun resettling in the country. Two bridges in Bie province along routes used by WFP for transporting relief aid to returning refugees were destroyed by heavy rainfall (IRIN). Flooding has also caused heavy crop losses in the region. Mines left over from the war shifted position due to the heavy rains and killed as many as twelve people. Flooding along the Cunene River in Angola prompted officials to release water from the Ruacana Hydro Power station in late January, causing the river to rise downstream in northwestern Namibia (DFO). In the northeastern region of Caprivi, about 4,900 people have been affected by rising flood waters, which have flooded crops along the Zambezi River (IRIN).

Agriculture - Burundi,Kenya,Tanzania  Below-normal amounts of precipitation fell in Burundi, Kenya, and Tanzania during the last few months of 2003. Most of the affected areas have two rainy seasons, with the short October-December rains performing poorly in 2003. Beans and sweet potato crops in Burundi were among the most affected by the poor and irregular rainfall. Low yields have been specifically reported in the province of Kirundo where relief aid is urgently needed. The poor rains are expected to increase the number of those in need of relief in Tanzania as well. Conditions are reportedly getting worse in the Dodoma, Shinyanga, and Singida regions. Initial estimates made in 2003 that 1.9 million people would require food aid in 2004 may need to be revised upward, particularly in those regions. In Kenya, the Central, Coast, and Eastern provinces were most affected by the poor short rains as were agro-pastoral areas in southern Rift Valley province. In some areas, water has become increasingly scarce, contributing to a decline in livestock production and a nearly 70 percent drop in maize production. Conditions improved in some areas of Kenya, however, with heavy rainfall in January. While the precipitation improved water resources for livestock herders, it came too late to help the stunted and wilted crops. Food security is still expected to be a problem, and the government is currently assessing the status of food shortages and food relief needs across the country. (IRIN, IRIN, IRIN, IRIN, IRIN)

The latest IRI seasonal forecast for the season of the long rains in East Africa suggests a slightly enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for much of northern and eastern Kenya and southern and coastal Somalia. Increased probabilities of below-normal precipitation are indicated for parts of western and southern Tanzania as well during March-May 2004.

Agriculture - Ethiopia,Sudan  Ethiopia had one of its best harvests in five years, and the Sudan experienced a record cereal harvest of 6.3 million metric tons due to improved precipitation during the June-September rainy season, and better distribution of seeds and fertilizers to farmers, according to the FAO and WFP. In Ethiopia, 13 million tons of cereals and pulses were harvested, a total which was up 46 percent from 2002/03, and 11 percent above the previous five-year average. The cereal harvest in the Sudan was 63 percent higher than the 2002/03 harvest and 47 percent above the previous five-year average. Although the harvest was a great improvement in both countries, as many as 3.6 million people in the Sudan and 7 million people in Ethiopia will still require food aid during 2004. (IRIN, IRIN)

Agriculture - Senegal  Like several other countries in the West African Sahel, Senegal benefited from good rainfall (July-September 2003 WASP Index) that contributed to record crop production during the 2003 growing season. Overall grain production rose 91 percent from 2002 to 1.5 million tons. Total crop production was 40 percent higher than the latest five-year average as well, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Production of the millet crop (a staple) increased 50 percent from 2002. Production of groundnut (peanut) and cotton, both of which are export crops, increased 71 percent and 40 percent, respectively. (IRIN)

Hazards - Malaysia  As many as 6,900 people near Kuching in Sarawak, Malaysia on northwestern Borneo were displaced by days of heavy monsoon rainfall (Jan 2004 percentile map) and flooding. According to some reports, floodwaters were two meters deep in some villages near Kuching. (NASA, DFO)

Energy - Sri Lanka  Below-average precipitation during late 2003, particularly in December, is affecting the energy sector in Sri Lanka. Much of the island nation received about half of its normal amount of precipitation during December, which normally plays an important role in its primary rainy season. These poor rains aggravated drought conditions that already existed in portions of the country and caused water levels in the reservoirs used for hydropower production to fall. Sources from the Ceylon Electricity Board have warned that a major power cut is imminent due to the low reservoirs. (Daily News, Meteorological Dept. of Sri Lanka)

Hazards - Bolivia,Peru  The rainy season in the Peruvian and Bolivian highlands, which generally lasts from November to March, got into full swing during December and January, bringing heavy seasonal rainfall, hailstorms, and landslides. The most affected departments in Peru, including San Martin, Madre De Dios, Cusco, Puno, Apurimac and Ayacucho, suffered damage to infrastructure and agricultural lands. Four deaths were reported, and over 3,600 homes were lost. The government in Peru is providing relief, though it has not yet declared the damages as severe.

The seasonal rains were more destructive in neighboring Bolivia. At least 50 people were killed when the Chapare River flooded in December. Reports of flooding were received from across the country, including the cities of El Alto, La Paz, Cochabamba, and Santa Cruz, as tens of thousands were affected and cattle and crops were destroyed. The city of Trinidad was hit particularly hard when it received 240 mm (9.4 inches) of precipitation in 14 hours. It was reportedly the most intense rainfall in the area in over 60 years. Approximately half of the inhabitants, about 45,000 people, were affected by the resulting flood waters that covered over 90 percent of the town. National authorities and NGOs are monitoring dengue, as the number of cases of the disease is growing. (IFRC, ReliefWeb, MSF, DFO, WFP, Government of Peru, IFRC)

Hazards - Brazil  Heavy rainfall brought extensive flooding and mudslides to 16 states in northeast and southeast Brazil during late-December and January, killing at least 119 people. The rains in southeastern Brazil came during the region's climatological rainy season corresponding to when the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) has its greatest influence on the region. Heavy rains and flooding affected some of the same regions during early 2003. (February 2003 CID Report) The states of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, as well as the city of Belo Horizonte, declared states of emergency, while the states of Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro were also affected. In contrast, the affected states in northeastern Brazil, including Sergipe, Ceara, Piaui, Alagoas, Bahia, and Pernambuco, are generally relatively dry during December and January. The floods in the northeast greatly affected the poor families living along the low-lying river banks, particularly along the Paranaiba and Poti Rivers. Overall, the floods and mudslides affected 120,000 Brazilians, destroyed over 4000 homes, and caused US$68 million in damage across the country. Agricultural interests have also been affected by the floooding, as fruit production is down 10 percent in the northeast and productivity in soy fields in the central and southern states had reportedly declined. (DFO, IFRC, BBC, Reuters)

The most recent IRI seasonal precipitation forecast for March-May indicates an enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation in northeastern Brazil.