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Current ENSO Information
Summary of ENSO Model Forecasts18 March 2003
Note on interpreting model forecastsThe following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and statistical models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping 3-month periods. Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical performance, are not equal to one another. The skills also generally decrease as the lead time increases. Thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year--namely, they are better when made between June and December than when they are made between February and May. Differences among the forecasts of the models reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the forecast of the possible future SST scenario.Discussion of current forecastsThe set of dynamical and statistical model forecasts issued during late February and early March 2003 shows a range of possible sea surface temperature conditions for the coming 2 to 9 months (March - April - May through October - November - December 2003). Most models are indicating a continuation of weakening of the already dissipated El Nino over the next 2 months. About half of the models forecast sea surface temperatures sufficient to be called an El Nino for April - May - June (0.45 degrees C or more above average in the Nino 3.4 region for the seasonal average). For July - August - September many of the models forecast near-neutral conditions, although some of them forecast warm ENSO conditions and a few forecast the onset of cold (La Nina) ENSO conditions.
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